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Indecent [market] Exposure

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ZZGAMAZZ

Senior Member
Joined
Jul 23, 2007
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
California
D.O.M. being measured in hours rather than months, everywhere I look?????
 

ZZGAMAZZ

Senior Member
Joined
Jul 23, 2007
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
California
It's been a while since the irrational exuberance of the mid-2000's tulip rush, but I do not recall the supply/demand ratio as having been cited as that much of a factor. I am aware that prominent sources have confirmed a historically low volume of listings for the past several months but don't understand why supply is constrained, unless potential sellers are waiting in the wings for additional increases before they go to market; but if so, the upswing could be perpetuated for months & months, with list prices continually above market value.

CAVEAT: If anyone has time to review the CRMLS housing market data that is presented in chart format, please help me to understand why the Moreno Valley 95221 location just nose-dived dramatically, with the change in direction apparently not an anomaly because it is based on a large volume of sales.

BTW: Shout out to R.K. Hope you're doing well.
 

Randolph Kinney

Elite Member
Joined
Apr 7, 2005
Professional Status
Retired Appraiser
State
North Carolina
BTW: Shout out to R.K. Hope you're doing well.

Thanks. Doing well in Pisgah Forest, North Carolina.

I sold my house in Carlsbad, California within 24 hours of listing it on December 13, 2016 for full price, no concessions.
 

hastalavista

Elite Member
Joined
May 16, 2005
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
California
It's been a while since the irrational exuberance of the mid-2000's tulip rush, but I do not recall the supply/demand ratio as having been cited as that much of a factor. I am aware that prominent sources have confirmed a historically low volume of listings for the past several months but don't understand why supply is constrained, unless potential sellers are waiting in the wings for additional increases before they go to market; but if so, the upswing could be perpetuated for months & months, with list prices continually above market value.

CAVEAT: If anyone has time to review the CRMLS housing market data that is presented in chart format, please help me to understand why the Moreno Valley 95221 location just nose-dived dramatically, with the change in direction apparently not an anomaly because it is based on a large volume of sales.

I don't have access to your date, but in general, if there is a low-inventory level, a slight positive change in demand can have a significant impact on pricing (now people are in a bidding war) until supply gets to equilibrium.

Indeed, in such a market, the expectation is that the increase in demand will directly result in a spike in prices. This is a market where it should be expected that the latest sale will sell higher than anything else, all other things being equal. While there usually isn't enough data to analyze a trend (it has just broken into a new direction) there is data... the low-inventory levels being part of it and, hopefully, evidence of multiple bids or short-listing times... to logically argue there has been a shift in demand resulting in a market-supported increase in values.
 

Ken Masla

Junior Member
Joined
Jul 17, 2006
Professional Status
General Public
State
California
It's been a while since the irrational exuberance of the mid-2000's tulip rush, but I do not recall the supply/demand ratio as having been cited as that much of a factor. I am aware that prominent sources have confirmed a historically low volume of listings for the past several months but don't understand why supply is constrained, unless potential sellers are waiting in the wings for additional increases before they go to market; but if so, the upswing could be perpetuated for months & months, with list prices continually above market value.

CAVEAT: If anyone has time to review the CRMLS housing market data that is presented in chart format, please help me to understand why the Moreno Valley 95221 location just nose-dived dramatically, with the change in direction apparently not an anomaly because it is based on a large volume of sales.

BTW: Shout out to R.K. Hope you're doing well.

Have you tried analyzing the data outside of MLS? MLS systems sometimes populates the data incorrectly. Try it the old fashioned way.

I don't see a nose dive.
 

ZZGAMAZZ

Senior Member
Joined
Jul 23, 2007
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
California
Have you tried analyzing the data outside of MLS? MLS systems sometimes populates the data incorrectly. Try it the old fashioned way.

I don't see a nose dive.
Did you take a moment to review the specific source I asked about. Sales volume up, exposure down, listings down . . . and median selling price down, despite that all of the other factors speak to the opposite direction, with the increasing volume too large for the change in direction to be anomalous.
 

Ken Masla

Junior Member
Joined
Jul 17, 2006
Professional Status
General Public
State
California
Did you take a moment to review the specific source I asked about. Sales volume up, exposure down, listings down . . . and median selling price down, despite that all of the other factors speak to the opposite direction, with the increasing volume too large for the change in direction to be anomalous.

Yes I did.

What i meant was, did you export the data outside what is available in MLS. Not listings outside of MLS but the functions of MLS.

If you let MLS do some of the analytical work, like figuring out median prices, etc, they can be in error. If you export the numbers on a spreadsheet it can be a lot different than what MLS analytics will tell you.
 

ZZGAMAZZ

Senior Member
Joined
Jul 23, 2007
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
California
Yes I did.

What i meant was, did you export the data outside what is available in MLS. Not listings outside of MLS but the functions of MLS.

If you let MLS do some of the analytical work, like figuring out median prices, etc, they can be in error. If you export the numbers on a spreadsheet it can be a lot different than what MLS analytics will tell you.
Sorry so long to replay but I've been busy. Yes, for every assignment I cite published sources and then dump the results of various searches, of public records as well as MLS, into Excel where functions as simple as deleting everything but the selling price and selling date columns allow the remaining two columns first to be sorted by selling price so outliers can be deleted, and the initial results, based on the most liberal search criteria, can be used to describe the overall market and to populate the Page 1 1-Unit Housing Trends "high" and "low," ; ; ; and then sort by the date column, import a line chart for 12, 24, 36 months, . . . and than progressively add additional search filters until the final data/chart depicts the subject's market niche. Then, however, it's often necessary to determine whether the published data or your independent research should be cited as the basis of "trending," which is complex if the results are contradictory. Nevertheless, after devoting twice as much time to the market analysis as to the SCA, I inevitably wonder whether an intended user has ever read that section of the report.... I appreciate your insight and agree 10000%.
 
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