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Do Pre-Foreclosures equal total Active listings by you?

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DeanHarris

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I poked around the MLS for 3hrs to look for a bright spot in regards to sales. Any trend in what was selling. I found none. Bank Owned selling at just under 10% based on Nov sales was about it. That is the strongest market segment.

So, I started to look at where I'm from..Nassau County NY and some other New England states.

Some New England cities looked pretty good.

Then...

...I checked realtytrac which I haven't checked in a month or so. :new_all_coholic:

Um...a quick glance showed that PRE-FORECLOSURES in various ZIP codes came close to or exceeding the total Active listings in the MLS.

Ouch. The percentage that end up Bank Owned is probably higher than many state IMO. Guess we'll know by Spring.

ZIP / Active MLS / Pre-Foreclosure

34786 761 647
Windermere

34761 494 702
Ocoee

32835 863 876
Orlando (Metrowest)

32819 508 728 (<-- wow!)
Dr Phillips

32824 711 692
East Orlando

32828 875 830
East Orlando

32808 502 837 (<--OUCH)
Orlando

32806 368 585
Orlando

and so on...

I thought "Wow, FL really will be in the dumpster for some time."

When I checked some ZIP's in MA and NY compared to their board stats online it was the same story in many cases. Nearly the same number of pre-foreclosures as listed active back when the stats were pulled.

The mess is a good bit deeper and wider than many realize, methinks.

Right now Distressed properties (Bank Owned, Pre-foreclosures and Foreclosures) account for just 10% of all MLS listings. By Summer 2008 they will probably be 30%+.

Opinions?

BTW, Realtytrac seems off when you do City or County reports.

Meaning, if I punch in "Orlando" is shows 4855 Pre-foreclosures.

This seems very low based on the above info. If one punched in every zip code then added them up, it seems like it would be WELL over 4,855.

There's something up with how Realtytrac adds up cities and counties.

Friend of mine lives in Dorchester, MA 02125. Dorchester 02125 usually comes up as Boston with UPS, etc...

Punch in Dorchester and MA from pull down. They show just 38 Pre-foreclosures.

Punch in the ZIP 02125 (Dorchester has more than 1 ZIP) and out pops 672 Pre-foreclosures.

Type in "Boston" and select MA from pull down and just 525 Pre-foreclosures pop up.

Not possible. "Boston" pulls up 02125 within it's search results. 02125 is a part of Boston.

I wonder how many reporters are just clicking on Map results or punching in the city name to pull their data? Ooops.
 

Tom Woolford

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Just remember that "pre-forclosure" includes loans 30 days past due. The majority of them will be saved. I'd be more concerned with over 90's
 

DeanHarris

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True. It's still plain wacky to have all those folks past 30 days.

At what point do you folks consider a bank owned sale as an equal comparable to a regular sale?

If bank owned sales are the only sales in the last 3 months in a subdivision would you use them as full comps?
 

murray stroupe

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Tennessee
Re; Realty sold trends-Asking pricres below average

True. It's still plain wacky to have all those folks past 30 days.

If bank owned sales are the only sales in the last 3 months in a subdivision would you use them as full comps?
===========
Yes,
3 0f 6 or 7 comps;
but i am not an appraiser, nor do i play one on flipper TV.

Looking thru 50 pages of Re ads, see what you mean Dean;
not near as many ''sold signs'' as one would usually see.

Do see about 7-8 ''sold'' signs -50pages of ads. Wisdom is profitable.

1]Its stale,old sale, but still glad he advertised old ''sold'' -tells me something.

2]Mobile home on 1 acre,2 car garage listed @$40,ooo[all these sold]

3]Brick home, shady lot, epoxy floors, asking $95,000

4]Tri level,3BR,2 bath,paint[noticed that paint,LOL]asking $79,000

5]New home warrenty,newly remodled[meaning not brand new???].1.3 AC;
no price listed, but 3 BR, 2 bath,sold in $100,000-150,000 section.

More new listings, more ''reduced '' signs;MLS areas between Nashville & Memphis,TN
 
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jakeboeger

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May 12, 2005
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California
Contra Costa County is probably the hardest hit county in the Bay Area.

In some markets I am seeing 80-100% of inventory being made up of REO & short sales. On average, probably about 50%.

A lot of markets in the Bay Area are REO & short sale driven
 

DeanHarris

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Florida
New Home for 100-150? Wonder where we are headed to?

80-100% in some areas REO and short sales? OUCH.

I was a bit suprised to look at areas in the NE on ZIP code basis to see a rediculous amount of pre-foreclosures.

The rollout of the foreclosures seems to have just started, sadly.
 

Tom Woolford

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Florida
When actual forclosures are the majority of the sales (probably comming soon), then they ARE the market. and the rest will have to be priced to compete. Not all forclosures are trashed. I'd say only 10% of the ones I do. Last week there was a super nice 3/2/2 on the hot sheet about 1800 s.f. that was listed at $78k by the bank. Sold within 12 hours with six higher offer backups. I called the broker wanting to put in an offer and she told me not to bother. This is our future.
 

murray stroupe

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Re

When actual forclosures are the majority of the sales (probably comming soon), then they ARE the market. and the rest will have to be priced to compete. Not all forclosures are trashed. I'd say only 10% of the ones I do. Last week there was a super nice 3/2/2 on the hot sheet about 1800 s.f. that was listed at $78k by the bank. Sold within 12 hours with six higher offer backups. I called the broker wanting to put in an offer and she told me not to bother. This is our future.
===================
Multiple offers seldom happened on the way up here;
but 6 almost 7 back up offers around 78,ooo list. And sold within 12 hours present another ''super nice'' perspective.
 

DeanHarris

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Florida
I think there will be a fair amount of withdrawn and expired listings by regular folks soon.

Most of the bank owned, pre-foreclosures and foreclosures I've seen are totally acceptable- for now. One issue for the southern states especially is that the vast majority do not have power. In the not distant future many will have apparent mold/mildew issues.

There will be just too many properties to even consider a house that smells moldy.

The number of pre-foreclosures is alarming in many areas. In one of the ZIP's I looked at...700+ in pre-foreclosure. Wondered how many were represented in the MLS. Just 14 listed as pre-foreclosure. In the last 3 mos- only 22 sales per month. This is a nice desirable area with no new builders. 500+ active listings.

When more bank owned pop up for 25%+ less than regular folks...they will just withdraw for a long while unless they REALLY *have* to sell.

The folks on CNBC are telling everyone they see no silver lining and there's no doubt prices will go down.

Suze Ormon is telling people "we are already at 2004 prices in some areas so offer 2002 prices".

About 1/3rd total inventory here are homes 2003 and newer.

Ouch.

I will just "think positive" and it will all work out fine. LOL.
 
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