Honey Bees and Market Valuation

[Caterina Platt]

Theories/Facts, yeah, yeah. Scientifically speaking it is only a theory that the earth revolves around the sun too. "Theory" in science means a lot more than it means in the general public. Nothing disturbs me more to hear the mantra that "Evolution is just a theory".

My point about Einstein's comment, whether tongue in cheek or not, is a kiddng on the level way of pointing out that using his words is a an appeal to authority when of course he was a physicist not a zoologist or ecologist. You could quote Peter Jennings, or your significant other, on the subject with as much authority. But since Einstein has obtained "Uber-genius" (couldn't help using the Uber word), i.e., superhero status, quoting him is supposed to serve as a form of proof. My comment points out his humanity, and shows us a quote most appraisers would disagree with. It is a tactic that promotes critical thinking.

Personally, the bee thing concerns me like it does most of us. I am interested in hearing if anyone has measured its effect on the market, which is why I keep coming back to the thread. but if other markets are like mine I'd have to think it is a difficult thing to measure.

The earth revolving around the sun was theory until our space program put us out there and it was proven. Now it would be considered fact. Evolution, on the other hand, has no solid proof. Fossil records of transitional phases appear to be like hen's teeth. I'll leave it there, as this is starting to get dangerously close to a Lounge discussion, which is an extinct beast. :new_smile-l:

I agree on the fact that Einstein is often used to give credibility to statements, perhaps where it is not warranted.

Back to the bee thing. One would have to support a loss in income due to decreased crop production, then draw the conclusion that it is the dwindling bee population. The loss in income would then have to result lower ag land pricing. With all the other market factors that typically affect land prices in most market areas, it would be very hard to connect these dots, in my mind. You'd really have to have a market in a location with very stable population, minimal growth, and an active agricultural sector to see such effects, if they existed.

 

[Mztk1]

Well the virus has been around and the bee population has been on decline for years now. In fact that 30% loss you quote is generally accepted to be 30% over the past 25 years. It is sort of like the MRSA virus, around for a long time, but now that it hits the television news there is a new awareness about it. That awareness DOES affect value. Still, I'd have to think that the almond growers especially, and the farmers buying and selling other honeybee dependent farms, have been aware of the situation since the 1990s and that the value effects would be felt, but are most likely concealed by the regular shifts in the market.

I'd say the cost of produce would be another place to see it, but of course the cost of produce is now so affected by the rising costs of transport and the dropping value of the dollar, that it would be hard to isolate the honeybee effect. Don't get me wrong, I bet it is there. We'd just have to control the other variables, but controlling them in theory is easy, in actual practice nearly impossible.

It would make a great dissertation for a Masters or Ph. D. in appraising. And I think the data would be so dense that it would qualify.

 

[Mztk1]

The earth revolving around the sun was theory until our space program put us out there and it was proven. Now it would be considered fact. Evolution, on the other hand, has no solid proof. Fossil records of transitional phases appear to be like hen's teeth. I'll leave it there, as this is starting to get dangerously close to a Lounge discussion, which is an extinct beast. :new_smile-l:

I agree on the fact that Einstein is often used to give credibility to statements, perhaps where it is not warranted.

Back to the bee thing. One would have to support a loss in income due to decreased crop production, then draw the conclusion that it is the dwindling bee population. The loss in income would then have to result lower ag land pricing. With all the other market factors that typically affect land prices in most market areas, it would be very hard to connect these dots, in my mind. You'd really have to have a market in a location with very stable population, minimal growth, and an active agricultural sector to see such effects, if they existed.

Well at the risk of this being a loung topic, Heliocentrism is still considered a theory by science:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heliocentrism

And evolution is considered in the scientific community as much as proven as the earth moving around the sun is. There are plenty of transitional fossils, and now the DNA analysis supports everything as well. A good lay-person's read to hear all the interconnections of life is "An Ancestor's Tale" by the now infamous to some, heroic to others, Richard Dawkins.

Funny how you brought up the chicken without teeth. Amazingly scientists were able to get the DNA from a T-Rex and when they analyzed it they found not only is the T-Rex DNA the precursor to today's bird DNA, but the most similar DNA of all the birds analyzed to the T-Rex was the chicken. That rooster has teeth. You'd be amazed.

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/discoveries/2007-04-12-trex-protein_N.htm

 

[Mr Rex]

No one in my family descended from chickens. Some do have short arms though.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Right now in Arkansas anything that can grow corn, wheat or soybeans is bringing a premium. I appraised minerals in E Arkansas 3 years ago where the appraisers working on the land value were coming in from 800 - 1400 an acre. I was in Searcy and found two farms selling in the area without any mineral rights for $2200 - 2600 per acre.. The 3 commodities above are nearly 3 x higher.

Orchard properties on the other hand appear to have pretty much collapsed in the past 10 years and we get most apples, peaches, etc from S. America now. We are importing food almost as much as we import oil.

 

[Wayne Tomlinson]

In western Illinois, there is little bee culture on the agricultural crops produced here. Bees are important in alfalfa and clover seed production, but not much in hay production. As far as I am aware, there is neglible or no effect on corn or soybean production.

That being said and I am aware of some of the disease problems in honey bee colonies, but the price of farm land in this area has gone up in the past few years without pause.

Land prices had gone up from the depth of the depression an an irregular but steady rate until about 1980, when the great President Jimmy Carter blessed us all with 19 to 22% interest rate on all loans and the bottom dropped out of the farm land market in 1980 to the lowest in about 1984. This corrected itself with return to the pre 1980 prices around 1995 to 2000.

Since then farmland prices, uneffected by nearby development has continued to go up with no end in sight. In my particular area, there is also a great market in "recreation land". This is stuff that previously was just "thrown in" with the tillable. Now, in the land that has both it is near impossible to analyze a particlar sale and say with authority the amount of contribution to value came from the cropland or from the woods.

Of course on each sale, it is necessary to make a determination about the contribution of each part, but it may be a little suspect.

But back to the original post. No, I have seen no effect on land prices due to the disease infectiing the honey bees in my market

Wayne Tomlinson

 

[murray stroupe]

Re; Property E & Honey Bee

I have been reading Jim and the bee population around the world is down about 36%, in the western states of the US its about 60% and on the east coast they are estimating 70%. The drop is alarming given the need of bees to survival of man.
I was also reading and Albert Einstein said if the bees disappear man has four years of life remaining. That is pretty alarming.
I was curious if the effects of the population drop were being seen in commercial agricultural markets.

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Property E
[a]I like Terrels & Wayne comments, because they see more sales than I.
Drought [now over hopefully]seemed to stall some sales more than anything else in West TN.
[c] I spend 2-12 hours outside, depending on my work location;
have seen a very noticeable decrease in honey bees & bumble bees,past several years.Fortunately, plenty of other insects pollinate, wind does also.

And today i saw a very notable huge number of honeybee,bumble bees on stag horn sumac flowers today.First time in a long time i saw that.
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I don't use much commercial insecticide[honeybee killers] & have half of my land in young pines/weeds, wildflowers.One researcher said organic farms do better with honeybee populations.