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Coronavirus

Bert Craytor

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At this rate, it looks like well over 200,000 cases by the end of this month. And just think, - the stats are quite possibly being suppressed until after the "National People's Congress" on March 5, which Xi really doesn't want to cancel. After all this, this is the end of another 5-year plan, in which President Xi has been made "President for Life" and during which time he has also managed to throw his rivals in prison on corruption charges. Will he cancel or not? Well, he has more room to make a decision if he can keep the numbers down and show improvement. He is in a corner.

So, until the NPC is canceled or over with, I wouldn't trust the numbers. But, things certainly don't appear to be improving. At this rate, we will still have over 100,000 cases by the end of February. And, China doesn't have enough doctors to take care of the cases they did and do have. In the meantime, doctors and nurses are dying from the virus. If they don't get this under control FAST, the problems will compound each other.
 
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Evincere

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There’s a video that was let out of China and quietly being passed around Chinese censorship via FB - they are literally shooting people suspected of having the virus down in the streets. It’s very graphic - apparently FB also takes them down or shuts a users account
 

Bert Craytor

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1. FYI: According to this https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/fulltext the coronavirus "can persist on inanimate surfaces like metal, glass or plastic for up to 9 days, but can be efficiently inactivated by surface disinfection procedures with 62-71% ethanol, 0.5% hydrogen peroxide or 0.1% sodium hypochlorite within 1 minute. Other biocidal agents such as 0.05-0.2% benzalkonium chloride or 0.02% chlorhexidine digluconate are less effective. As no specific therapies are available for 2019-nCoV, early containment and prevention of further spread will be crucial to stop the ongoing outbreak and to control this novel infectious thread. " Which explains the spraying of streets and floors with bleach in China. Goods coming in on flights from China should be quarantined. But are they?

2. The actual mortality rate is calculated incorrectly in many places as total deaths/total cases. When you take in the time lag between catching the virus and death, that may be several weeks. So, you should have a figure more like "total deaths"/"total cases as of 3 weeks ago". The mortality then could be as high as 20%. And, as I already stated, anecdotal accounts in China are that once you enter a hospital, you have 40% chance of being transferred to ICU. Once in ICU, you have a 50% chance of dying.

3. Today's increase in cases is a nice 3%. - Although, with the scheduling of the NPC on March 5 still up in the air, the numbers may be understated. But at that rate, the total cases by the end of February would be about 104,000, and by the end of March, 261,051. Who really knows at this point.
 

Bert Craytor

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The latest epiphany from today: https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/lew-olowski-coronavirus-worse-than-reported-heres-how-china-is-making-the-situation-worse

If enough pressure builds up in the pressure cooker - the lid pops off. And, you have a mess. Or, let's put it this way, there is only so much medical equipment and so many doctors and nurses. This isn't China - how many of these will even show up for work if the mortality rate is 20+%. The Coronavirus is as bad as the Spanish Flu, if not worse. Yes, nowadays we have advanced technology - but only so much.

I bet many companies and people in the US will start coming out with plans on how to react to a sudden outbreak here in the US.

1. At what point will companies either let or require certain people to work from home.
2. Who can work from home?
3. Who can be laid off temporarily?
4. Which people are absolutely essential for in-office work?

These plans, which often require complex analysis and decision making must be in place before a sudden outbreak.

And, while this isn't China, consider that with a Commander in Chief like Trump (a good thing), Marshal Law is an option, with harsh and dramatic action:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martial_law_in_the_United_States

At least with this option, doctors and nurses could be forced to do their job. But still, there are only so many.
 
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Meandering

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1. FYI: According to this https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/fulltext the coronavirus "can persist on inanimate surfaces like metal, glass or plastic for up to 9 days, but can be efficiently inactivated by surface disinfection procedures with 62-71% ethanol, 0.5% hydrogen peroxide or 0.1% sodium hypochlorite within 1 minute. Other biocidal agents such as 0.05-0.2% benzalkonium chloride or 0.02% chlorhexidine digluconate are less effective. As no specific therapies are available for 2019-nCoV, early containment and prevention of further spread will be crucial to stop the ongoing outbreak and to control this novel infectious thread. " Which explains the spraying of streets and floors with bleach in China. Goods coming in on flights from China should be quarantined. But are they?
and those new t shirts and socks and underwear in plastic bags??

Because this "flu" virus also is an HIV virus...............


.
 

Evincere

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Look at the bright side ...Regarding economics and slow down of Chinese manufactured good shipped to the US ...
Maybe Karma IS a virus.

US drugs bust uncovers enough Chinese fentanyl ‘to kill 14 million people

  • The seizure of 30 kilograms of the opioid sent by a vendor in Shanghai comes in the wake of growing US efforts to stem the flow of drugs from China
  • Fentanyl can be stronger and more lethal than heroin and is responsible for tens of thousands of American drug deaths each year
2B64AB83-8AC3-4342-AF77-7F09CD6B996D.jpeg

Law enforcement officials in the US state of Virginia said on Thursday that they had taken down a multi-state drug ring and seized enough cheap fentanyl from China to kill 14 million people.
 
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Bert Craytor

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As of today, it looks like China has the virus more or less under control, I get 1.98% new cases over yesterday, that is a continuing and substantial reduction in the rate of new cases.

When you remove the recovered/discharged and dead, that leaves what they call "currently infected" at 58,769, of those it is estimated by Chinese that 80% are mild condition and 20% are serious/critical. That seems to turn the tide. And as long as China keeps up its good work, it appears they have the problem under control. But there is plenty of time for the virus to spread to other countries before a vaccine comes out; and, many of those countries are not going to be able to force effective quarantines on their citizens.

We still have to worry about a measles epidemic, along with the current flu epidemic.
 

Terrel L. Shields

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I am not convinced yet that this virus was not man made... I am not saying it is, but the Russians are dam suspicious...and they probably know a lot about such things having caused a disaster in their own country years ago. Of course, the media and government is tamping down the issue to avoid wide spread panic. They can't know however...not until the virus is studied a lot more.

 
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