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  #1  
Old 12-29-2004, 12:51 PM
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Richard Carlsen Richard Carlsen is offline
 
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http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=...my_13&printer=1

This is a followup to an earlier post where we discussed the lag in New House Sales.

This article reads in part:

Quote:
The National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday that sales, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, totaled an all-time monthly high of 6.94 million units, representing a 2.7 percent increase from October's pace.


While some other recent reports raised questions as to whether the high-flying housing market might be losing a bit of altitude, Wednesday's report suggested the sector is still humming along.

"So far, the stars have been aligned" for the housing market, said David Lereah, the association's chief economist, referring to low mortgage rates, good demand and a solid economic recovery.

The latest snapshot of demand for previously owned homes was better than economists were expecting. They were forecasting sales to hold steady.

The previous, monthly high record pace of sales 6.92 million unit was set in June.

Sales for October totaled 6.76 million units, on an annualized basis, according to revised figures. That was slightly higher than initially reported.
New house sales were down but existing house sales soared. Must be a discussion point in there somewhere.
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Old 12-29-2004, 07:18 PM
Jim Bartley Jim Bartley is offline
 
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On CNBC a few weeks back they had some guru on and he said that he thought the housing market might take a dive ala the Nasdaq. But he also said it would be at least 10 years. He said the market currently has similar dynamics as stocks did back in the early-mid '90's. In my area it has slowed some, but this is typical for the time of year. I think we will have a very strong spring.
  #3  
Old 12-29-2004, 07:37 PM
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These gurus don't know squat!!! If they did they wouldn't speak in such generalities. The first, second and third principals in Real Estate are LOCATION!!!!


These idiots wouldn't know how to make money in my market or yours. RE having the same dynamics as stocks. Just garbage. Someone explain to me the 2 ways that RE is the same as Wall Street.

The illiquidity, utility, management, maintenance ... sure it's just like stock investing.

How good was this guy on predicting a 10 year peek into the stock market?? If it was any good, he'd be on a beach somewhere instead of insulting us with his drivel.


Now I feel better.
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Old 12-29-2004, 07:47 PM
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I can think of one similarity...like stocks in the late 90's, John and Jane Public are gung ho about investing in real estate.

Case in point: My wife's cousin is all excited about her pending "investment" in a 2 bedroom located in a new conversion of a 1920's building in Oak Park. Small kitchen. No new HVAC. Not particularly close to the L. No parking. Mucho competion. Thinking she's going to make a bundle within a couple years.

You want in on this one Mike? :lol:

My point: The herd is almost always wrong.
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Old 12-29-2004, 07:56 PM
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New construction in our area is at an all time high; most houses are well in axcess of $500k, along the shoreline - Resale housing is also much higher - typical of the differential -new vs old.

Some slowing has taken place, typical of the winter months, so the Spring should be decent and perhaps this year, we may even have a good summer market.

With the housing costs soaring all over the place, it makes me wonder how long it will survive; the market and the people - after all, the municipality's are jumping on the band wagon raising taxes to no end, if it all goes kablewy this time, the collateral damage may take a significant toll -bet nobody is ready for that B)


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Old 12-29-2004, 11:14 PM
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National figures have nada to do with my local market or yours.

Quote:
My point: The herd is almost always wrong.
Guess I already placed my bet on that, cuz the LA market has had plenty of irrational exuberance the last couple years or so. :P

Irrational exuberance. Maybe RE does have something in common with stocks.
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Old 12-30-2004, 06:05 AM
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Quote:
Originally posted by mike neff@Dec 29 2004, 06:37 PM
These idiots wouldn't know how to make money in my market or yours. RE having the same dynamics as stocks. Just garbage. Someone explain to me the 2 ways that RE is the same as Wall Street.

The illiquidity, utility, management, maintenance ... sure it's just like stock investing.
Real estate IS different than the stock market, and therein lies the problem.

There are too many "I'm gonna get rich" investors buying real estate who treat it like the stock market. The problems begin when they're borrowing the money to buy the 'stock' with little of their own out-of-pocket cash as a downpayment and it doesn't appreciate quickly. If they can't find tenants to cover the mortgage, or can't resell in a short amount of time in order to break even or profit, then the hemorraging can take them down quickly.
As with the stock market bubble, the last ones in will lose the most.
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  #8  
Old 12-30-2004, 06:16 AM
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Scott and Dee Dee,

I agree with the herd mentality commonality.
Re; OP condo, I would get in on it ( at the right price).

Dee Dee,

I don't agree with the last one in gets hurt the worst. I would rephrase that to say the one who purchased worst gets hurt the most. With your scenario it would mean that there is a time to sit on the sidelines and wait.

I'm buying as often as I can, however one must remember you make your money when you buy, not when you sell. There are great deals out there every day.
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  #9  
Old 12-30-2004, 09:36 AM
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I concur...location, location, location. My step-brother is building and selling million dollar condos in Phoenix...wouldnt happen here. I can move to Arkansas or Missouri and purchase a house just like my mine ($175,000) for under $100,000. Generalizations just don't work for real estate.

Currently working on an interesting assignment. Investor purchased a bank repo for around $100,000. He has completely renovated it (first class job). Beautiful house, stucco exterior, detached two car garage in addition to the attached one car. Contract is around $175,000. Only problem very busy street (locational) and the fact average sales price of similar sized trilevel is $135,000. Can you say....."over improvement" or "super-adequacy"? Guess who is going to be the bad guy in this one?
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  #10  
Old 12-30-2004, 10:03 AM
Bill Rose Bill Rose is offline
 
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Location, location, location is an antiquated phrase from the 50's. In this market, the house on a busy street sells for the same as the one on the cul-de-sac. The house 3 blocks for the beach sells for the same as the one 30 miles inland.

The 3 rules of real estate are: Always buy in a developing area, never buy less than 3 bedrooms, and never sell.
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