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  #1  
Old 12-28-2008, 10:27 AM
Dropindeep's Avatar
Dropindeep Dropindeep is offline
 
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Default What now---Revised?

So I just read the revised HVCC that came out on the 23rd. Basically, we are done for. I am an AR level appraiser. I do not have a lot of non-lender work, not for lack of trying, they just want to use AGís or MAIís.



Even if I set myself up as an AMC, and went after it in that direction, it still would not work because the Lender (not the MB) needs to select the appraiser/AMC, etc. I refuse to work for the FEES the AMCís are paying and the required 24-48 hour turn times. I refuse to do sub-standard work, and do shortcuts to meet these time lines.



I worked hard for the last six years to get to this point, and with one stroke of the pen, I am done. I have four months to find a new career to support my family.



What are your thoughts on this, and where does the typical appraiser go from here?
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Old 12-28-2008, 12:20 PM
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George Hatch George Hatch is offline
 
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Default Not exactly a popular opinion to express, but.

The HVCC Agreement was signed back in March. You've had a lot more time than 4 months to see this coming and develop your options.

The day the HVCC Agreement was signed by the GSEs was the day the MB-centric business model entered into a limited remaining economic life. Once proposed, it was going to happen, whether via ratification of the HVCC or by getting written into regulation or law. This bailout cycle is yet young; these prohibitions might still end up getting codified into regulation or law, anyway. I'd say the odds of comparable limitations spreading to FHA and other conduits is pretty high.

There have been several proposals for alternatives to AMC domination. Perhaps if more appraisers - such as yourself, for example - had signed on and supported those alternatives one or more of them would farther along by now. It wouldn't have cost you anything to support them before and you don't have much to lose by supporting them now. That's one thing you can do for yourself.

I would say that appraisers should be exercising their choices now, so that they have something going as the phones stop ringing. If you need the money more than you need to be self-employed then perhaps it's time to consider getting a job. If you can't get a job in the appraisal business then perhaps you might be able to go back to the occupation you had prior getting into this business 6 years ago, or some other line of work.

The only thing I would say that you must do is to stop waiting for the situation to somehow improve, and do something for yourself. There have always been choices and compromises to be made and results to be reconciled with. Pick the one that's best for you and work it as best you can. Then commit to being as happy as you can be with your choice under the circumstances.

There's no future in looking back.

BTW, in 2001 there were less than 11,000 licensees in California; by 2007 that number had doubled. More than 100% of that increase was due to the influx of new residential appraisers, such as yourself. There was never any way that the "typical residential appraiser" who came in during that period was ever going to survive this cycle anyway. The brutal attrition process we are going through now was born as the direct result of excesses that (as a group) we allowed and enabled and profited from back then.

Whether you ever realized it or not, you will need to be the atypical appraiser in order to get through this. You'll never make it by doing the same thing as the lower 50%.
  #3  
Old 12-28-2008, 12:32 PM
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Dropindeep Dropindeep is offline
 
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Default

i did sign on to those things back in march and after.

True I was one of those that jumped in on be half of a good friend, (MAI) that trained me.

I did see the drop in business and took a part time job to supplement my income.

I just don't believe an appraiser can survive this if doing MB work.

Like I said, w/o more years of experiance , Non-lender work is not an option.

I guess you win since you have been at this longer!

Thanks
  #4  
Old 12-28-2008, 12:32 PM
Doug Wegener Doug Wegener is offline
 
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Location: Sun City
State: California
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Default Six years of work

Quote:
Originally Posted by Craig Wallace View Post
So I just read the revised HVCC that came out on the 23rd. Basically, we are done for. I am an AR level appraiser. I do not have a lot of non-lender work, not for lack of trying, they just want to use AGís or MAIís.



Even if I set myself up as an AMC, and went after it in that direction, it still would not work because the Lender (not the MB) needs to select the appraiser/AMC, etc. I refuse to work for the FEES the AMCís are paying and the required 24-48 hour turn times. I refuse to do sub-standard work, and do shortcuts to meet these time lines.



I worked hard for the last six years to get to this point, and with one stroke of the pen, I am done. I have four months to find a new career to support my family.



What are your thoughts on this, and where does the typical appraiser go from here?

It is a sad situation. Honesty, hard work, and even education are not being rewarded.


