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Looking at raising minimum wage level to $15/hour.

Meandering

Elite Member
Joined
Feb 26, 2006
Professional Status
Real Estate Agent or Broker
State
Pennsylvania
Ghee,

You think appraiser mentors are going to acquire sufficient fees to pay trainees hourly?

:rof: :rof:
 

glenn walker

Elite Member
Joined
Oct 11, 2006
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
California
Ghee,

You think appraiser mentors are going to acquire sufficient fees to pay trainees hourly?

:rof: :rof:
Actually the minimum wage has no effect on appraisers employing trainees. Even at a Zero wage there are few instances where taking on a trainee makes any sense. The way State licensing boards, have adopted rules and guidelines, essentially all the trainee can do is inside office work, and I would have to go with him or her on inspections.
 

Meandering

Elite Member
Joined
Feb 26, 2006
Professional Status
Real Estate Agent or Broker
State
Pennsylvania
Actually the minimum wage has no effect on appraisers employing trainees. Even at a Zero wage there are few instances where taking on a trainee makes any sense. The way State licensing boards, have adopted rules and guidelines, essentially all the trainee can do is inside office work, and I would have to go with him or her on inspections.

Ah but,

Those "clients" that have staff, the staff are going to need raises just to survive the tsunami of inflation,
and where do those "clients" get the extra money to give their staff raises???

Oh yeah, customary and reasonable fee appraisers who are not employees.

:rof: :rof: :rof: :rof:
 

Terrel L. Shields

Elite Member
Gold Supporting Member
Joined
May 2, 2002
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Arkansas
a skilled Auto Shop employee let's say is making $25 per hour.
Half the dealerships hire ex-cons and pay minimum wage because they know they can get by with it. The Con has to work or go back to jail. Meanwhile labor costs are charged to the customer at $100-125/hour. Mechanics are paid "by the book" so if the job is supposed to take 2 hours but it takes 4 the mechanic is paid for 2 hours. If they slop thru it in 45 minutes...well, you can guess the rest.
 
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NP_MAI

Senior Member
Joined
Apr 10, 2018
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Florida
Half the dealerships hire ex-cons and pay minimum wage because they know they can get by with it. The Con has to work or go back to jail. Meanwhile labor costs are changed to the customer at $100-125/hour. Mechanics are paid "by the book" so if the job is supposed to take 2 hours but it takes 4 the mechanic is paid for 2 hours. If they slop thru it in 45 minutes...well, you can guess the rest.
Man terrel, you have been really pessimistic lately.
 

Bert Craytor

Senior Member
Joined
Jun 27, 2017
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
California
With more people working gig jobs and part time, the traditional employment is losing ground anyway... we can all speculate but like any change will have both positive and negative - in my state of Florida the vote was to raise min wage to $15 an hour, to be phased in over next several years.

On the positive side a higher wage puts discretionary income into people's pockets which they can spend it locally and thus fuel other businesses in an area. I think the coming decades will see many changes in compensation and work, with pending AI and robots a scary threat no matter what the wage level - clearly people need to think ahead and govt can't just leave it up to the market... unless they want a large portion of people with no jobs, no income, living on the streets - can't go back in time have to go forward whatever that means with newer concepts of work and income, the old did not hold up very well did it, a brief shut down and so many businesses went under, shows even with paying low or modest wages the businesses had no reserves and people under earning can not save so they had no reserves either. other had no reserves so something was clearly wrong. future, idk, micro businesses ? more self sufficiency with aqua culture? Reshape buying habits instead of buying cheap crap from China buy local? Instead of buying crap food at an anymous fast food chain buy from a local small restaurant ?? Consumers shape the economy too which means our values shape it wrt where we choose to buy or spend.

Let's take things to the extremes and see what would happen:

1. Set the minimum wage to $0. Consequence: Companies will only pay what they have to, to get people to do the quantity and quality of work they consider satisfactory. There is a good balance between supply and demand of labor.

2. Set the minimum wage to $100. Consequence: 60%+ of companies will cease to exist unless they can find almost purely automated solutions to their labor shortage. Robots will flourish. Robots can build robots, so don't count on much more demand from that area. The government will go bankrupt supporting the unemployed and eventually the vast majority of citizens will go hungry on the street.

(Hint: High Tech loves minimum wage. The higher it is the more incentive to automate and that is good for their business.)

$15.00+ minimum wage? Why any minimum wage at all? We don't need it.

Life, Liberty and The Pursuit of Happiness (Through Hard Work).
 
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Terrel L. Shields

Elite Member
Gold Supporting Member
Joined
May 2, 2002
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Arkansas
Man terrel, you have been really pessimistic lately.
I prefer to think of it as realistic. I have seen a number of folks who were skilled mechanics who worked with a dealership for minimum wages. But the con on parole has the hardest time finding a better job. And woe to a professional who goes to jail. I had a chum in the oil biz that went to prison for 3 lousy marijuana plants on his porch. He had to sell the place, went to jail for nigh a year and it took 10 years before he could get his crime pardoned by the governor, and then he resumed his career as an engineering geologist working for an environmental company. He is still working largely because he spent tons of money clearing his name and having to spend 10 years underpaid because of his past.
As for optimism, under Biden we will see an effort to stifle the energy industry except wind and solar (neither geothermal nor nuclear will be spared) and that will result in the changing of the whip hand from the USA and its oil independence, to OPEC and Russia in the drivers seat...and they like higher prices, which will in turn, happen anyway because of a weak dollar.
Robots will flourish. Robots can build robots, so don't count on much more demand from that area.
If no robots existed with $0 wages, then almost 100% will exist if minimum wage is $100/hr. So some robots will thrive at $15/hr...15%? I am suspecting the threshold for 100% adoption of robotics is lower than $100/hr labor. So...where is the breaking point? We've rather ignored the slow progression of robotics and automation since the doomsday forecasts of the 1950s.

