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Has The Refi Boom Finally Slowed ?

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Elliott

Elite Member
Joined
Apr 23, 2002
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Oregon
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I'm noticing less requests, able to catch up, not quoting 3-week turns. Normal might return to the business. I think i'll go skiing on some of Oregon's 4 feet of powder.
 

Randolph Kinney

Elite Member
Joined
Apr 7, 2005
Professional Status
Retired Appraiser
State
North Carolina
Yes, going forward, those who have already refinanced at less than 4% are done. Those buyers who bought in 2016 and financed are done.

The only financing left will be home equity loans and second mortgages going forward. And that will dry up since rising interest rates evenly leads to falling prices.
 

JTip

Elite Member
Joined
Oct 12, 2004
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Pennsylvania
I think i'll go skiing on some of Oregon's 4 feet of powder.

That's what I'm betting on. A nice 1-2 reports a week (PT), giving me lots of time to go skiing, albeit more like 4" (on top of crusty man made stuff). Local mountain had a 'black friday' deal this year, $299 season pass (any day) vs regular, early bird of $380 vs regular $650. If you can ski our icy, crusty stuff, you can ski anything. 4' is what dreams are made of......
 

J Grant

Elite Member
Joined
Dec 9, 2003
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Florida
I expect refinance to slow considerably if rates go up over 1/2 a point, though there are always stragglers around or cash out people. I don't expect the sales market to be affected much if at all. Rates are still very good, if they go over 5% they are still good but expect prices to cool .
 

Jim Bartley

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 20, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Virginia
In total, mortgage originations will decrease to $1.58 trillion in 2017 from $1.89 trillion in 2016. For 2018, MBA is forecasting purchase originations of $1.18 trillion and refinance originations of $410 billion for a total of $1.59 trillion.
 

Doug in NC

Elite Member
Joined
Jan 17, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
North Carolina
Yes, the boom is over. You can always tell because orders slow substantially and the only appraisal opportunities available are orders like 2 houses built in the 1800s, on the same lot containing 53 acres, and the properties are rented out so it's an income property to boot. (Declined this order today, no kidding.)
 

Non Sequitur

Elite Member
Supporting Member
Joined
Feb 14, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Louisiana
Yes, the boom is over. You can always tell because orders slow substantially and the only appraisal opportunities available are orders like 2 houses built in the 1800s, on the same lot containing 53 acres, and the properties are rented out so it's an income property to boot. (Declined this order today, no kidding.)
And appraisers accepting those orders for $250. That describes the orders coming across my desk since the end of October.
 

Mike Garrett RAA

Elite Member
Gold Supporting Member
Joined
Jan 14, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Colorado
There will always be someone refinancing for a variety of reasons. I do agree we will see some slowing mostly due to the fact millions have already taken advantage of the historic low rates. Looks like the Fed will be raising rates .025% today. I think most of the slowing being seen nationally could be seasonal.
 
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