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Closing Restaurants Will It Cascade into Unintended Consequences?

Elliott

Elite Member
Joined
Apr 23, 2002
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Oregon
I thought we were following "the science." If so, restaurants aren't a more than average spreader, schools aren't much of a spreader, and "mask" (except properly worn 95s) aren't very effective in stopping the spread. Lot of politics going on with little to show except spreading fear and trampling on rights. IMO.
 

Michigan CG

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Staff member
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Joined
Nov 1, 2006
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Michigan
Out of business/investment curiosity, could you casually ask them what their reaction would be to an investor interested in a partnership. Nothing specific but I wonder what their reaction might be to someone who came to them, unsolicited and pitched it to them.

As I said earlier, 2,000 restaurants have closed in Michigan permanently and they expect the total to be about 6,000 by spring when this thing could finally be over.

I just read tonight that retail sales for this holiday season might break all records and I was on our main road where all the big boxes are located Saturday night and the traffic was just like every other year (around 7 PM). The retailers might do well but in our state all the restaurants cannot have dine-in seating. These places make the most money RIGHT NOW. January survives on gift cards getting used and February is mostly a horrible month for almost any restaurant in the midwest because the credit cards become due and it is cold and miserable. The fast food places were doing fine but normal restaurants with dine-in had empty parking lots.

I don't like thinking I would be taking advantage of people down on their luck but opportunities exist for people on both sides. Imagine being a 50 year-old guy who has made a good living in the restaurant business and provided well for his family. Currently he is burning all of his savings and given the restrictions in our state could be bankrupt by April.

What does that guy do when the money is gone and he has to go find a normal job? He has restaurant experience and could go be a manager at a restaurant. Well, that would be fine but how many restaurants are in need of managers? At 50 the guy might get an offer for half of what he used to make and at his age his chances of getting hired are slim.

The Applebee's of the world only needs a person with a very good work ethic (willing to work 60 hours a week) and they really only need a Labrador Retriever with a very good work ethic as they have forms and procedures that a Labrador Retriever could learn.

Then I think about the small, downtown retailer who could not sell shoes or shirts or suits while Wal Mart was selling them. The owners might have made $100,000/year and are going to lose everything and we know retail has sucked for multiple years and the job prospects for retail are horrible. Welcome to your $30,000/year job.

I have thought about taking money out of the stock market and going to those who are facing what is happening. I don't think it would be taking advantage of them as the alternative they face is far worse. I think a lot of small businesses would love an investor/partner with $100,000 and would be willing to give up part ownership.

The alternative is worse.
 

Carnivore

Elite Member
Supporting Member
Joined
Jan 15, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
North Carolina
I thought we were following "the science." If so, restaurants aren't a more than average spreader, schools aren't much of a spreader, and "mask" (except properly worn 95s) aren't very effective in stopping the spread. Lot of politics going on with little to show except spreading fear and trampling on rights. IMO.
You left out the Why; Insidious(imo) Operant Conditioning. B.F. Skinner

I can think of a number of Governors around the Country who are doing this.
 

Zoe

Senior Member
Joined
Sep 15, 2020
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Tennessee
This vaccine will help. It is just going to take a while. The scientist are saying it is more effective than most vaccines. Of course the thing is probably mutating. Idk if it will be as effective when it mutates. I would think restaurant people would be one of first in line to get it if they will take it.
 

Zoe

Senior Member
Joined
Sep 15, 2020
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Tennessee
I heard somebody say they took the first shot and it didn't bother them at all but the second shot made them sick for about 24 hours.
 

Carnivore

Elite Member
Supporting Member
Joined
Jan 15, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
North Carolina
This vaccine will help. It is just going to take a while. The scientist are saying it is more effective than most vaccines. Of course the thing is probably mutating. Idk if it will be as effective when it mutates. I would think restaurant people would be one of first in line to get it if they will take it.
Truly remarkable what our Country has done and can do when you unleash the Free Market by pushing aside all the unnecessary Red Tape. Some people don't trust that move of cutting red Tape. That's because they see almost everything as political. Sad Truly Sad!

Here is the way I see Red Tape - We have ninnies out there in the Government that are simply Paper Pushers who have secure jobs in Government. You can hardly fire them for slow performance... Even when it can be proved that they are just shirkers, it still an uphill fight to get rid of them. They take their sweet time over anything...that's red tape they are talking about.

Distribution:

This Virus does not kill the Strong; Youth! So they can wait, many probably have antibodies already. I see it being distributed to just as they say all Front Line Health Care Workers AND Nursing Home Workers, then the Most Vulnerable of all ages; Peeps with existing Comorbidity issues, Everyone over lets say age 60...and on down the line after that.. Then everyone else ....

One of the Vaccines is only about 90% efficacy...that is still a huge number when you compare to Flu Vaccine which is much less, BUT this one does not need special Shipping arrangements aka Sub-zero Storage Temp. Etc I see that one being distributed world wide and very rapidly. Logistics! Again the Feds will remove a lot of Red Tape to achieve better Logistics
 

Mark K

Elite Member
Joined
Jan 27, 2004
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Indiana
Chains like Golden Corral and other buffets are likely done. Even if this is over, there will be enough people scared to eat from a buffet for quite a while. Their business model demands a lot of patrons.

The local Golden Trough was a fairly disgusting place to eat and I hope none ever open their doors again.

OTOH, I agree there will be a lot of restaurants closing but if there was a demand for a restaurant in that location, pre-pandemic, there will be demand for one after and someone will fill the open spot.

As far as unintended consequences....there are ALWAYS unintended consequences. We just can't see them coming yet, sorta like the light at the end of the tunnel; daylight or headlight?
 
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Elliott

Elite Member
Joined
Apr 23, 2002
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Oregon
Covid-19 has an "R" of 2.5, so one person infects 2.5 people and a vaccine will produce herd immunity and we can get back to 'normal' lives and get government out of our hair. When is the last time you changed your life because of Mumps, Polio, SARS, or Ebola?

Herd.jpg
 

glenn walker

Elite Member
Joined
Oct 11, 2006
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
California
31,000 restaurants in LA County now closed to indoor and outdoor dining , these poor guys purchased tables, outside heaters and other things and the County Health Director closes them. When report asks her where is the Science or proof outdoor dining is dangerous, she admits there is none but LA County only has the man power-to inspect 30 to 40 restaurants and bars per day. The truth is there is no science but these power hingry dictators, have tasted power and its now like a dial shot of heroin. her salary is about $200,000 a year so no hit in her. Then after 3 to 4 weeks she says on December 20th she will re-analyze the situation, yeah sure 5 days before Christmas and you know she is in lock down mode again.
 
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