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Declining Market

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Coach Marc

Thread Starter
Freshman Member
Joined
Dec 31, 2007
Professional Status
Licensed Appraiser
State
California
Where can I find the acceptable narrative regarding a declining market area? This is a condition for a recent appraisal. Thanks in advance for your help.:Eyecrazy:
 

Dutchman

Member
Joined
Jul 11, 2007
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Washington
try doing an analysis and writing one or even maybe get your mentor to help
 

CANative

Elite Member
Joined
Jun 18, 2003
Professional Status
Retired Appraiser
State
California
So you "checked" the neighborhood market trend box as "declining" and now you are not prepared to explain?

Actually, this is probably the most difficult part of the appraisal and appraisal reporting (at least in my area). Now is not a good time for a trainee to be left out in the cold by an out of touch supervisor. You should have been having discussions about this long before completing assignments.

Turn this over to your supervisor. It's his/her job.
 

SMF

Sophomore Member
Joined
Oct 11, 2007
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Virginia
Did you check that the subject is in a declining market, then your supervisor signed off on the report and now it has come back to you from the UW to explain yourself.

Sounds like a serious lack of training and understanding?

Consider a new supervisor.
 

Couch Potato

Elite Member
Joined
Mar 15, 2004
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
North Carolina
Did you hear that?

Where can I find the acceptable narrative regarding a declining market area? This is a condition for a recent appraisal. Thanks in advance for your help.:Eyecrazy:
Not that I don't feel a desire to help, but I did purposefully wait to post in your thread even though I read it almost immediately after you posted it. Most every good Licensed or Certified appraiser I know made an audible groan of pain when reading your post. It is nothing personal, but the individually who supervises your work should be handling the question. That you are asking it here causes all concerned great pain, since a major problem in the appraisal profession is supervisors not doing a good job.

You should feel comfortable discussing this with your supervisor, or you should get a new supervisor ASAP. Now, with that out of the way, have you tried just describing the facts that led to your opinion the market is declining? :new_smile-l:
 

Coach Marc

Thread Starter
Freshman Member
Joined
Dec 31, 2007
Professional Status
Licensed Appraiser
State
California
So you "checked" the neighborhood market trend box as "declining" and now you are not prepared to explain?

Actually, this is probably the most difficult part of the appraisal and appraisal reporting (at least in my area). Now is not a good time for a trainee to be left out in the cold by an out of touch supervisor. You should have been having discussions about this long before completing assignments.

Turn this over to your supervisor. It's his/her job.


Thanks for the reply. but I did not " check " that box it was the current houses for sale in the subject's neighborhood,which was 91 listed and c.o.e sales in the past 12 months,that number was 45..I will check back
with supervisor he is pretty good about helping me about.I was just trying to get another point of veiw and I thought this forum would be helpful..you know how it feels to always have to ask someone an question time after time ...so I heard about this web site and this was my first posting I thougt it was a good question again thanks just for the feed back . :new_newbie:
 

Ray Miller

Elite Member
Joined
Feb 20, 2002
Professional Status
Licensed Appraiser
State
Wisconsin
Thanks for the reply. but I did not " check " that box it was the current houses for sale in the subject's neighborhood,which was 91 listed and c.o.e sales in the past 12 months,that number was 45..I will check back
with supervisor he is pretty good about helping me about.I was just trying to get another point of veiw and I thought this forum would be helpful..you know how it feels to always have to ask someone an question time after time ...It should not be, you should not be feeling this way about your mentor. I have no problem still call on all three of mine even throught one is out of country and two have retired. In my other field of work, I still get calls and emails daily from pups I started and many I never met. I donot have a problem help them. If they have forgotten some thing I will always go back over it with them. I heard about this web site and this was my first posting I thougt it was a good question again thanks just for the feed back . :new_newbie:

I would think you being a Certified Res. that question would have been covered a long time ago. Couch Potato and the others have given you some good insight and advise. Don't run off, you are quite welcome to post additional questions. If you have thin skin choose your words and question. Stick around this site will learn you a lot.

Just my thinking.
 

CANative

Elite Member
Joined
Jun 18, 2003
Professional Status
Retired Appraiser
State
California
Ray... The "Coach" is not a cert res.

