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'for Sale' Signs Everywhere!

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Dee Dee

Elite Member
Joined
Jan 16, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Colorado
Guess it must be the first signs of spring in here in the high country, because when the weather starts getting nice everyone up here knows that it's time to put out the for sale signs, because that's when the buyers are most likely to wander up here to take a look. April, May and June are usually chaotic sales months compared to the rest of the year.

In just the past week I'm stunned at the number of new signs that are blooming in people's front yards....seems like nearly double what I saw out there just a month ago.

Local Realtor says that some agents have decided not to take on any more new listings because it's already costing them dearly to advertise the ones they already have, and they're not getting many nibbles from buyers. All expenses, no income.

I knew it was going to be a tough spring, but we're already off to the worst start I've ever seen up here.
About 20% of the signs are FSBO's, and quite a few of the selling agents have put 'price reduced' stickers across the signs that they've had in place for more than a few weeks.

Just three years ago the agents were going door-to-door soliciting potential sellers with lists of buyers in their hands that they couldn't accomodate.
So much for the '7-year-cycle' theories. :rolleyes:
 

Liz South

Junior Member
Joined
Jan 15, 2002
Professional Status
Licensed Appraiser
State
Virginia
Here on the east coast - the signs go up, and the properties are still going under contract within 3-5 days. I'm looking some, but darn don't get a chance to get out to look at the house and then its under contract. I've never seen our market this hot. This market is now insane.
Talked to an economist from Fannie yesterday - they say it could continue here for another year or so -
Guess I don't need ANY LIFE :rolleyes:

Weatherman just said that in a normal year we get about 42" of rain here and that in the last 6 months we have had 31+". Wondering whether I need to stop appraising and build an ark.

Liz S.
 

Charlotte Dixon

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 16, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Delaware
Originally posted by liz S.@May 22 2003, 05:13 AM
Here on the east coast - the signs go up, and the properties are still going under contract within 3-5 days.
Liz, here too! Hot market, happy Realtors, tired appraisers. :blink:
 
Joined
Jan 13, 2002
Professional Status
Retired Appraiser
State
Florida
Mixed here. Certain pockets are hot, certain pockets are sitting still, some look like they might be declining. Too busy to try to figure them all out except as I do an appraisal in each area. This is crazy!
 

Austin

Elite Member
Joined
Jan 16, 2002
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Virginia
Liz:
I see you live in Richmond, VA. I live in southside Virginia. The reason your market is so hot is because people are moving out of this area because of economic problems resulting from the world economy and government social policy. Textile industry wiped out, tobacco industry wiped out, aircraft and tire manufacturing business in recession because of 9/11. Our county and the two adjoining counties to the east and west have the highest unemployment rates since the depression. What you seeing as an economic boom is nothing more than a migration that is a zero sum game. Your prices go up, our's goes down. You get richer, we get poorer. You can't grow an economy by playing musical chairs.
 

Dee Dee

Elite Member
Joined
Jan 16, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Colorado
Austin,

I've thrown out my old-fashioned notions about sustained economic balance in any demographic area that will prosper for any prolonged length of time.
We have become an increasingly mobile society, so depending on what business sector is hot and paying well at any given time, the population shifts accordingly to wherever that sector is setting up camp, with service and labor industries following closely on their heels.
Those who adapt to mobility and follow the money will probably see continuous prosperity, whereas those of us who stay put in one area are destined to see the cycles come and go.
 

Restrain

Elite Member
Joined
Jan 22, 2002
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Florida
Prices are down, listings up, and days on market higher. The ones that are hurting are the homes bought new in the last 3 years, often upside down on what they need to get out. Even the inner city high-priced properties that once sold under 30 days are taking over 6 months with reduced prices. It'll take a couple of more years to work out as layoffs continue.

Roger
 

Mike Garrett RAA

Elite Member
Gold Supporting Member
Joined
Jan 14, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Colorado
Still busy here. The existing home market slowed over the winter months but now we are coming into the prime marketing season. Just did one where the days on market was 4. The over all days on market for that neighborhood based on MLS CMA data was 56. Not exactly a slow market.

Dee Dee...do you think all those properties going on the market could be the result of the Hayman Wildfire? We are seeing alot of that in Teller County.
 

Judy Whitehead (Florida)

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 20, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Florida
Our market is very hot and prices escalating rapidly. We have a new large planned development with golf course/shops/SFR's under construction just south of town and two more large ones in the permitting stage. I'm have to take a real hard look at my appraisals to be sure I'm seeing the sales I'm seeing. Lots of FSBO's - unfortunately in a hot market no one needs a real estate broker. We had a rather slow month last month but have been slammed this month. I still hate the refi's though, as most people are aware of the increase in prices, but of course the guy with the 1500 SF house doesn't recognize the difference between his and the one down the street with 2100 SF and a swimming pool.
 

Austin

Elite Member
Joined
Jan 16, 2002
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Virginia
Dee Dee:
Let me tell you a story about my old-fashioned notions. In about 1965, I was in college taking Econ 101 majoring in economics. The professor gave us an illustration of deficit spending. He took a quarter out of his right hand pocket and then put it into his left hand pocket. He said that illustrated federal deficit spending. It was like borrowing from your own account so how could we lose? It helped regulate the money supply and resulted in economic expansion according to him. I couldn’t see it that way. I responded that his illustration was flawed because in actuality the two pockets were on two different pairs of paints. (I think I read the other day that 45% of our treasure notes and 10% of stocks are foreign owned as an aside. The US government is devaluing the dollar to stem the tide.) The way I saw it was that the people without money were mortgaging their future or selling their soul to the people with the money that purchased the bonds. My professor said I had to give up my old fashion notions, which is your expression that joggled my memory.
I discussed the situation with my father and he gave me a good illustration of the problem. He told me the story of the Native American Indians and how they would kill a wolf. They would take a double edge knife and make it razor sharp. Then they would coat the blade in salt and burry the knife in the ground with the blade sticking up. The old wolf would smell the salt and start licking the blade. Every time the wolf took a lick it would cut his tongue and it would start to bleed. The more it bled the better it tasted to the wolf and the faster he would lick. Finally the old wolf would drink his entire volume of blood and drop dead.
That is my old fashion notion of where our economy is headed. It will take a while for it to happen but sooner or later the blood supply will run dry. These people moving around are just going to where there is a better blood supply thus speeding up the demise of the big bad wolf.
 
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