Market Conditions: Am I on the right track?

[Rufus]

The attached PDF file is a sample of what I've been doing for my market analysis. I would appreciate comments.

 

[Smokey Bear]

I just love spread sheet geeks! Most of that, however, will be over the heads of most of your readers, unfortunately. How about going the next step and giving them a chart?

 

[Rufus]

How about going the next step and giving them a chart?

I do intend to incorporate charts as well, but haven't gotten to it yet. I have been particularly impressed with those that Metamorphic does.

When I produce a report, I actually have a competent review appraiser in mind, not necessarily an underwriter or a flunky.

 

[jay trotta]

It is the underwriter OR flunky that goes thru your stuff to see ifn it will pass the regatta test, not your selected reviewer.

Perhaps thats good in your area, dunno - but in my area you can take the Charts / Graphs / Spreedsheets and all that other creative work and thro it out the winder......reality may not be agreeable to those particular parts of economics. We have a small state and it doesn't take much to scewer all of that, therefore in most instances it won't work here.

 

[Riick]

Great data, but probably overkill. Here's what I supplied lately.

(( BTW _ Would love to know how you get the DOM data onto same chart w/right hand scale. ))

 

[Metamorphic]

Great data, but probably overkill. Here's what I supplied lately.

(( BTW _ Would love to know how you get the DOM data onto same chart w/right hand scale. ))

If you want I can try to make a jing video of how I do. I've never done a jing video before but it sounds pretty easy.

I'll give it a shot. BRB.

 

[Tim Hicks (Texas)]

Overkill and relatively useless. They don't care about the market five years ago. They want to know about the changes in the past year. You would be better served to break it down to the previous year and then break the year prior to the effective date down into quarters to show current market trends. You are analyzing the current market as compared to the trend for your comparable sales in the past year, six months and three months.

My opinion is that the whole thing is a collosal waste of time for you and the reader.

It will not impress anybody, unless it deals with the current market and recent past market as it pertains to the data in the report.

 

[Metamorphic]

There are very sound mathematical/statistical reasons for showing a longer time line.

Most persuasive of these arguments is that if you're going to use a trendline generated by a numerical model the, the model's interpretation of the recent data that you're interested will be anchored by the historic data. If you cherry pick a shorter time line you can make the trend look like just about anything. Start your graph the day before that freak high end sale and you get a downward trend, start your graph the day before that scrape-off sold, and you get an upward trend. Even if you dont do that on purpose, just the way the dates fall by chance can have the same effect.

All that old data speaks to the credibility of the current data. The way you can draw a reasonable conclusion of trend across a data set with the kind of variability we see in home prices is to look at longer time lines that put the magnitude fo the variability into proper perspective.

And it really doesn't take much time once you're up to speed.

 

[WadeKoutnik]

Great data, but probably overkill. Here's what I supplied lately.

(( BTW _ Would love to know how you get the DOM data onto same chart w/right hand scale. ))

Rick I think that works very well for an established zip code. But what happens in a developing zip code when a new community sells 50 homes during that period. A single neighborhood is going to affect the MA of your subject?

I personally think there are too many variables that can skew the numbers. Unless the subject is in a PUD with a good amount of data (sales) its useless. It may give you something to justify a date of sale adjustment but even that is highly suspect.

 

[Metamorphic]

Rick I think that works very well for an established zip code. But what happens in a developing zip code when a new community sells 50 homes during that period.

Filter the data to remove anything with a build date more recent than 2 years, and disclose what you did and why.