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Need a response.

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REM sleep

Thread Starter
Sophomore Member
Joined
Oct 23, 2007
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
I am moving out to AZ this summer. I currently own an appraisal company that does work on Long Island and New York City and am in the process of selling the company. One of my guys wants to take the next step and I want to take a giant step out to AZ. My wife and I love it out there!!! we had the appraisal business for a dozen years, did really well, and want to move on.....

One of my former trainees is a review appraiser for Landsafe and he's has been keeping me apprised of the "minor" down cycle the appraisal business is going through. I know it's tough out there, but Is work that slow and is there any end in site????

I would like to move out there and do some appraisal work. Even part time at the beginning. As a newcomer to the area - is it going to be difficult to find work and what unusual challenges am I going to face? Also, is it imperative to bring clients to the table when I walked through the door????

I'm in the process of solidifying my reciprocity to get my certification in AZ.

I am looking for some good direction. Thanks for any help you can provide.

david

ps Please don't tell me to stay in New York....I am coming regardless!!:icon_mrgreen:
 

Liz Mura

Member
Joined
Oct 20, 2004
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Arizona
Hi David! After appraising for 10 years in Rochester, NY, I left in 1995 and moved out here. All was honky dorey until 2 years ago when the bottom fell out. To say it is a "minor" down cycle is looking at the market with blinders on. Landsafe still gets a lion's share of the market and perhaps, that's why your friend doesn't see what most independents see. I usually do 300-350 appraisal a year, but in 2006 I only had 47+/- and in 2007, I had a whopping 21. This after hitting the pavement to stop at every bank, credit union, mortgage company I could find. Many, many of them had already closed their doors and gone out of business. I'm sure there will be some who say they are swamped; perhaps they have many attorneys or other sources as Clients. I just know all the Independent appraisers I have spoken to have experienced the same thing as me. I suppose if you can and want to get on an AMC's list, you could still get work. I don't do any of their work and perhaps that's why I'm so slow these days. Anyway, I don't mean to be a wet blanket, just telling you I've never seen a market THIS bad. My son is trying to sell his condo, nicest low cost housing in Mesa, in a nice neighborhood. We listed it below the lowest sale and lowest listing and he hasn't been able to even give it away in 6 months. Not even a lowball offer. Foreclosures EVERYWHERE. Hard to find comps that are NOT foreclosures, distressed sales, etc. Well, if you move to Phoenix, at least you might buy a house and help our market.:leeann2: PM me if I can help with more info.
 

Ultraviolet

Senior Member
Joined
Dec 31, 2002
Professional Status
Retired Appraiser
State
Arizona
The market is better in Southern AZ than in Phoenix, but there are still too many appraisers chasing too few assignments. The atmosphere here is more "small town" and most good clients have old time appraisers they've worked with for years.

Last spring I had a staff job dropped into my lap and seeing what was coming, I couldn't pass it up. Although not without its headaches, I'm glad I did or I would be struggling for business now. Even we have been extremely slow the last two months, which isn't necessarily atypical for the holiday season.

Large, established fee shops have scaled down and even the mills are nervous (I talked with an owner of one this week). The shop owner was informed by a big time local client that if "declining" or "over supply" boxes were checked they'd be forced to look for a new appraiser. Number hitters are around every corner, so no problem, really. :Eyecrazy:

BUT market activity is slowly picking up and we haven't been hit with near the number of foreclosures that Phoenix has. Prices are not declining in every area, in fact, in many they are stable.

Now, please move to Phoenix! We only have one freeway and it's waayyyy too crowded! :laugh:
 

REM sleep

Thread Starter
Sophomore Member
Joined
Oct 23, 2007
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
Thanks for the info. Everyone that has replied has been very helpful. I will check back from time to time to get a feel for the market. Thanks again, I'll see about Phoenix. Besides, I'm used to traffic - The Long Island Expressway is the world's largest parking lot. Have a Happy New Year!!

David A.
 

Karl

Elite Member
Joined
Jan 15, 2002
Professional Status
Licensed Appraiser
State
Arizona
Pinal County AZ has such an oversupply that they are holding back Foreclosure listings One agent has 220 listings & he has turned down Listing another 200, cause Banks haven't caught on yet cause YES there are those that do NOT mark declining & oversupply *& one of those is a Certified with several years experience.


I use to deliver in Long Island, In abn 18 Wheeler & I feel your pain But surprisingly, your not going to want to believe me but the traffic out here is worse cause they'll shoot at you out here. & they can flip a vehicle upside down in the center lane during the Five OClock rush hour I have NO idea how they do that. & they have NO problem just shutting a road down for three four hours at a time. Pack survival gear out here.
 
