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Old 12-27-2004, 12:49 AM
Benjamin Singleton Benjamin Singleton is offline
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Texas
State: Texas
Professional Status: Certified General Appraiser
Posts: 333

What will the year 2005 be like in terms of work volume? How will business go this year? 2005 only please.
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Old 12-27-2004, 06:42 AM
Richard Carlsen's Avatar
Richard Carlsen Richard Carlsen is offline
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Tip of the Mitt: Northern Michigan
State: Michigan
Professional Status: Licensed Appraiser
Posts: 8,372

Good question Benjamin. Wish I had a good answer.

I suspect it will continue to be a solid year economically now that we are fully into our economic recovery. Such things as the the dollar dropping in value should lead to American goods becoming much more competitive overseas and that should help the manufacturing sector and jobs. As to all of that translating to a good year for a specific appraiser is not predictable. That is up to the individual.

I don't think we've seen the last of comp checks, rush orders, LO's pushing value or drive-bys. I do think that less and less emphasis will continue to be placed on the appraisal as a major determinator document in lending determination and more and more on the credit worthiness of the borrower as the deciding factor in home loans.

I personally anticipate doing more 2055's this coming year. It is also the year to start hitting the PMI removal market.

2005 will defiantly be the year of the PIA (Payment In Advance or CAD as some like to call it) for this appraiser as once more, looking at the final numbers for 2004, we find that there are some companies who have taken advantage of our trusting good nature, our desire and zeal to service/assist our clients and by our downright gullibility by not paying for the appraisals we did for them.
Now it's time to go fishing and ride the bike........
Old 12-27-2004, 08:54 AM
Otis Key's Avatar
Otis Key Otis Key is offline
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Mile High
State: New Mexico
Professional Status: Certified Residential Appraiser
Posts: 15,970

Don't know either Benjamin............I think Bobby Bucks still has the crystal ball and he won't give it up. Someone wake him up so he can pipe in with that viewing.
Old 12-27-2004, 09:42 AM
Restrain Restrain is offline
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Port Charlotte, FL
State: Florida
Professional Status: Certified General Appraiser
Posts: 10,546

In our market, continued declining market values, coupled with major layoffs at such companies as EDS, Delta Airlines (3000 jobs), downsizing of contractors at DFW airport. High-dollar jobs to be replaced by jobs paying 50% or less, such as phone solicitors at Countrywide, etc.

So, REOs will continue strong, builders will be pushing the Cadillac in the garage, equity loans up.
Old 12-27-2004, 10:42 AM
Ray Miller's Avatar
Ray Miller Ray Miller is offline
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Southwest Wisconsin
State: Wisconsin
Professional Status: Licensed Appraiser
Posts: 12,000

As the inventory of used homes is droping in the rural area. I look for a slow down in sales in resales.

As A paper dries up with higher interest rates, a slow down in new homes sales

B & C paper will keep the skippies busy.

Divorce is climbing, so busy there.

REO will stay up.

ERC about the same, maybe a slight increase, as business increases and the Madison Business market and UW stays hot.

Commercial to increase somewhat for the small business person.

All in all a slow down over last year. I would think a 25% to 40% decrease.

Which I would welcome.
Old 12-27-2004, 11:05 AM
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JSmith43 JSmith43 is offline
Join Date: May 2003
State: California
Professional Status: Certified General Appraiser
Posts: 16,711

How will business go this year? 2005 only please.
I don't have to back any of these comments up, right?

The appraisal business should be flat to down in CA. Refinances will be a minimal part of total loan production. New construction should be tempered by modest increase in rates.

Lender relationships will be hard to cultivate. What new could appraisers possibly offer that is ethical to offer? Turn time will not be a problem & the lenders are unlikely to experiment with new service providers.

Niche marketing will be taken to a new level by appraisers desiring fuller employment. PMI removal has been mentioned.
Appraisers that work in the financial services industry will figure out that what they will have to do is provide property valuation services to all comers. However, the most successful ones will market to specific targets.

Someone somewhere will get themselves an armored up Hummer, a set of Kelvins & a packing permit. They will market to family law practicioners that they do the hard appraisals, you know, the one's the attorney himself/herself is afraid to tackle. Disputed divorces, property valuations for bail bondsmen, that sort of thing. That kind of promotion will open up some doors for them. The strategy is a bet that future assignments from the same source are much less likely to be as
risk filled.

Heck, why not film the events & put a show in syndication with cable outlets? Dog, the appraiser!
Some will specialize in inspecting spore infested REO's, etc (after the proper training & equipment are obtained). The client/s they snag are likely to have easier assignments in the future.

In summary, I forcast a brave new world for appraisers in 2005
No ignored posters at this time. Best to all for the holidays & the coming year!
Old 12-27-2004, 11:09 AM
Don Clark's Avatar
Don Clark Don Clark is offline
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Virginia Beach, Virginia
State: Virginia
Professional Status: Certified Residential Appraiser
Posts: 9,045

B) In my market it should be about the same as 2004. I do anticipate more 2055's as well as other "lesser" forms of appraisals. Look for more advertising of ARM's.Foreclosures unfortunately may go up. In my state of Virginia most appraisers will renew their license this year so I may do extra CE courses, and in my license state of North Carolina I expect to do a few CE courses as well. So far, December has been better than expected and may portend the year ahead.
AQB Certified USPAP Instructor,Member VaCAP,NCPAC, Expert Witness, Consultant/Peer Assistance
Old 12-27-2004, 11:34 AM
The Matrix The Matrix is offline
Join Date: Apr 2003
State: Colorado
Professional Status: Certified General Appraiser
Posts: 1,071

AVM's will claim they have developed a new type of whizzy-loo logic which will make conventional appraisals unnecessary. When it all washes out the new logic system will be found to be just more hype. The Appraisal Institute will probably endorse and finance the new AVM's at the expense of their membership. Institute dues will have to be raised again in 2006 to cover the cost of yet another boondoggle.
Old 12-27-2004, 11:38 AM
Ray Miller's Avatar
Ray Miller Ray Miller is offline
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Southwest Wisconsin
State: Wisconsin
Professional Status: Licensed Appraiser
Posts: 12,000

PMI removal has been mentioned
In the area I work this could cause a major problem. Skippie brought the value in way way way high to get value needed.

Now they are having an appraisal done to remove PMI and find they are several thousands of dollars over valued.

But I guess skippie will move into this market also.
Old 12-27-2004, 12:33 PM
Doug in NC's Avatar
Doug in NC Doug in NC is offline
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: NC Triangle
State: North Carolina
Professional Status: Certified Residential Appraiser
Posts: 4,161

For the appraisal market, mortgage lending sector in particular, I expect a Bear market. Home sales are slowing and interest rates are rising.
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