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  #1  
Old 10-22-2009, 09:54 AM
Mike Kennedy's Avatar
Mike Kennedy Mike Kennedy is online now
 
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Post Fhfa V Case Shiller House Price Indices.realistic?

1. What is the value of the HPI? The HPI is a broad measure of the movement of single-family house prices. It serves as a timely, accurate indicator of house price trends at various geographic levels. It also provides housing economists with an analytical tool that is useful for estimating changes in the rates of mortgage defaults, prepayments and housing affordability in specific geographic areas. The HPI is a measure designed to capture changes in the value of single-family homes in the U.S. as a whole, in various regions and in smaller areas. The HPI is published by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) using data provided by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), one of FHFA’s predecessor agencies, began publishing the HPI in the fourth quarter of 1995.

2. What transactions are covered in the HPI? The House Price Index is based on transactions involving conforming, conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included. Conforming refers to a mortgage that both meets the underwriting guidelines of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac and that does not exceed the conforming loan limit. For loans originated in 2009, the loan limit has been set by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. That Act, in conjuction with prior legislation, allows for loan limits up to $729,750 for one-unit properties in certain high-cost areas in the continental United States.

Conventional mortgages are those that are neither insured nor guaranteed by the FHA, VA, or other federal government entities. Mortgages on properties financed by government-insured loans, such as FHA or VA mortgages, are excluded from the HPI, as are properties with mortgages whose principal amount exceeds the conforming loan limit. Mortgage transactions on condominiums, cooperatives, multi-unit properties, and planned unit developments are also excluded.

3. How is the HPI computed? The HPI is a weighted, repeat-sales index, meaning that it measures average price changes in repeat sales or refinancings on the same properties. This information is obtained by reviewing repeat mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac since January 1975. The HPI is updated each quarter as additional mortgages are purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The new mortgage acquisitions are used to identify repeat transactions for the most recent quarter and for each quarter since the first quarter of 1975.

4. How often is the HPI published? A full release is provided every three months, approximately two months after the end of the previous quarter. Beginning in March 2008, OFHEO began publishing monthly indexes for Census Divisions and the United States. FHFA continues publishing and updating these indexes each month.

5. How is the HPI updated? Each month, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac provide FHFA with information on their most recent mortgage transactions. These data are combined with the data from previous years to establish price differentials on properties where more than one mortgage transaction has occurred. The data are merged, creating an updated historical database that is then used to estimate the HPI.

6. How do I interpret “four-quarter,” “one-year,” “annual,” and “one-quarter” price changes? The “four-quarter” percentage change in home values is simply the price change relative to the same quarter one year earlier. For example, if the HPI release is for the second quarter, then the “four-quarter” price change reports the percentage change in values relative to the second quarter of the prior year. It reflects the best estimate for how much the value of a typical property increased over the four-quarter period (FAQ #2 reports the types of properties included in this estimate). “One-year” and “annual” appreciation are used synonymously with “four-quarter” appreciation in the full quarterly HPI releases.

Similar to the “four-quarter” price changes, the “one-quarter” percentage change estimates the percentage change in home values relative to the prior quarter. Please note that, in estimating the quarter price index, all observations within a given quarter are pooled together; no distinction is made between transactions occurring in different months. As such, the “four-quarter” and “one-quarter” changes compare typical values throughout a quarter against valuations during a prior quarter. The appreciation rates do not compare values at the end of a quarter against values at the end of a prior quarter.

7. How are Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and Metropolitan Divisions defined and what criteria are used to determine whether an MSA index is published? MSAs are defined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). If specified criteria are met and an MSA contains a single core population greater than 2.5 million, the MSA is divided into Metropolitan Divisions. The following MSAs have been divided into Metropolitan Divisions: Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH; Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI; Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX; Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI; Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA; Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL; New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA; Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD; San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA; Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA and Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV. For these MSAs, FHFA reports data for each Division, rather than the MSA as a whole. FHFA requires that an MSA (or Metropolitan Division) must have at least 1,000 total transactions before it may be published. Additionally, an MSA or Division must have had at least 10 transactions in any given quarter for that quarterly value to be published. Blanks are displayed where this criterion is not met.

8. Does FHFA use the November 2008 revised Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and Divisions? Yes, FHFA uses the revised Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and Divisions as defined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in November 2008. These MSAs and Divisions are based on Census data. According to OMB, an MSA comprises the central county or counties containing the core, plus adjacent outlying counties having a high degree of social and economic integration with the central county as measured through commuting. For information about the current MSAs, please visit: http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/bullet...2009/09-01.pdf.

9. What geographic areas are covered by the House Price Index? The HPI includes provides indexes for all nine Census Divisions, the 50 states and the District of Columbia, and every Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) in the U.S., excluding Puerto Rico. OMB recognizes 366 MSAs, 11 of which are subdivided into a total of 29 Metropolitan Divisions. As noted earlier, FHFA produces indexes for the Divisions where they are available, in lieu of producing a single index for the MSA. In total, 384 indexes are released: 355 for the MSAs that do not have Metropolitan Divisions and 29 Division indexes. The starting dates for indexes differ and are determined by a minimum transaction threshold; index values are not provided for periods before at least 1,000 transactions have been accumulated.

