Market Adjustments

[phoebe33764]

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Are you filtering MLS data or public record to excel?

 

[Metamorphic]

MLS.

I dont know how it is where you are but the public record stuff is a PITA to the point of worthlessnes right now; half the data is trustee's sales.

 

[Abzntminded]

MLS.

I dont know how it is where you are but the public record stuff is a PITA to the point of worthlessnes right now; half the data is trustee's sales.

Do you use public records to verify that the MLS "closed" sales were actually closed?

 

[Metamorphic]

No. Not when I'm doing a thing like this. The whole point of a statical analysis is that no point is critical, and I've not found in this area that you find bad sale data in the MLS. If it does occur on occasion, its not enough to change the gist of the chart.

 

[Abzntminded]

No. Not when I'm doing a thing like this. The whole point of a statical analysis is that no point is critical, and I've not found in this area that you find bad sale data in the MLS. If it does occur on occasion, its not enough to change the gist of the chart.

It's interesting... My impression is that we work in the same region, and yet we end up with very different opinions of the same thing.

There are some areas I've seen this year where well over half of the sales reported as closed by the listing agent actually fell out. About half of the remaining sales actually closed for significantly less than the agent said it closed for. The agent's motivation is to keep their stats looking good, as though they're selling homes when they're not.

But as far as your graphs, have you gotten any feedback from your clients about them?
Any difference in feedback between a processor, LO, underwriter or reviewer?

 

[Metamorphic]

So let me get this straight. You see a "sale" in the MLS. You go looking for it in pub record (I use realist and NDC) and you dont find it there? I can honestly say I've never seen that. Occasionally there will be a slight discrepancy in the date (a day plus or minus) and a small difference in price (rounding to the nearest 1000), sometimes you'll see something in pub rec that wasnt done through the MLS, but that's it. I know sometimes the agents play cutesy with the relisting dates to keep the DOM's low, but that data is pretty flakey anyway since its indication of the state of the market is always secondary to the pricing and marketing.

My Supervisor fields all the calls from the processors, so I only get 2nd hand feedback on that account, but what I've heard has been positive. Seems like he answers questions by referring them to the graph, not that he answers questions about the graph.

 

[phoebe33764]

MLS.

I dont know how it is where you are but the public record stuff is a PITA to the point of worthlessnes right now; half the data is trustee's sales.

You've got that right. So many of the sales are non-qualified and in Florida, just confirming the sales take half the day.

 

[Mztk1]

Jim Klos,
I read your post with full attention. When I got to the end of it all I came up with a couple of questions.

1. After all the research and numbers crunching where do you find time to write a report?
2. I can't but wonder with all the fraud that is popping up all over Florida and California (because they seem to have such high occurances of it) how accurate and reliable do you think your data is. I wonder how much that fraud skews the data.
3. Do you realy think that the underwriters that gets all that data really understands its validity, can verify it or Frankly gives a damn?

Remember my intent is not to rain on your parade.

Don't get me wrong I am thoroghly impressed with the depth of your research and for you it helps you personaly understand the market. But at the end of the day does it realy help the reader of your report to understand and be informed of what you are conveying to them? Maybe you dela with a different breed of underwriters and I realy am not attempting to put them down (gods knows how many read this forum) reality is real!!!

1. I'd put my production numbers up against anyone. I guess I am a rare breed who I believes quality, speed and affordable is possible. Anyone who can do it will carve a very good niche.

2. First, the fraud happens in pockets and as an appraiser who knows my market, I know the areas that are more affected by fraud than others. I have to be on guard when appraising anyplace, but especially in those place. Second, if you have fraud in both sets of data, there is a good chance it will level itself out and you'll still get a good read on declining data. Also, the data has to mesh with the pending and active sales, as well as the closing dates of the comparables. The loss seen in the actual closed and available inventory should be consistent, and when it isn't (rare if ever) you can look for reasons why.

3. Aboslutely. Loan officers do not love me because I make value. In fact I kill a lot of refis (and sales in the current market). Mortgage brokers who use me for the first or second time are not thrilled with me either. My reputation with them builds with use. Underwriters and review appraisers (inhouse reviewers too) are comfortable with my work and there are rarely any requests or problems with a file I do from either of those two areas. (I have maybe one addendum request every 3 to 4 months tops and most of the time it has nothing to do with my work but a technical thing to do with title). The loan officers who use me do so because they know if I say the value is there the report will make it through all types of scrutinity. There are no false hopes. My best reference letters come from well seasoned underwriters and review appraisers, and I am very proud of that.

 

[Abzntminded]

So let me get this straight. You see a "sale" in the MLS. You go looking for it in pub record (I use realist and NDC) and you dont find it there? I can honestly say I've never seen that. Occasionally there will be a slight discrepancy in the date (a day plus or minus) and a small difference in price (rounding to the nearest 1000), sometimes you'll see something in pub rec that wasnt done through the MLS, but that's it. I know sometimes the agents play cutesy with the relisting dates to keep the DOM's low, but that data is pretty flakey anyway since its indication of the state of the market is always secondary to the pricing and marketing.

My Supervisor fields all the calls from the processors, so I only get 2nd hand feedback on that account, but what I've heard has been positive. Seems like he answers questions by referring them to the graph, not that he answers questions about the graph.

I was working on a report this morning. Initially the list of closed comps was narrowed to six. Here's 2 of them: p610871, s494147.

The graphs are intriguing, but I spend at least an additional 30 minutes per report (these days) picking through the public records to eliminate bad MLS data for the comps, so I'd be reluctant to spend that much more time on market analysis, unless it told a different story than what I was already doing.

 

[Metamorphic]

You must be in a different MLS. The 2 I use do not have letters in the listing numbers.

If your MLS is that chuck full of bad data that's a problem. You'd think the organization that runs the MLS would police that a little better. Nothing worse than a data base full of garbage. .