1 in 7 Home buyers backed out in July

[Fernando]

View attachment 103602...

I can't even put a new roof for that amount.

 

[djd09]

Condo Prices Dropped by 12%-27% in these 25 Bigger Cities through August: Condo Bust Update​

Condo prices in Killeen, TX, a little over an hour north of Austin, have collapsed by 40% since the peak in mid-2022 and have given up the entire 52% spike from mid-2020 to mid-2022, plus some. The spike had been driven by FOMO-madness and the Fed’s Free Money policies. This is one of the fastest-growing cities around; its population has surged by 35% in the past 15 years to 160,000 in 2024.

But Killeen and other cities like this with condo markets in free-fall don’t qualify for our list here because they’re too small.

Several additional cities made it onto this list because the August price drop brought the total price drop from the peak to 12%, including Phoenix, AZ, and Orlando, FL.

Some of the markets on this list peaked in 2022, others peaked later. Arlington, TX, peaked in June 2024, and condo prices have since then dropped 14%, including another 0.7% in August.

1. Oakland, CA: -27%
2. Cape Coral, FL: -27%
3. Austin, TX: -25%
4. St. Petersburg, FL: -24%
5. Fort Myers, FL: -21%
6. Sarasota, FL: -20%
7. San Francisco, CA: -16%
8. Jacksonville, FL: -16%
9. Denver, CO: -15%
10. Naples, FL: -15%
11. Tampa, FL: -15%
12. Boise, ID: -14%
13. Detroit, MI: -14%
14. Arlington, TX: -14%
15. Seattle: -14%
16. New Orleans, LA: -13%
17. Reno, NV: -13%
18. Portland, OR: -13%
19. Aurora, CO: -13%
20. Mesa, AZ: -12%
21. Scottsdale, AZ: -13%.
22. New York City: -12%
23. Phoenix, AZ: -12%
24. Orlando, FL: -12%
25. Garland, TX: -12%

But from the beginning of 2020 through mid-2022 condo prices had exploded in many of these cities by 50%, 60%, or more than 70%, in just two-and-a-half years, forming fantastic condo bubbles, and now these bubbles are deflating, visualized in the charts below.

What caused those bubbles was the astounding buying behavior of FOMO and investor-mania born out of the Free-Money era. When money is free, prices don’t matter. And mania rules. But money is no longer free.

The price explosion in 2020-2022 came on top of years of price surges, and combined, they blew all fuses: In the 10 years to the peak, prices exploded by 200% (Jacksonville, Tampa), by 260% (Arlington, TX), 300% (Detroit, Aurora, CO), or even 350% (Phoenix, Mesa, AZ).

Condo Prices Dropped by 12%-27% in these 25 Bigger Cities through August: Condo Bust Update | Wolf Street

...

 

[Fernando]

I'm working on this condo appraisal and I was surprised prices haven't increased over past 5 years.
I guess I should be happy that prices are stable for my subject (really, after taking inflation into account?).

 

[Elliott]

I pulled the plug on my refi- today. Just tired of getting smaller and smaller net cash outs and higher and higher aprs. I can only fondly remember $2K refi-s instead of $10K and $15K 'closing costs." I hope the GSE's get their act together. I'm all in for block chain refi's.

 

[djd09]

Home Turnover Rate Hits Lowest Level in 30 Years​

U.S. homeowners are staying put amid growing economic uncertainty and the ongoing affordability crisis, with the country’s housing market reporting the lowest home turnover rate in 30 years, according to a new report by Redfin.

Only 28 out of every 1,000 U.S. homes changed hands between January and September 2025, the real estate brokerage reported, the lowest rate since at least the early-mid 1990s.

The record-breaking data confirms that the U.S. housing market has slowed to a crawl this year due to sky-high home prices, elevated borrowing costs and other rising costs chipping away at buyers’ purchasing power despite growing inventory giving them leverage on sellers.

...ouch

 

[Fernando]

We have a strange economy. In the past when housing not doing well, economy not doing well. But AI is sustaining the economy.
And when inflation occurs, real estate was a good haven for preservation of wealth.
Past several years, housing prices hasn't kept up with inflation and some areas and condos even went down.

 

[Charles West]

Condo Prices Dropped by 12%-27% in these 25 Bigger Cities through August: Condo Bust Update​

Condo prices in Killeen, TX, a little over an hour north of Austin, have collapsed by 40% since the peak in mid-2022 and have given up the entire 52% spike from mid-2020 to mid-2022, plus some. The spike had been driven by FOMO-madness and the Fed’s Free Money policies. This is one of the fastest-growing cities around; its population has surged by 35% in the past 15 years to 160,000 in 2024.

But Killeen and other cities like this with condo markets in free-fall don’t qualify for our list here because they’re too small.

Several additional cities made it onto this list because the August price drop brought the total price drop from the peak to 12%, including Phoenix, AZ, and Orlando, FL.

Some of the markets on this list peaked in 2022, others peaked later. Arlington, TX, peaked in June 2024, and condo prices have since then dropped 14%, including another 0.7% in August.

1. Oakland, CA: -27%
2. Cape Coral, FL: -27%
3. Austin, TX: -25%
4. St. Petersburg, FL: -24%
5. Fort Myers, FL: -21%
6. Sarasota, FL: -20%
7. San Francisco, CA: -16%
8. Jacksonville, FL: -16%
9. Denver, CO: -15%
10. Naples, FL: -15%
11. Tampa, FL: -15%
12. Boise, ID: -14%
13. Detroit, MI: -14%
14. Arlington, TX: -14%
15. Seattle: -14%
16. New Orleans, LA: -13%
17. Reno, NV: -13%
18. Portland, OR: -13%
19. Aurora, CO: -13%
20. Mesa, AZ: -12%
21. Scottsdale, AZ: -13%.
22. New York City: -12%
23. Phoenix, AZ: -12%
24. Orlando, FL: -12%
25. Garland, TX: -12%

But from the beginning of 2020 through mid-2022 condo prices had exploded in many of these cities by 50%, 60%, or more than 70%, in just two-and-a-half years, forming fantastic condo bubbles, and now these bubbles are deflating, visualized in the charts below.

What caused those bubbles was the astounding buying behavior of FOMO and investor-mania born out of the Free-Money era. When money is free, prices don’t matter. And mania rules. But money is no longer free.

The price explosion in 2020-2022 came on top of years of price surges, and combined, they blew all fuses: In the 10 years to the peak, prices exploded by 200% (Jacksonville, Tampa), by 260% (Arlington, TX), 300% (Detroit, Aurora, CO), or even 350% (Phoenix, Mesa, AZ).

Condo Prices Dropped by 12%-27% in these 25 Bigger Cities through August: Condo Bust Update | Wolf Street

...

Condos are the last to go up, and the first to go down.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Why not enjoy the equity from the home?

You mean why not enjoy the equity from the bank's home. You don't own it anymore. You gave it to the bank for a bit of pleasure. Now you have to buy your own house back. With that attitude, there would not be a farm left in America not in the hands of the banksters nor would many homes be owned. The heirs can get out of debt faster and live within their means. For many of us, if choosing between jetting to Japan or Europe is about as exciting as watch paint dry. There are dozens of places in a 100-mile circle of my home that I have never been nor seen and that's more interesting to some of us. So, what would you put the money in? More stocks? More investment property. Kinda defeats the purpose, eh?

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Condo prices

I would as soon live in a lean-to in the woods and eat rabbit guts as to live in a high-rise condo with HOA fees. You are asking to get screwed.