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County home sales take a big leap

Discussion in 'Oregon' started by Roscoeman, May 5, 2009.

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  1. Roscoeman

    Roscoeman Member

    0
    Aug 18, 2005
    Professional Status:
    Certified Residential Appraiser
    State:
    Oregon
  2. Mark A Rewbury

    Mark A Rewbury Member

    0
    Jan 5, 2004
    Professional Status:
    Certified Residential Appraiser
    State:
    Florida
    Seem's like really good news for the north west. I hope your State recovers. Florida, however will be a basket case for years to come.
     
  3. OSU Beavers

    OSU Beavers Elite Member

    25
    Jan 10, 2007
    Professional Status:
    Licensed Appraiser
    State:
    Oregon
  4. OSU Beavers

    OSU Beavers Elite Member

    25
    Jan 10, 2007
    Professional Status:
    Licensed Appraiser
    State:
    Oregon
  5. The Dog

    The Dog Senior Member

    0
    Apr 18, 2005
    Professional Status:
    Certified General Appraiser
    State:
    Oregon
    I have a different and more skeptic take on the article.

    When you analyze the data, I believe you will find that the value has not gone up, but has actually dropped slightly. You will see that sellers today are actually getting a little more realistic in pricing, but most important, you will find that 50+% of the closed sales are foreclosure, REO or short sales. In verifying those foreclosure sales I find a large number being purchased by investors with the anticipation of little to no return for the next couple years, but purchasing for long term (10+ years). A lot of those sales are cash transactions and the amount of financing available is still limited in this area.

    Then look at the number of new foreclosure notices in the paper or title company website, and the whole article becomes a Realtor pretending we are out of the woods without backup. We have more foreclosures coming on the market than we are presently selling. We are nowhere close to reducing the REO inventory and it is still driving prices down. The REO inventory is still increasing and the prices are still not settled. Take a look at the number of price reductions on the market every day.

    We have on a daily average around 40 listings coming on the market, we have on average 30+ price reductions and around 20 listings expering per day. Compare that to the 7-10 listings that go in escrow and 4-6 listings that close on a daily basis average and the picture does not look like an upswing market.

    Looking at everything, we are no where close to what the Realtor community wants the public to believe. Remember, in order to sell, the real estate sales community has to create a real or make believe desire in the buying public based on the anticipation that we have limited supply and a lot of demand.

    I don't believe we have reached bottom yet. We are approaching the busy season and will settle a little over the next couple months with more sales and slower reductions in value, but the basic underlying economic news has not changed and will not change in the near future. There is no reason for the picture to have changed, except real or created perception in the public mind.

    Statistics is a game and three people can and will read different interpretations into the same data.

    As always, the skeptic when it comes to believing others.:nono:
     
  6. Roscoeman

    Roscoeman Member

    0
    Aug 18, 2005
    Professional Status:
    Certified Residential Appraiser
    State:
    Oregon
    Dog,

    You took the words right out of my mouth.

    Last night on Channel 10, our MLS and a realtor really made this market sound good. I about threw up!

    As a friend told me, he believes based on this article it could start a frenzy and what if you were a first time home buyer, bought a home and realized a year later you paid to much. Then you face foreclosure or something. This stuff makes me crazy!!!
     
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