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NAR Blames Media, Will They Blame Fannie?

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Terrel L. Shields

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http://www.pbs.org/nbr/headlines/Fannie_Mae_Shareholders/index.html

Fannie Mae's CEO told shareholders Friday he does not expect a housing market recovery until late 2009, "at the earliest,"

The big dog now claims it may be 2010 before a housing recovery. I bet that doesn't sit well with the NAR who keeps predicting 2008 will be the turnaround year and argues that all the negative PRESS coming from the MEDIA is causing a delay in the nadir being reached and real recovery occuring. It is also the LENDERS fault alone....:fiddle:

There is enough blame to go around and only the irrational...like Lawrence Yun of the NAR..[either irrational Pollyanna or big fat liar]...predict otherwise.

Yun was quoted last week

...price appreciation is holding up better than media reports would have us believe. In data we collected ...two-thirds of markets reported positive price growth in the third quarter, up from half of all markets in the second quarter. In markets where prices continue to be down, the declines are minimal....

RM: Why the dramatically different picture than what some analysts are seeing?

Yun: In some ways we’re tracking different things. We use MLS data, so our figures are as timely as possible and are more representative of markets. Shiller uses county records and mortgage data from the secondary market. These sources lag further than ours and they capture a disproportionate percentage of higher-priced homes.

RM: where will the home-sale market be in 2008?

Yun: Nationally, we’re forecasting ..a comeback and rise to 6.1 million or 6.2 million units, up from about 6 million in 2006, and prices will also rise about 2 percent.
:rof: Yep, its all the media's fault. they are liars.
 

Randolph Kinney

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I have totally stopped reading anything from NAR. I don't pay any attention to their phony statistics and new releases.
 

George Hatch

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The median is a lagging indicator in markets where the higher dollar homes represent a larger proportion of the sales. Which is most of them. San Diego's median was going up even while on a house-to-house basis the prices were dropping - it was because of the different distribution of data in the datasets being compared.

Just look at Case-Shiller's graph and you know the difference between what it shows and what Yun is saying is way beyond a reasonable margin of error. Quite simply, one of them has to be very wrong. And Shiller doesn't work for a corporate constituency.
 

Restrain

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Foreclosures still keep rising...and rising. Article in today's paper said how Canadians were starting to buy condos in FL as the Loonie had increased by 30% in relation to the dollar. Still not enough to make a substantial dent in the flood of inventory, but agents were glad to get someone to actually buy.
 

Marcia Langley

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You can fool some of the people some of the time by claiming the media has misreported.

That's why Yun, the NAR, and other spin doctors can get milage out of their lies with enough people to make it worth doing. Telling obvious and transparent lies without blushing is a valued skill.
 

Workbox

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I am taking some classes with a Realtor, and there have and are making changes in there books. They would have trianing words to tell the client, "our goal is to help you achieve the highest possible price in the shortest time." Now they are injecting the words "the price that the market allows". Also, there sure have been many intranet emails, with agents selling their supplies and signs. Mmmm?
 

murray stroupe

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Re

http://www.pbs.org/nbr/headlines/Fannie_Mae_Shareholders/index.html



The big dog now claims it may be 2010 before a housing recovery. I bet that doesn't sit well with the NAR who keeps predicting 2008 will be the turnaround year and argues that all the negative PRESS coming from the MEDIA is causing a delay in the nadir being reached and real recovery occuring. It is also the LENDERS fault alone....:fiddle:

There is enough blame to go around and only the irrational...like Lawrence Yun of the NAR..[either irrational Pollyanna or big fat liar]...predict otherwise.

Yun was quoted last week

:rof: Yep, its all the media's fault. they are liars.
========================================

Well they picked a good sector to scapegoat;
the media, many of them deserve it for thier unbalanced,biased false coverage,
but not all lie consistently.

We could even blame the chinese;
their letter meaning crisis, also means opportunity.LOL
 

murray stroupe

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Re

I am taking some classes with a Realtor, and there have and are making changes in there books. They would have trianing words to tell the client, "our goal is to help you achieve the highest possible price in the shortest time." Now they are injecting the words "the price that the market allows". Also, there sure have been many intranet emails, with agents selling their supplies and signs. Mmmm?
==================
Neat work, workbox;
that figures, it started in TX
 

Couch Potato

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Yun is right about discussing different things. Two-thirds of the markets are doing fine, but those two-thirds might only contain about 15% of the nations houses. Not all markets are equal, for instance, the Los Angeles market is much larger than the Lower Alabama market.
 

Brad Ellis

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George,

Just look at Case-Shiller's graph and you know the difference between what it shows and what Yun is saying is way beyond a reasonable margin of error. Quite simply, one of them has to be very wrong. And Shiller doesn't work for a corporate constituency

Actually, he and Chip do work for a corporate constituency. The company is called Macro Markets and they promote trading on this index on the CME.

That does not mean that the data is faulty. Nor, for that matter, is NAR's data faulty. Both are fairly correct and both have been tested. What you have here are divergent interpretations- NAR obviously taking an optimistic view for its constituency and Shiller taking the view that market are going to implode in order to spur trading in those futures contracts (whose volume, incidentally is not all that high and if it does not increase, the index may well be cancelled as a trading base).

So, tell me George, are you willing to have us raise taxes or would you prefer for us to increase user fees?

Brad
 
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