Mr. Marc: It wasn't a bad question. Just a complicated question and one that is location specific for the most part.

I tend to write my narrative market comments in newspaper fashion (pyramid style) where the first part is general in nature and gives the reader the big picture up front. I then discuss details of the local market and then the neighborhood or the area from which comparable properties are drawn. Later on in the discussion I will provide some statistics or numbers including days on market, changes in marketing times, sales numbers, median pricing, number of listings versus number of sales by year and by month.

This process takes me longer than gridding and adjusting comps, describing the subject and comps and filling out the rest of the form.

Here's a cut and paste from a sort of cookie cutterish one I did last week. Maybe you could use parts of it.

Market conditions:
The current mortgage lending market remains very volatile six months after a global repricing of credit risk in July 2007. Many lending programs and products that were readily available less than a year ago are no longer available and there has been a significant decline of investors in the secondary market. The result is higher higher borrower qualification, less liquidity and other conditions resulting in fewer loans being made. Fewer loans available reduces the amount of purchase-ready buyers and increases the amount of competition among the sellers for those fewer buyers. When sellers are competing for buyers, they do so by lowering prices. Media saturation campaigns detailing the current problems in the mortgage lending industry and it's effect on real estate markets, in particular the spector of upcoming foreclosures resulting from resetting adjustable rate mortgages in combination with declining residential property values appears to be exacerbating the problem. This dynamic has become apparent in trend analysis and its influence, based on my research and conversations with market participants, is present in the market and is likely to increase. Therefore, the reasonable conclusion I draw is that this market is best described as volatile and unsteady and is in decline at this time.

The subject is located within the city limits of the City of Ukiah. Although this is the largest city in Mendocino County and is a small urban market, the population is only about 15,000 and there are very few sales in any given year and there is very little conformity between residential properties and locations within the city. Slow market conditions over the last six months reduces the number of closed sales even more and this makes statistical trend analysis very difficult (limited sampling). Per BAREIS MLS statistics for the overall Mendocino County market the median sales price is the same for 2006 as it is for 2007 year to date ($400,000 for both periods). This is not an accurate assessment because it includes sales from the early part of the 2007 marketing period and signficant changes in market conditions did not start occuring until the summer of 2007. Exposure time average is currently about 162 days and has increased from about 132 days in mid-2007 and less than 90 days in late 2006 and early 2007. Unsold inventory has increased and number of sales each month has decreased. At this time there have been about 11 sales per month in the Ukiah market and there are currently 118 active listings. There are 18 current pending sales. Average days on market for active listings at this time is about 143 days, pending sales at about 163 days. Most effected by price decreases and excessive inventory are modest homes in lower priced neighborhoods. These types of properties experienced a significant run up in pricing over the last 2 to 3 years due mainly to speculative buying and purchases be underqualified buyers taking advantage of easy loan qualifications, low interest rates and adjustable rate mortgage loans offering "teaser" rates.
 

Lee in L.A.

Elite Member
Joined
Jan 24, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
California
It wasn't a bad question. Just a complicated question and one that is location specific for the most part.

I tend to write my narrative market comments in newspaper fashion (pyramid style) where the first part is general in nature and gives the reader the big picture up front. I then discuss details of the local market and then the neighborhood or the area from which comparable properties are drawn. Later on in the discussion I will provide some statistics or numbers including days on market, changes in marketing times, sales numbers, median pricing, number of listings versus number of sales by year and by month.

This process takes me longer than gridding and adjusting comps, describing the subject and comps and filling out the rest of the form.

The market analysis is the hardest part a lot of times, these days. :clapping:

A chart and/or graph of the stats can be helpful for understanding your analysis too. Some MLS boards and other sources allow you to download the search results in a format like *.csv or *.txt, that can be opened in a spreadsheet program for analysis. I've seen and used some pretty spiffy ones. :icon_idea:
 

CANative

Elite Member
Joined
Jun 18, 2003
Professional Status
Retired Appraiser
State
California
Lee,

If you ever run in to Norm at Norm's Rare Guitars tell him I'm still ****ed at him for buying my 1967 Everly Brothers Gibson for $500. Yeah, I needed groceries for the kids but he could coughed up a little more.
 
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