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Dollar Shift: Chinese Pockets Filled as Americans’ Emptied

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Randolph Kinney

Elite Member
Joined
Apr 7, 2005
Professional Status
Retired Appraiser
State
North Carolina
The problem has always been a game of honest trade. Once any country runs significant trade surpluses with its trading partners, it has no choice but to buy the debt of those countries to recycle surplus foreign currency accumulated by the trade surpluses.

It is not that China saves too much. It is a problem of the US spending too much for its means. The means for the US standard of living has left its shores to foreign shores where regulation, taxation and even labor has the advantage over the US.

The US promotes the idea of "free" trade and allows the infamous export model to power a foreign economy with jobs servicing those exports. There is no counterbalance on the import side of the equation where jobs are created to offset the gain produced in the exporting country. It has always been assumed that the trade imbalance would correct itself through a natural realignment in the foreign exchange rate of the US dollar. But that is not how the export model works in reality. The article points that out; China fixes its exchange rate to the dollar and adopts policies to maintain that rate artificially.

The problem of accumulation of foreign currency from an export imbalance is viewed as a problem of the country not spending enough to offset the accumulation. By definition, excess money not spent is called savings. Any borrowed money to finance a trade deficit is called excess spending.

Since the trading game of the world is crooked, the natural flow of currency and its value is crooked. The only real way to apply pressure to right the imbalance is to take jobs away from the exporting country that has excess accumulation of foreign currencies. That happens when the trading partner has a collapse in consumer spending as the US has now brought on by the inability of the consumer to service debt and maintain spending.

The Keynesian theory is clear about aggregate demand; if the consumer can't or won't spend, the government will. And that is the plan by the US. The US is going to create jobs at the expense of China or other trading partners who run a trade surplus with the US. It will be reflected in the exchange rate of the dollar; the dollar must fall in value making it very expensive for the US consumer to buy imports. It is going to make servicing the US debt very cheap with printed dollars.

Other changes will results from policy changes; not all them good.
 
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