Forecast for appraisal business in 2002??????

[Bob Ipock]

How are we gonna do this year? I fully expect this year to be down 20-25% in appraisal income. However, January 2002 was up 57% for me over January 2001.

Any predictions or words of wisdom? I have one last semester of college to pay for....then a one year break and off goes my youngest child for his
4 years ( I hope it will be only 4).

One month does not make a year....but how was January for the rest of you folks?


Bob Ipock

 

[Ron in AR]

Bob,

It was a slow start for the first week of 2002 here. I was 2 days away from catching up but never got the chance. Haven't been caught up in 10 years. 2nd week it all started coming in at a very comfortable pace. Looks like 2002 is gonna be good.

Ron in AR

 

[Fred]

At the Appraisal Foundation's meeting of the Industry Advisory Council last week, the ASB reported the new applications are down.

 

[Paul Ness MAI]

IMHO, overall the year will be off from last year. I think rates are going to increase slightly so refinancing will slow after a short flurry of those few hold-outs waiting on the sidelines to see the up-tick before jumping in at the last minute, but I think sales will be commensurate with last year. On the commercial side, I think refinancing will continue through the first quarter and there may be continued loans for business expansion unless rates swing too high too fast. Of course, the big wild card is another possible terrorist attack. If that happens I think such a second blow will knock the wind out of the sails of public confidence.

 

[Anonymous]

I'll get back with you tomorrow about why the things I predicted yesterday didn't happen today.

 

[Paul Ness MAI]

NYUCK NYUCK NYUCK

 

[Stephen J. Vertin MAI]

Bob:

The verdict is in and 2001 was my second best year since being in business for over 11 years now (1998 was my best year). I am with Paul, I think rates will go up this year. Most likely in or around October. I think business will be average to good in 2002.

January has always been slow for me. I look forward to it now. When I started my business it use to panic me. My busiest months tend to be February/March and September/October. I took this week off. I am seriously contemplating opening a "Amertrade" account. I think the stock market will do well this year. Even though I was a finance major in college I never got into playing the market. I was always to busy with appraisal work or operating one of my apartment buildings. This year I have a little extra cash to play around with. Who knows, the next time you guys hear from me may be from my yacht in the Caribbean. I may be lucky enough to live the life of Tom Hildebrandt. Good luck to all this year.

Steve Vertin

 

[Ruth Langkawel]

Business will begin to become more rational. Volume will slow somewhat, but we will be able to increase fees (or our competitors will be increasing their lowball fees, for those of us who have suffered due to insisting on a respectable fee), and many johnny-come-lately AMCs will be blown out of the water because no one will pay for their referral service on top of a fair appraisal fee, and the jack-be-quick & cheap appraisers that feed these sharks will get serious about their profession, or be blackballed by Fannie Mae.

See post titled "Fannie Mae Announcement". It'll brighten your day.
8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8)
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

 

[Tom Hildebrandt]

Steve and others

Glad to hear you have a little cash to play around with this year! For those who think I am financially independent, I wish to point out that appraising did not get me to the point to where I can afford to go sailing at the age of 55.

The only way I can afford to go cruising is because I spent 21 years flying helicopters for the US Navy. Without Uncle Sam's check, I would not be able to afford to retire.

Oh yes, I would be remiss if I did not mention the real reason I can afford to do this, my wife of 30 plus years.

Regards

Tom Hildebrandt GAA

 

[Judy Whitehead (Florida)]

I have had the busiest month ever since I opened my own office 3 1/2 years ago. I have not had time to do any of my end of the year stuff, or learn how to use my new WinTotal program. It has seemed to slow a little bit this last week. We got in double the usual orders during January. Whew!

I'm like everyone else, though, I complain when I'm too busy then get worried when it slows down! I think this year will be pretty steady for us. It may not be quite as busy as last year, but we have lots of new development going on and unless something really bad happens, I think we will be OK.