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Exos ? AI From V Of Appraisal

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bnmappraisal

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EXOS! I thought it was funny about his analogy with "naming" an AI program. I understand why all these companies have to do it (Siri, Alexa, Kortana, etc) since you can't just say "Computer, do this" like he says about Star Trek. (around the 3 minute mark) Doesn't CoreLogic have an app like this too?

And my other favorite part, around the 18:00 mark with the "Boiler Room" Ben Affleck quote "We don't train old brokers, we train new ones!" That made me think of the START program that AXIS was/is pushing regarding bringing on new trainees/supervisors.
 

timd354

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Crawford states that he does not object to these alternative products and then goes on a long rant about how these alternative products are going to allow AMCs & Lenders to bring in thousands of millenials who are going to be willing for less money than existing appraisers. If the only argument Phil and others can come up with against these products is that these products will new people to enter the profession who are willing to work for less, that is not a winning argument since nobody but appraisers cares if it causes new people to become appraisers who are willing to work for less money.
 

djd09

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"Juicy Joan". What a nickname.
 

Eli

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I’ll say not everything was whiteboarded. Take for example the inspection vs analytical. There have been appraisers on here that will not do inspections only. So, will they train brokers to do the inspections? He is probably pretty right on the analytical side and how some of it will work. He didn’t touch too much on the inspection side though. He is probably right about young high tech people running the analytical side.

Now, state governments and their individual licensing laws are another factor that he didn’t touch on much. And, I am working on some complex assignments right now that there is no way a young analytical person could be very credible or reliable on. The assignments are too complex. So, he’s probably spot on that there will be much more legal work for appraisers. Just a few of my off the cuff thoughts that may or may not be right because my thoughts were fast and cheap.
 

Terrel L. Shields

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nobody but appraisers cares if it causes new people to become appraisers who are willing to work for less money.
AMC's ...more money & bigger cut for them. What few compact, limited markets will support 8-16 "appraisals" per day? Three-quarters of your day will be spent twiddling your thumbs.
 

DTB

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I’ll say not everything was whiteboarded. Take for example the inspection vs analytical. There have been appraisers on here that will not do inspections only. So, will they train brokers to do the inspections? He is probably pretty right on the analytical side and how some of it will work. He didn’t touch too much on the inspection side though.

The learning curve to complete appraisal "inspections" would be quite flat IMO. 2 weeks of what to look at and know what it is and they're off!
 

Eli

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The learning curve to complete appraisal "inspections" would be quite flat IMO. 2 weeks of what to look at and know what it is and they're off!

I don’t know. Legal issues could come into play before it’s over. They usually do. Like what is an appraisal as defined by state law? And who can do it?
 

J Grant

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Crawford states that he does not object to these alternative products and then goes on a long rant about how these alternative products are going to allow AMCs & Lenders to bring in thousands of millenials who are going to be willing for less money than existing appraisers. If the only argument Phil and others can come up with against these products is that these products will new people to enter the profession who are willing to work for less, that is not a winning argument since nobody but appraisers cares if it causes new people to become appraisers who are willing to work for less money.

Nobody but appraisers cares if people are willing to work for less money, but a whole lot of people will care later if the replacement products lead to faulty evaluations...

Why take a system that is working well with a low default rate and smash it? Greed. Lenders perhaps believe cheaper faster evaluations or appraisals will help them do more business but it won't. As soon as they all reduce turn around time or fee to borrower , it will just level the playing field among them. . The problem these companies face is none of them have anything special to offer a consumer unless any of they can offer a unique/proprietary loan product. They issue similar loans at similar rates. and consumers realize that.

There are only so many consumers buying houses or borrowing out there, with online lenders competing for business that used to be locally based,-- too many lenders chasing a limited pool of borrowers, The only tactic left for them to drum up more loan volume is to offer riskier exotic and low $ down loan products, which we are already seeing a return to.
 
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The Warrior Monk

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Crawford states that he does not object to these alternative products and then goes on a long rant about how these alternative products are going to allow AMCs & Lenders to bring in thousands of millenials who are going to be willing for less money than existing appraisers. If the only argument Phil and others can come up with against these products is that these products will new people to enter the profession who are willing to work for less, that is not a winning argument since nobody but appraisers cares if it causes new people to become appraisers who are willing to work for less money.

I'm not so sure thousands of people are coming in for various reasons. First and foremost is fee. In Dustin Harris' interview, the $75 fee per assignment is being thrown around. The reality of the situation, at least as I've experienced, is that $50-$60 per assignment is the going rate right now, and that is with AMCs complaining about appraiser shortage. And that is also without consideration of the reality of stips/corrections/modifications...we're dealing with AMCs, so that is an absolute given (and is already occurring). 15 minutes wasted on a valuation that takes 30 minutes is a loss of 50% of the fee (based on not be able to do another desktop during that time).

Thousands of appraisers flooding the profession means vastly increased competition. Great from the AMC perspective, as that means more profit. Very, very bad from the appraiser's perspective, because the average fee paid will drop like a stone.

Lastly, who will train these thousands of people? At that fee level, what is my incentive to train someone? What should I, as a supervisor, be compensated $25 for to review a desktop, which initially may take as long as the appraisal itself to perform, and accept all the liability to go along with it?

Of course, they will get done. But I'm willing to place a bet that the group of people that are slamming these things out will be the first group of people out the door after the next crash. I base that opinion on the ill-trained, fast-and-furious experience of the appraisers of the last crash.

I have no issue with these valuation products, BTW. But the fees being paid and the snake-oil salesman approach being taken to them is a great turnoff of many of us.
 
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