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Mortgage more costly 12/1

Fernando

Thread Starter
Senior Member
Joined
Nov 7, 2016
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
California
I talked with my favorite mortgage broker. I needed some help on a property regarding a silly stip and she had the info from another similar property to back me up.
Anyway, she mentioned that starting 12/1, something about Fannie charging more to get a mortgage.
That means the refi boom may be over. :cryingsmiley:
 

sputnam

Senior Member
Joined
Apr 24, 2012
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
North Carolina
I haven't heard anything like that. Shouldn't be hard to research it though.
 

glenn walker

Elite Member
Joined
Oct 11, 2006
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
California
They had started and stopped the extra fee a few times and now its been moved to December. It's actually a .05% fee which can be included or back-loaded into the loan or fee's and will have almost no effect on refinances. Also by December most will have already have done their 2.5% rate deals and the refi-boom will be nearing the end -- unless they get the rates down to 1.5%-2% and that will mean we are in a recession from hell and then values may start to be the problem. We are on a poker table but its hard to believe that when seeing 25% plus as of today tenants not paying rents, we are going to see a lot of small property owners and newer landlords who are leveraged get into trouble. And lets not even talk about commercial :)
 

USPAP Compliant

Elite Member
Joined
Jan 15, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
North Carolina
I talked with my favorite mortgage broker. I needed some help on a property regarding a silly stip and she had the info from another similar property to back me up.
Anyway, she mentioned that starting 12/1, something about Fannie charging more to get a mortgage.
That means the refi boom may be over. :cryingsmiley:
 

USPAP Compliant

Elite Member
Joined
Jan 15, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
North Carolina
I talked with my favorite mortgage broker. I needed some help on a property regarding a silly stip and she had the info from another similar property to back me up.
Anyway, she mentioned that starting 12/1, something about Fannie charging more to get a mortgage.
That means the refi boom may be over. :cryingsmiley:
 

Carolina1

Freshman Member
Gold Supporting Member
Joined
Apr 12, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
North Carolina
From an appraisal volume standpoint, I wouldn't worry about the refi boom disappearing as a result of the 0.05 refi adder. Prior to the announcement that the adder was being delayed by the GSEs, the upcharge on mortgage loans reflected a net increase of 10-12bps to borrower. Although the panic by the mortgage lenders/aggregators of not having time to pass those costs to the borrower for loans in the pipeline (or seasoning) has abated because of the delayed implementation date for the adder, we can expect new loans to begin reflecting the 10-12bps increase in short order as mortgage lenders prepare loan deliveries that may bump against December 1st. Regardless, for many refi loans, mortgage rates are currently ~75-100bps less than they were at the start of the year. As such, I doubt that a 10-12bps increase to the borrower will do much to slow refinance activity. Of course, there are other factors that may slow refinancing activity.
 

glenn walker

Elite Member
Joined
Oct 11, 2006
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
California
What will slow any and all markets will be when the true effect and layoffs finally settle in. One of my neighbors is an-Air-Traffic Controller, She just got laid off and worse her husband is a Pilot and looks like he is also getting laid off at teh end of the month, says thousands of pilots are going to be gone by year end. Where does a Pilot and air Traffic Controller find another job ? And no the Air Force is not looking for old pilots :)
 

GWISC

Junior Member
Joined
Dec 3, 2014
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Wisconsin
Glen, I indicated a "like" for your last submission. I don't like what is going on, I am just agreeing with your prognosis. Just thought I would clarify. I do not take glee in anyone getting laid off. I experienced that a few years ago. It is somber time to go through day after day until you get back on your feet. I do not believe any of my neighbors are in that boat, but I think it is a just a matter of time.
 

Fernando

Thread Starter
Senior Member
Joined
Nov 7, 2016
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
California
One homeowner said he is saving $300/mo from current low mortgage rates. I don't want rates to go too low otherwise there won't be room later to go down more.
Ideal is low at this rate and later months go even lower so they can refinance again like the good old days.
 

GWISC

Junior Member
Joined
Dec 3, 2014
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Wisconsin
One homeowner said he is saving $300/mo from current low mortgage rates. I don't want rates to go too low otherwise there won't be room later to go down more.
Ideal is low at this rate and later months go even lower so they can refinance again like the good old days.
Fernando, I have been through refinance binges before. Some are intense and super busy, others are just somewhat busier. Seems like I have endured about about 4 or 5. Seems like the always take place during a lead-up to a presidential election, but not every presidential election. There seems to be one ever 7-10 years. Most of the time, the trend of volume follows a pattern:

This is just my guess as to what the future will see:
I think that sometime after the election, could be months or even a year, the rates will increase, but only moderately. Then the pendulum of volume will swing to being very slow for about as long as it was super busy. Then there will be a nominal amount of workload for several years. The appraisal assignments, for the first few years, will be a mix of typical bank loans for home purchases and likely foreclosures from those who got in over their heads on this last binge. Some assignments will be assignments for borrowers to get rid of PMI.

After another 7-8 years, the stock market may show some volatility, likely due to another lead-up to a presidential election as that is one cause of uncertainty for the markets. This will cause money to go from stocks to the safety of treasury notes, and then the mortgage rates will come down again. All those who bought homes during the years with elevated rates will then want to refinance, and those who have low rates that bought in today's market, will want to cash-out refinance. Hopefully, I will be retired by then.
 
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