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Lee in L.A.

Elite Member
Joined
Jan 24, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
California
UltraV, glad to hear the W thing is working for you.
We're hanging in there, and pretty busy.

I just spent a week visiting family in Cochise county, SE corner of the state. If that's not BF Arizona I don't know what is. And time visiting in the SE burbs of Phoenix. Stayed at the San Marcos Resort in Chandler. Spiffy! :)

I used the 220 loop Fwy on Friday night at about 6 PM and again later. Being used to traffic hell in L.A. I asked if I should take surface streets instead of Fwy for the 12 or 14 mile ride to Gilbert. Stupid question, traffic was jamming about 80 per. :rof:

I like AZ. Superstition mountains, cool. In the winter at least, I don't want to deal with those 120+ summers. :Eyecrazy:

Back to the point, there were numerous for sale signs. Sounds like numerous appraisers and other RE folk are dying on the vine. :sad:
 

Sheikh Yerbouti

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 15, 2002
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Arizona
Lee, if you think the 202 moved pretty good when you were on it, go on YouTube and look for the video of the idiot that claims he did the same stretch at 219 mph in his Lamborghini. The highway patrol IS looking for him and will find him.
 

Jo Ann Meyer Stratton

Elite Member
Joined
Jan 16, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Arizona
What part of Cochise County? I am located about 25 miles north of the county line between Cochise and Graham. Did you drive through Texas Canyon--that has some unique formations.
 

Ultraviolet

Senior Member
Joined
Dec 31, 2002
Professional Status
Retired Appraiser
State
Arizona
Lee,

I am hanging in there. It was extremely slow in December but has picked up with nasty, nasty assignments in January. Non-conforming house with guest house; worthless acreage with rapidly depreciating improvements in a sweet area; six year old house surrounded by industrial across from a gas station and only one tract cookie cutter - in a declining market area ... :new_all_coholic:

Glad you enjoyed your visit to AZ! I worked in Cochise County for 8 years until the driving finally took its toll. I held on to Santa Cruz until I took the staff job, and was promised that I would be reviewing there, which never happened... :huh:

It is never 120 degrees in Southern AZ - only in the hole they call Phoenix ... :laugh: On a really hot day it's 110 here which is remedied by simply going indoors! Of course, my effective age is above my actual because of the brutal sun and no humidity ... :icon_mrgreen:
 

xmmcsmielr

Junior Member
Joined
Feb 4, 2002
Check The "right" Boxes? Still?

It's time to get militant with mortgage companies who insist that appraisers continue to lie. Any company who continues to insist along these lines should be subject to exposure. Addresses of the houses involved should be forwarded to Pam Crowley's list.

Any appraiser who checks "stable" and "in balance", when appraising a house in Tucson, is probably going to be explaining why s/he did that to an enforcement authority.

With the imminent abolition of the Arizona Board of Appraisal (thank our lucky stars) and USPAP enforcement being merged into the Arizona Real Estate Dept, I predict an intensification of enforcement, if the present Board's executive director is replaced with someone dedicated to enforcing USPAP in a just and effective manner.

Combined with risk management centers' ratcheting up scrutiny of Arizona appraisal reports, appraisers who continue to lie about market conditions, and therefore about values, are more likely to be sanctioned for those lies than at any time in the past ten years.

This is one good thing to come out of a bad market.

Moving to Arizona with the expectation of doing any volume of appraisal work, I would reconsider that. If moving to Arizona is the priority, then another line of work probably would produce better income.

Arizona has one of the highest crime rates in the U.S. It has one of the lowest public education spending rates per student. Arizona politics are dominated by some very conservative people, including one bible thumper in the state legislature that introduced a bill saying that using a religious defense would be okay in court. The real estate corruption in Arizona is rampant.

On the other hand, Arizona's scenic wonders are a feast of eye candy that not many places in the world can duplicate. Just the Grand Canyon is stupendous. Then, add places like Canyon de Chelly, Monument Valley, Lake Powell, Havasuapai Canyon, Kofa Mtns, Cochise Stronghold, Chiricahua Monument, etcetera, etcetera, and you have more wonderful places to see than anyone really can in a lifetime of trekking through about.

I've lived in Tucson since I was 12 years old, and I'm 61 years old now. There is no other place in the world that I can think of where I would rather call home than the Old Pueblo (Tucson).
 
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