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5 Year Outlook on the Appraisal Profession? Your Opinions Please

Bert Craytor

Senior Member
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Joined
Jun 27, 2017
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
California
His low opinion of fellow appraisers is purely coincidental. Its just that he has contempt for all humans

I'm pretty certain that he will be leading the uprising when he and his peers, the other robots, take over.
It seems the closest peer to everyone nowadays is a robot .... that little ol' smartphone.
1. How smart it is. Do you really know? Can understand much of what you say and translate it into any of a multitude of languages on the spot.
2. Can do advanced calculations in a second.
3. Can allow you to talk to about any place on the planet from any other place, through a myriad of routes, supported by other robots that flash the messages to satellites, under the ocean through optic fiber, or wherever necessary.
4. Can play about any game and beat you, e.g. chess.
5. Can give you advice. All kinds of advice, like where you are and how to get to point Z in the fastest time.

You just can't compete with your smartphone.

Yea, buddy, YOU are already there!!
 

Ken Masla

Thread Starter
Junior Member
Joined
Jul 17, 2006
Professional Status
General Public
State
California
Bert and the other robots will never understand that purchasing a home is not a strictly analytical or financial issue; there's a lot of emotion involved. Until they develop emotions and the understanding thereof, they will continue to fall short in many areas.

This isn't to say that the values they (AVM) produce isn't sufficient for some lending, it surely is. But the problem isn't valuation; its in lending to high risk borrowers. Maybe Burt can produce a program that will accurately predict which potential borrowers will default at some point in the loan term (shouldn't take him more than a few minutes); that's when appraisers will become unnecessary and obsolete.

But until AI can differentiate between desirable or undesirable colors, functional floor plans, etc. and until the AI machine can walk into a house and gag from the pet or smoke odor and understand the negative effect on marketability, appraisers shouldn't worry.
Emotions are just chemicals that are released through your body as a result of calculations made in your brain subconsciously.

It is a result of calculations made in your brain.

Friend has kitchen = I want too.
Brain shoots the chemical to ensure you act on it.

Its not magic.
 

Ken Masla

Thread Starter
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Joined
Jul 17, 2006
Professional Status
General Public
State
California
An old professor at UT at Permian Basin taught me that the "Bias of No Bias is a Bias"...without your heuristic "instinct" "intuition" "sixth sense" whatever...you have nothing to hang your hat on.


But bias isn't always bad. In fact, for certain kinds of questions, the only way to produce better answers is to be biased...Many of the most challenging problems that humans solve are known as inductive problems—problems where the right answer cannot be definitively identified based on the available evidence.
What you are saying is not practical in anyway.

We can sit here and have a philosophical conversation and the end result will be that "nothing really matters."

Everything is everything and everything is nothing.

Pure procrastinating behavior.
 

Mark K

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 27, 2004
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Indiana
Its not magic.
Call it what you will but its that "magic" that will keep humans different from AI, hell, it keeps humans different from all other humans.

Maybe they can give your AI, RPP, Real People Personalities, like Marvin.
 

Bill75

Junior Member
Supporting Member
Joined
Dec 18, 2015
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Texas
I was looking for Youtube song of LAS, and of course its there, but 'recommended' on the right was this, old, but funny,

I had one very similar to this where the owner had about a 8,000 sf hole in their backyard right off the back porch. Basically ideal for snake and raccoon breeding grounds. Well he was a broker and I got a "pleasant" phone call after I turn my report in asking why I pulled comparables with smaller lot sizes. I told him to read my report and that I explained it in great detail using this same exact phrase, diminished site utility. He actually said it was a positive influence as it was a buffer for the neighbors. That's when I asked, why his children's playhouse, toys, and picnic table were in the front yard...
 

ramrcdk

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 15, 2008
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
North Carolina
Thread Subject: I am #108: I have not read all of the (brilliant & funny) posts.
So, as long as, the Lender Chooses 1 of the 4 tiers: as I look deep in MY foggy crystal ball:

But First ON a side Point: the Uber & Lyft are in the same boat as US "independent contractors". (Outcome if you will of the: STRIKE & wanna be employee. IF they get to be "employee" ....we still get nothing because WE have NO representation. )
So,
Health Care Costs compared to Income will be Enormous, so will operating a business in the appraisal field. $14-18 per family member plus business costs = 20k +++ /yearly.
DEPENDING on where you reside in the real estate USA market;
HOWEVER IF : where AMCs are dominant ...only the multi-business large AMCs will be around offering varying 1-stop servicing. (title-value-appraisals, waivers, evals, etc.)
The AMC will decide dates of access, what your Fee will be (with no question to actual complexity), date due with a 24-7 tick-tock clock, 5-7 day delivery. 3 week notice if you plan on being OFF.
Firing without "real" reason or even notification, just not sending orders. The AMC Rep'ing your area will decide upon your income, at least from "that" AMC.
Gosh: sounds like "now"!
Work will come from: THE many eggs in your basket, stress will be heavy, & I will be LONG GONE.

On a Side Note: Open-Door is list-sell priced based upon "inventory- number of days to sell" rather than " A more realistic DOM for Full Achievable Price". It is obvious, around here.
These type of selling services: yet to see the future outcome of their popularity. Hence: Local Agents doing Evaluations: probable.
Professional Measuring Services: adding Evaluation services: probable. Home Inspectors: same.
Diversity of UN-educated "evaluate-ors", yes. But the State will charge for a License. Likely a course or two "on evaluating".
Around Here: $50, $75 more across the board for a Full Service Report: not probable.

**Right now do not see a change in # of requests or fees for "full service orders". I am very busy & I choose to "live in the now" while
Working on my longevity :) ....short-term plan in this business, meaning: my exit plan. To be a Survivor: you must have an exit plan.
Focusing more or as much on "buying-fixing-selling" while rates are low. Hope to have a Finalized Exit Plan by the Election.

The Thread: since the recent passing of the <>$400k, the TEST & pilot program for Evals' with no end date in sight :
sorry but all of my balls look the same: foggy & my rose colored glasses are worn 24-7. Common Sense: better than a master's degree. GET A PLAN
 

Terrel L. Shields

Elite Member
Gold Supporting Member
Joined
May 2, 2002
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Arkansas
it keeps humans different from all other humans.
Exactly. Artificial Intelligence is a misnomer and is merely machine learning. It has no soul and people make financial decisions that are beyond mere economic calculations.


Elon Musk warned the "experts" are dumber than they think. Bill Gates thought AI was as dangerous as nuclear weapons. He also said, "I do believe that when computers take over certain tasks, that will be tough for us. It would be a looong time before you’re matching the type of judgement that humans exercise in many different areas "
 

Ken Masla

Thread Starter
Junior Member
Joined
Jul 17, 2006
Professional Status
General Public
State
California
I had one very similar to this where the owner had about a 8,000 sf hole in their backyard right off the back porch. Basically ideal for snake and raccoon breeding grounds. Well he was a broker and I got a "pleasant" phone call after I turn my report in asking why I pulled comparables with smaller lot sizes. I told him to read my report and that I explained it in great detail using this same exact phrase, diminished site utility. He actually said it was a positive influence as it was a buffer for the neighbors. That's when I asked, why his children's playhouse, toys, and picnic table were in the front yard...
Just curious,

How did you determine that the site had diminished utility?

Or was it deemed?

Or was there a literal hole in the backyard?
 
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