In each release, FHFA publishes rankings and quarterly, annual, and five-year rates of changes for the MSAs and Metropolitan Divisions that have at least 15,000 transactions over the prior 10 years. In this release, 296 MSAs and Metropolitan Divisions satisfy this criterion. For the remaining areas MSAs and Divisions, one-year and five-year rates of change are provided.

10. Where can I access MSA index numbers and standard errors for each year and quarter? In addition to the information displayed in the MSA tables, FHFA makes available MSA indexes and standard errors. The data are available in ASCII format and may be accessed at http://www.fhfa.gov/Default.aspx?Page=87.

11. Why is the HPI based on Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac mortgages? FHFA has access to this information by virtue of its role as the federal regulator responsible for ensuring the financial safety and soundness of these government-sponsored enterprises. Chartered by Congress for the purpose of creating a reliable supply of mortgage funds for homebuyers, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the largest mortgage finance institutions in the United States representing 40 percent of total outstanding mortgages.

12. How does the House Price Index differ from the Census Bureau’s Constant Quality House Price Index (CQHPI)? The HPI published by FHFA covers far more transactions than the Commerce Department survey. The CQHPI covers sales of new homes and homes for sale, based on a sample of about 14,000 transactions annually, gathered through monthly surveys. The quarterly HPI is based on more than 36 million repeat transaction pairs over 34 years. This gives a more accurate reflection of current property values than the Commerce index. The HPI also can be updated efficiently using data collected by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the normal course of their business activity.

13. How does the HPI differ from the S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price indexes? Although both indexes employ the same fundamental repeat-valuations approach, there are a number of data and methodology differences. Among the dissimilarities:

a. The S&P/Case-Shiller indexes only use purchase prices in index calibration, while the all-transactions HPI also includes refinance appraisals. FHFA’s purchase only series is restricted to purchase prices, as are the S&P/Case-Shiller indexes.

b. FHFA’s valuation data are derived from conforming, conventional mortgages provided by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The S&P/Case-Shiller indexes use information obtained from county assessor and recorder offices.

c. The S&P/Case-Shiller indexes are value-weighted, meaning that price trends for more expensive homes have greater influence on estimated price changes than other homes. FHFA’s index weights price trends equally for all properties.

d. The geographic coverage of the indexes differs. The S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, for example, does not have valuation data from 13 states. FHFA’s U.S. index is calculated using data from all states.

For details concerning these and other differences, consult the HPI Technical Description (see http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/896/hpi_tech.pdf) and the S&P/Case-Shiller methodology materials.
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  #2  
Old 10-22-2009, 10:11 AM
Randolph Kinney Randolph Kinney is offline
 
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Quote:
b. FHFA’s valuation data are derived from conforming, conventional mortgages provided by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The S&P/Case-Shiller indexes use information obtained from county assessor and recorder offices.
That is a big big difference. Ignoring purchases of more expensive homes does not measure the "market".

Expanding the conventional limit to $729k captures more mortgage transactions for FHFA but it does not represent them continuously. Those limits are subject to political whims.

Quote:
c. The S&P/Case-Shiller indexes are value-weighted, meaning that price trends for more expensive homes have greater influence on estimated price changes than other homes. FHFA’s index weights price trends equally for all properties.
S&P gives low tier, medium tier and high tier break outs. FHFA does not account for volume differences among the tiers. If the volume of low tier prices increases, the median price falls.

Quote:
d. The geographic coverage of the indexes differs. The S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, for example, does not have valuation data from 13 states. FHFA’s U.S. index is calculated using data from all states.
FHFA dilutes the contribution of MSA sales with sales in the boondocks.

Overall, the S&P is more useful as it really defines the health of the residential market.
  #3  
Old 10-22-2009, 08:18 PM
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Terrel L. Shields Terrel L. Shields is offline
 
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I think Case-Shiller is meant to capture the urban market and like you say, the less volatile rural areas are not allowed to dampen the price swings and using only secondary market conforming loans zeros the data into the most vanilla houses out there. Which is fine. Shiller was pondering the meaning of the sharp change from Aug to Sep and was loath to suggest that it was entirely due to the $8000 credit. But he made it clear such a large change 7% or so, was the largest they've ever tracked and was difficult to explain away.
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  #4  
Old 10-23-2009, 12:00 AM
Randolph Kinney Randolph Kinney is offline
 
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Something is at work to swing home prices to increasing. From where I am, it is first time buyers and investors. It is primarily in the low tier price homes. It is mostly REO and short sale homes. There is a lot of VA and FHA financing, like 40 to 50% of the low tier price homes.

It will be interesting to see if the investors have more appetite left for REOs. I understand there is more coming.
  #5  
Old 10-23-2009, 12:34 AM
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I'm becoming convinced that Mike K. doesn't sleep.
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  #6  
Old 10-23-2009, 03:06 PM
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Terrel L. Shields Terrel L. Shields is offline
 
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Quote:
Mike K. doesn't sleep.
Him and the Pinkerton Agency

We sure have a lot of property and again FHA and VA financed....which begs the question. With FHA, Fannie and Freddy said to be upside down and full of toxic mortgages.....how can they survive and how can they loan more money except as taxpayer bail out.

Higher prices have yet to come here, but sales are up...and a high percentage are REO sales. And Freddy announced that their default rate was up to 3.3%...the highest ever.
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