• Welcome to AppraisersForum.com, the premier online  community for the discussion of real estate appraisal. Register a free account to be able to post and unlock additional forums and features.

Next Meltdown

Status
Not open for further replies.

Eli

Elite Member
Joined
May 12, 2007
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Tennessee
Do you think there will be another meltdown?

I think we have crossed the river. Lol
 

Terrel L. Shields

Elite Member
Gold Supporting Member
Joined
May 2, 2002
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Arkansas
Not so much, but the ten years of artificial FED-driven rates will take a lot of adjustments and equilibrium may take another decade.
 
  • Like
Reactions: A K

J Grant

Elite Member
Joined
Dec 9, 2003
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Florida
Trillions more being added to deficit in budget /forecasts, rollbacks of financial market regulations and consumer protection, a trajectory of isolating America from the rest of the world and putting it behind the shift to alt energy, a volatile stock market , rising interest rates and home price's recent acceleration; what could possibly go wrong?

It may not take the form of the overnight prior crash that lasted only a few years with an ability to recover , but rather a decade or longer of a morass in every sector including housing.
 
Last edited:

jay trotta

Elite Member
Joined
Feb 8, 2004
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Connecticut
Saturn won't align with Mars and Pluto has become an outcast, 2028 ( originally projected 20 years) but everything has become so convoluted over the past couple of years, the outside stretch may need another 10-15 years.

The debt will never get paid off, the politicians could care less and your Taxes are most definitely gong to rise; any cost of Living Raise will be countered by rising costs elsewhere, therefore, the people will never catch up or get ahead. There is no such thing as a budget, where politicians are involved......they Live off Your income
 

Terrel L. Shields

Elite Member
Gold Supporting Member
Joined
May 2, 2002
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Arkansas
putting it behind the shift to alt energy
In 10-15 years numerous EU countries shift to mandatory E cars. That will drive auto sales down, Electricity cost up (Germany is already 2-3 times our cost), and in the process, just to survive, Germany is using coal, wood chips, & borrowing nuke energy from France, hydroelectricity from Sweden. Actually Germany is using more coal than ever, and a high probability climate is colder not hotter temps as solar minimums approach.
 

Meandering

Elite Member
Joined
Feb 26, 2006
Professional Status
Real Estate Agent or Broker
State
Pennsylvania
Almost every other radio commercial here, has been to attend "free" classes in how to be house flippers and real estate investors. How wonderful life will be when you learn to spend other people's money and live off the income from your rental properties.

Yup, it's on the way.

Interesting side note here.
All our bars/taverns/night clubs have been disappearing along with mom and pop restaurants.

You guys seeing the same thing?

.
 

chad hampton

Senior Member
Joined
Nov 10, 2006
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
North Carolina
This country has averaged a major meltdown every 10 +/- years since we moved heavy to supply side econ policies in the late 70's. late 70's, late 80's, late 90's, late 00's. History would tell you we're ready for another.
 

Michigander

Senior Member
Joined
Oct 23, 2003
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Michigan
HGTV flipping shows were prevalent before the Great Recession.
They are again

Many inexperienced people bought rental property before the GR.
They are again

Many buyers put little or no money down on their purchases before the GR
They are again.

Anyone who could fog a mirror before the GR could buy a house.
This is under much better control now.

Investment property tends to be more risky, in that borrowers are less likely to let a personal residence default than an investment. Rents have risen in many places, making ownership attractive to those who have that option. Increased rents good for landlords as long as there are tenants to fill any vacancies. I have concerns about what will happen with investment properties owned by inexperienced investors without adequate reserves for vacancies, losses and repairs.

Borrowing with little money down concerns me, in that there are often no reserves for normal housing expenses let alone unexpected repairs. With increasing prices, many buyers have less cushion on down payment and PMI can be quite costly.

In my market, we have exuberance. Not sure if it is rational or irrational, but as a risk person, it sure makes me uncomfortable, and I have thought our prices have been too high for at least two years now, but they keep going higher where I am.

There are signs of some pre GR era behaviors, but some checks and balances as well. As long as we have an inventory shortage, we are likely okay. If and when the inventory shortage corrects, we could have a huge problem. So many reasons for the shortage, but remember how concerned we were that low interest rates would lead to just this scenario? Might take a die-off to correct it.

Anyway, my before coffee take...
 

Restrain

Elite Member
Joined
Jan 22, 2002
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Florida
Where will there be a melt-down? The biggest cities. San Francisco, New York, etc all are experiencing an outflow of population. West-coast cities housing costs are not supportable by incomes, even San Francisco area. If income vs housing costs and accompanying regulations hit that critical level, outflow will occur creating a housing price decline, especially affecting housing that is highly leveraged, which is common in high-cost cities.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Find a Real Estate Appraiser - Enter Zip Code

Copyright © 2000-, AppraisersForum.com, All Rights Reserved
AppraisersForum.com is proudly hosted by the folks at
AppraiserSites.com
Top

AdBlock Detected

We get it, advertisements are annoying!

Sure, ad-blocking software does a great job at blocking ads, but it also blocks useful features of our website. For the best site experience please disable your AdBlocker.

I've Disabled AdBlock
No Thanks