I have noticed the trend in upper range homes in DFW. Homes under $100,000 are still selling like gang busters. However, just look at the listings versus sales in Southlake (Tarrant counties highest city). It is incredible how consumers still think that home values are increasing at 10% a year or more. If you appraise a home in Southlake you are lucky to appraise the home for what they paid for it last year. Of course, I am just a closed minded appraiser who lets factual data inhibit my appraisal skills.
The housing market has never looked better," said David Lereah, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. "We don't have the excesses in the market nationwide that would cause home price appreciation to turn negative."
Always the optimist, eh? If the market was tanking I would bet the NAR would say everything was A-OK.
I recall in 1980-82, when a local Realtor was going great guns and interest rates were skyhigh. He was pumping up everyone. Even built 4 nearly identical buildings in 4 small area towns complete with a built in safe in each one and room for 6 + agents. Building houses like mad. In 18 mo. he went to the contractors and said, Take 1/3rd what I owe you, or I file bankrupcy. Gave the offices (total 6) to a backer for debts. That guy promptly sold off 4 buildings and kept 2 changing the name of the company and reducing staff to about 5 total. After a year closed one more and was down to 2 full time salesmen and a part time sales / Secty. Finally closed it and it is now a law office. About the time this company hit bottom, the market finally begin to recover. Last year one of the ex-agents went on her own and revived the name of the company. I accused her of being too cheap to buy new signs & still having some old signs (I can tease her, as we had dated back in the stone age before most of this happened)
There is a bubble. I feel confident the future banking crisis will lag the economic crisis. Too many banks grew too rapidly and spent too much money goobling each other up. It is a house of cards.