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  #1  
Old 07-28-2005, 12:52 PM
David R. Stevenson's Avatar
David R. Stevenson David R. Stevenson is offline
 
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CNBC did a poll showing that only 8% of property owners think their property is under-priced/under valued? or just under-valued?

I'm thinking NC Florida maybe that highly awaited critcal mass of baby boomers

looking for that retirement home in Florida. New Yorker's are a coming - they are

interested in the modulars.

I review appraisals for new homes .... some of these appraisers have market

value higher than replacement cost new - the adjustments to the not so

comparable homes appear to have littel relationship to the physical reality around

it. Seems these appraisers are being forced to "defacto forecast" values by making

"stroked" adjsutments to homes that don't comp.

But, I'm in an area of lots of speculation .... so, maybe they are right about the

value - but the reports - stink .... of manipulation ....
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Old 07-28-2005, 01:25 PM
Karl Karl is offline
 
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Just hung up from a BIG player head of thier Appraisal Department "Thank You for sending a report that makes sense with comps that are truly comparable. It seems that MANY Appraisers have lost thier way, INCLUDING the Appraiser that had DONE this home before YOU went out to do it!!! they send us what they THINK we want. He had asked me to review two Properties that the Borrower mentioned. I sent him the LISTING sheet of these two NEW custom homes that I didn't think were comparable to a 28 year old home the Lender agreed with me.

Hate those "ATTA BOYS" cause something else usually follows them.

MORAL of this is: Do the job RIGHT ----- SOMETIMES it does pay off.
  #3  
Old 07-28-2005, 03:01 PM
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Pamela Crowley (Florida) Pamela Crowley (Florida) is offline
 
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Sent one in a couple weeks ago where the fully justified cost approach was $190,000 and the sales comparison was $217,000.

Difference? Ready to move into 3 month old house that had never been lived in. The builders are now raising their prices to match the speculators asking prices.

BUT,

I'm also now seeing a growing number of vacant new houses and am thinking we've run out of the 'demand' of real people that actually want to live here.

1 year, even 6 months ago, if someone wanted a new house they were going to have to wait for it to be built or buy it from a speculator at an inflated price. Now, we have too many new houses ready to move into and the vacancy rate appears to be increasing along with the number of new houses being built. Last year you almost had to get in line and fight off the speculators to get a chance at a proposed construction property. Now, their finished, speculator owned, for sale or for rent, take your pick of dozens available to move into 3 months ago.

Used to be every new house under construction already had a pending contract. Now, nearly finished houses have the builder's sign in front that says "Available!".

Anybody wanna bet the builders will sell their new ready to move into houses ahead of the inflated speculator owned and been for sale for $50-100K more for over 3 months now?

I'm waiting to see the concessions, lower and lower asking prices. How long can these speculators hang on making their payments with no income from these houses? The majority still waiting for a buyer are no longer even mowing the lawns!

Fascinating to watch this 'progression' and wondering where we are going.

Keep watching those vacancy rates!!!!! Take a real good look around as you drive around now and pay attention, especially in the new projects.
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Old 07-28-2005, 03:10 PM
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David R. Stevenson David R. Stevenson is offline
 
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We got a new modular over here in Hampton on a "dumb dumb" lot for $184,900.

Its got no garage and a small front porch with 1,849 sf of living area.

The seller is a mobile home seller who also owns the park it is in - looks like a

planned trailer park - but he is going modular - with US 301 whistling in the back

ground ... I figure we got maybe 5 to 10 specs ready for occupancy in the next 60

days for the entire county - thats a small number if folks are wanting to relocate ...

Larger land holders building spec are going to try and over-price themselves to

see what kind of "real" land they are willing to develope. Absorption figures here

are in their infancy for new housing. We got about 28,000 folks in Bradford.
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Old 07-28-2005, 04:27 PM
george foster george foster is offline
 
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I'm also now seeing a growing number of vacant new houses and am thinking we've run out of the 'demand' of real people that actually want to live here.

Shades of the New England bust of '89/'90.

Both the residential & commercial markets became virtually saturated with new construction. The lenders never had a clue about supply and absorption, 'cause who's gonna tell/or who cares what your competitor is doing.

Subdivsions, strip malls, & condo projects came on line en masse, with no takers.

Love these major network news stories about property flipping. Last one was about a truck driver making $65k on a solo in less than a year.

Got former secretaries, turned real estate investors featured in a Boston Glode article who figured they will earn $600-$800k on a 2 year flip of 3 3-unit apartment buildings located in dirtbag neighborhoods.

Party on...
  #6  
Old 07-28-2005, 05:40 PM
Ted Martin Ted Martin is offline
 
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Last month a local spec builder in the upper end of the market dropped the prices on all of his unsold inventory -$20,000 each and told the agents to get them sold ASAP. As far as he is concerned the summer selling season is over and he doesn't want to get stuck with unsold homes.
  #7  
Old 07-29-2005, 07:49 AM
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Ray Miller Ray Miller is offline
 
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I really think the owenrs don't have a clue. They hear what some one said they sold or selling their home for. BS, all BS most of the time. Was out at a house yesterday afternoon and the owner is telling me that is 2 acres is worth 300K at Spring Green, WI. RIGHT! I just completed two divorce appraisals on the same rd with in a mile of him. The acres came in at $10,000 per acre. He thinks is 1200 GLA home is worth $320K then add that to the 300K for the land. He needs to really go back to Chicago Land.

I am seeing more and more price reduced signs on homes that have been on the makret going on six months now.. Builders trying to refi inventory that is setting.

My realtor friend is having more and more open houses. Because he can't get them sold. He has clients who have bought and move into a new house and can't get the old hour or HUD home sold. Got two up the road from me now thats been on the market when the snow was a foot deep. They have had open house after open house all summer long. Price reduce No takers on either one of them.

I think the high gas prices are taking there toll out here in the rural areas. As I post on another post last night, instead of seeing one or two for sale signs on recreational homes along the lakes, I am seeing 10 to 20. Some of the driveways, grass and tress down, appear that no one has been up all summer to tend the property. Were they bought and/or built for spec. No doubt many were.

Yet I just got ream by a LO because I brought in an older farm home at $20K below last years appraisal and was told at the same time that the appraiser that did it last year said the maket was up 10% in the area. I told him I guess he would need to hire that appraiser again.
  #8  
Old 07-29-2005, 07:59 AM
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Otis Key Otis Key is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally posted by Pamela Crowley (Florida)@Jul 28 2005, 03:01 PM
I'm also now seeing a growing number of vacant new houses and am thinking we've run out of the 'demand' of real people that actually want to live here.

1 year, even 6 months ago, if someone wanted a new house they were going to have to wait for it to be built or buy it from a speculator at an inflated price. Now, we have too many new houses ready to move into and the vacancy rate appears to be increasing along with the number of new houses being built. Last year you almost had to get in line and fight off the speculators to get a chance at a proposed construction property. Now, their finished, speculator owned, for sale or for rent, take your pick of dozens available to move into 3 months ago.

Used to be every new house under construction already had a pending contract. Now, nearly finished houses have the builder's sign in front that says "Available!".

Anybody wanna bet the builders will sell their new ready to move into houses ahead of the inflated speculator owned and been for sale for $50-100K more for over 3 months now?
Is someone out there sharpening the pin?
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