There should be some FHA work out there at full fee since (unless I'm wrong) that is not
covered.

In time I think this arrangement will not work as the competent appraisers will not be doing work for $175. There are going to be a lot of very bad appraisals.

Personally, I have my real estate broker application with the State now. I used to sell real estate and appraiser experience can be used to get a broker license (along with some qualifying classes). I don't see much future in residential appraising for awhile, maybe even permanently.

Its hard to be hopeful with the current arrangement.
  #5  
Old 12-28-2008, 01:21 PM
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Michigan CG Michigan CG is offline
 
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Craig Wallace View Post
....True I was one of those that jumped in on be half of a good friend, (MAI) that trained me......
Why didn't you stay with him and learn commercial? That was your biggest mistake.
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  #6  
Old 12-28-2008, 01:45 PM
Highlander416 Highlander416 is online now
 
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Default

I don't think a lack of writing our Congressman or commenting on the HVCC got us here. I really don't think they were reading our letters and e-mails anyway. I spent a lot of time in 2008 writing notes and making calls. I really thought that was how we could make a difference. Once the bailouts started, I realized it was no good. Even if millions of people call and write, the elected folks or govt folks do what they are lobbied to do by those with big checks. I do think a lot of people are finally waking up to this reality. I know I am. I have no answers on what to do about it. Term limits might be helpful tho.

George Hatch is right. This was decided back in March. During the comment period, I am sure hundreds and hundreds of letters and e-mails were sent warning of AMC domination and manipulation. Even AI and the other groups wrote on it. Yet, I don't see one change to even cosmetically address our worries. This agreement effects an entire field of workers, yet not one sentence on our biggest concern.

So, we look to the butterfly effect. These changes will cause both expected and unexpected results.
  #7  
Old 12-28-2008, 04:23 PM
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Dropindeep Dropindeep is offline
 
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Default

my biggest mistake was not finishing my college degree and working full time as a commercial Construction estimator.

I did not stay with the MAI to learn commercial because he did not have the time for that, I tried.
  #8  
Old 12-28-2008, 04:32 PM
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Dropindeep Dropindeep is offline
 
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Default

It seems anyone who became an appraiser after 2001 is looked down upon with distaste from anyone who started in the 80's or 90's. I am tired of trying to defend myself. I got into this because of a MAI and beacuse I was tired on working in a highrise in downtown LA for a large General Contractor.

We who got in after 2001 are not a bunch of "skippy appraisers"........!
  #9  
Old 12-28-2008, 05:36 PM
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George Hatch George Hatch is offline
 
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Default

Nobody said you were a skippy. All I'm pointing out is that the influx of people who came into the business during our last population boom is what has created the oversupply that has given the AMCs the upper hand during this bust.

A similar high-attrition environment occurred back during the early-mid 1990s, wherein 1/3 of the fully licensed/certified appraisers here in California got starved out. There again, it was the atypical junior appraisers who avoided getting flushed; not the ones who relied solely on what they had done before.
  #10  
Old 12-29-2008, 12:00 PM
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SmilingDog SmilingDog is offline
 
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Default

We should not compare the attrition in the mid-1990's with the way the HVCC will destroy what remains of the appraisal profession. It is two quite different things and different time periods.

The HVCC dictates that MB's can not order directly from appraisers. Big mistake. It will destroy many good lenders out there also.

The HVCC goes against everything this country stood for... it eliminates free enterprise and the spirit of good will that comes from honest free competition.

To assume that we stood on the sidelines for a year and did nothing is a flagrant disregard for honest hard working appraisers. I personally sent many letters, emails, and personal contacts with many people in the know and with my representatives from congress. None were interested in rocking the boat, as it does not affect them. Losing 20,000 votes throughout California was not a big deal...and for good reason.

I have also personally discussed training with MAI's and CG's. None wanted to take the time (except one, but he passed away before we could do anything...rest his soul). And as posted, attorney and non-lender work goes to CG's and MAI's. Even with my 20 years experience I was unable to crack that market of non-lender work.

The HVCC has always been about destroying jobs and controlling free enterprise. No where in there are there any measures to sanction bad appraisers. Our own state agency is not doing anything about it.

This is not going to be an attrition, but rather a mass grave for all residential appraisers unwilling to work for the AMC's low fees.
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