As a child, my aunt worked in a poultry processing plant. The birds were plucked by hand, degutted by hand, and cut up with a pair of meat scissors. They were packaged and weighed by hand. Those scissor got dull and could be taken apart and sharpened-another job that disappeared. Plucking and evisceration is done now by machine, and it takes less than half the staff it took 50 years ago.

As a teen, I had a 1½ T truck and a loader. In a bucking crew, it took 4 - a driver, a loader on each side and someone on the truck to stack. With the loader, we could put 2 men on the truck and no one bucking - 3 man crew. With the bale wagon, you only needed one man to operate the wagon. With round bales a 70 year old can load the same tonnage as we did in half the time, move it miles away, and dump the bale wagon without touching the hay, stack it in a barn with a tractor and bale spears.

Automation is constant and productive increases are required to not fall behind. But what happens when there are no "entry level" jobs? What will people do? Do you expect the robot owner to share their wealth? Or do you expect those who adopt robotics to see a diminishing amount of business because their customers have no job and no money?
 

Bert Craytor

Senior Member
Joined
Jun 27, 2017
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
California
I prefer to think of it as realistic. I have seen a number of folks who were skilled mechanics who worked with a dealership for minimum wages. But the con on parole has the hardest time finding a better job. And woe to a professional who goes to jail. I had a chum in the oil biz that went to prison for 3 lousy marijuana plants on his porch. He had to sell the place, went to jail for nigh a year and it took 10 years before he could get his crime pardoned by the governor, and then he resumed his career as an engineering geologist working for an environmental company. He is still working largely because he spent tons of money clearing his name and having to spend 10 years underpaid because of his past.
As for optimism, under Biden we will see an effort to stifle the energy industry except wind and solar (neither geothermal nor nuclear will be spared) and that will result in the changing of the whip hand from the USA and its oil independence, to OPEC and Russia in the drivers seat...and they like higher prices, which will in turn, happen anyway because of a weak dollar.

If no robots existed with $0 wages, then almost 100% will exist if minimum wage is $100/hr. So some robots will thrive at $15/hr...15%? I am suspecting the threshold for 100% adoption of robotics is lower than $100/hr labor. So...where is the breaking point? We've rather ignored the slow progression of robotics and automation since the doomsday forecasts of the 1950s.

As a child, my aunt worked in a poultry processing plant. The birds were plucked by hand, degutted by hand, and cut up with a pair of meat scissors. They were packaged and weighed by hand. Those scissor got dull and could be taken apart and sharpened-another job that disappeared. Plucking and evisceration is done now by machine, and it takes less than half the staff it took 50 years ago.

As a teen, I had a 1½ T truck and a loader. In a bucking crew, it took 4 - a driver, a loader on each side and someone on the truck to stack. With the loader, we could put 2 men on the truck and no one bucking - 3 man crew. With the bale wagon, you only needed one man to operate the wagon. With round bales a 70 year old can load the same tonnage as we did in half the time, move it miles away, and dump the bale wagon without touching the hay, stack it in a barn with a tractor and bale spears.

Automation is constant and productive increases are required to not fall behind. But what happens when there are no "entry level" jobs? What will people do? Do you expect the robot owner to share their wealth? Or do you expect those who adopt robotics to see a diminishing amount of business because their customers have no job and no money?

It makes analysis easier to push things out the extreme and then work backwards. $15 is actually too much almost. I'm not sure. It's in the grey area. Get it up to $25 and I'm sure that it won't be long before Mcdonald's has at most one manager working inside. But on the bright side, you likely will be able to get a fresh Mcdonald's meal any time of the day or night.
 

Terrel L. Shields

Elite Member
Gold Supporting Member
Joined
May 2, 2002
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Arkansas
A small Pizza place I often patronize was, once again, shut down because they have small spaces and with only 4 usable tables cannot afford to have a waitress. So it is carry out only. The normal six people there are now down to 3, sometimes 4. I picked a pizza up at noon. 3 working, including the owner. They can't hold out much longer. This time last year, the place would be at its capacity plus about the same amount of carry out they do now. It's capacity is only about 50 to begin with. But with 6' restrictions they'd be down to 20 or less. It's just not worth putting someone on the floor for that few people.
 

NachoPerito

Senior Member
Joined
Jul 25, 2012
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Washington
Washington state is at $13.69/hour now so it wouldn't be a big change for us.$15/hour would have a much different effect based on geography and is hard to implement nationwide when the median income is so different in different places. Sometimes people find the value in work and it can be good for their mental health. This is an argument against a $15/hour across the board increase because it would lead to business owners trying to reduce their staff.
 
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