Poll - How Likely Are You To Retire Before Implementation Of The Uad 3.6 Abomination?

[gregb]

I think there will be other lenders operating outside of the GSE pipelines that will stick to the legacy forms and their derivatives. Out of convenience and expedience.

Not only convenience and expedience. Several direct lenders want the MHAR (manufactured home in a park) and the 71A multi-family forms that are not UAD.

 

[George Hatch]

I think the usage of the older forms will be more common that people assume and will continue indefinitely. I don't see how any of the users except for the GSEs will have the means to either access or use any of the additional data. If they have no use for the data then the older forms will still be easier for them to handle and use. IMO

 

[Alsie35]

Abomination currently losing 56.4% - 43.6%

Keep voting, AF!!

(You know what the BEST thing is about 'The 3.6 Abomination'? Not having to do it. 14 weeks left til retirement!!! )

 

[Alsie35]

6 Months into the Poll ... and the Abomination is not only 6 months behind the 'set-in-stone' implementation timeline* ( ), but is also currently LOSING this poll by 57.0% - 43.0%

*The probable validity of my "Abomination 6-month Timeline Delay" conjecture was confirmed to me today by someone working in tech on the inside of the company that owns all the platforms. He was worried about his own future. "I've seen the boulder (the 3.6 Abomination") rolling downhill" was his statement. No delay, huh? Suck on that Coyote!

In other news - I have several personal victories to report on the "Abomination Front" today:

De-platformed five SCUM* AMCs and one ENTIRE Platform today .... just trying to be proactive with retirement looming ... emails offering garbage two counties over, coming from "the usual suspects" are getting really tiring and interrupt workflow ...

*If you have to ask ....

 

[Alsie35]

Abomination currently going down in flames - 57.8% - 42.2%.

Which bring to mind a question:

What level of appraiser attrition due to "The 3.6 Abomination" would have catastrophic consequences for the real estate mortgage market?

Well, the truth is - NO ONE (least of all the GSEs) really knows at this point. The GSE reps (as we have seen on other threads) are currently in denial about both this, ugly, possibility, AND are simultaneously minimizing like he** the % of likely appraiser attrition.

So - how to properly calculate appraiser attrition due to the "3.6 Abomination"? My thoughts are as follows:

1. Measure the total number of appraisers retiring/leaving the business starting in 2026 ("The Year of Implementation"**) THROUGH 1 YEAR AFTER "Full Implementation" - whenever that is;

2. Add to total active appraiser numbers the new accessions into the business over the same time period;

3. Divide #1 into #2 and *voila* - you have your TRUE "Abomination" attrition rate %.

What will that be? Well, here are my thoughts. Up to 50+% of the experienced appraisers (who make up the majority of appraisers nation-wide) are likely to leave the business over this time frame - if this poll is any guide.

IF that happens then the overall attrition rate is likely to be somewhere between 30-45% in my view. What level would have catastrophic consequences partly depends on the market. The WORST scenario for the GSEs:

40%+ of appraisers leave; A year later we have a BOOM. (I'll keep the popcorn handy).

** History Trivia: North Korean Dictator Kim-Il-Sung declared that 1994 was to be "The Year of Unification" (of the Koreas). He died in 1994. As for "Unification" - we're still waiting. Might be a lesson in there for our GSE members.

 

[Alsie35]

Current Score: Retirement is Annihilating the "UAD 3.6 Abomination":

59.8% - 40.2% (!)