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PREDICTION: Appraising recovers by 2009

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Squareitup

Thread Starter
Member
Joined
Aug 9, 2007
Professional Status
IT Professional-Appraisal Related
State
District of Columbia
PREDICTION: the FBI spends a couple years prosecuting the corrupt AMC/lender crowd with such open vigor that many AMC and lender reputations and businesses are severely thrashed. The process also reveals the high level of incompetence of AVMs. Buyouts, mergers, collapses and splits occur. The story hits news services daily across the country. Throw in some AMC/lender ruined marriages and a few suicides just to keep it real.

Appraising as a profession makes a major recovery as a result of the appraising/lending business having its dirty laundry flown in public for 1 to 2 years solid. Systemic adjustments follow quickly. Legislation and processes adjusted. Full interior appraisal reports become required. Out with AVM's, 2055s, their unquestioned faulty data sources and unprofessional processes, appraiser pressuring and home owner vulnerability. Home buyer "consumer" support groups become much more energized and empowered. Their lobbyists and watchdogs are everywhere.

Appraiser independence from AMCs increases. Appraiser training and support boosted. Appraiser job market, annual income and job security greatly improve.

It's beautiful. It's happening.

Agree?
 

Vernon Martin

Senior Member
Joined
Jun 8, 2005
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
California
PREDICTION: the FBI spends a couple years prosecuting the corrupt AMC/lender crowd with such open vigor that many AMC and lender reputations and businesses are severely thrashed. The process also reveals the high level of incompetence of AVMs. Buyouts, mergers, collapses and splits occur. The story hits news services daily across the country. Throw in some AMC/lender ruined marriages and a few suicides just to keep it real.

Appraising as a profession makes a major recovery as a result of the appraising/lending business having its dirty laundry flown in public for 1 to 2 years solid. Systemic adjustments follow quickly. Legislation and processes adjusted. Full interior appraisal reports become required. Out with AVM's, 2055s, their unquestioned faulty data sources and unprofessional processes, appraiser pressuring and home owner vulnerability. Home buyer "consumer" support groups become much more energized and empowered. Their lobbyists and watchdogs are everywhere.

Appraiser independence from AMCs increases. Appraiser training and support boosted. Appraiser job market, annual income and job security greatly improve.

It's beautiful. It's happening.

Agree?

To a limited extent. I'm more curious about your background, considering that your profile states you are an IT professional in the DC area. Do you work for Fannie or Freddie? Can you confirm or deny if AVMs are really being used in lieu of appraisals for home loans?

VM
 

Joe Booth

Junior Member
Joined
Oct 16, 2003
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
California
That is what I keep telling myself. Heard on the news last night that the FBI was getting involved. High Five!! I hope some LO's and thier Skippy partners go DOWN. I turned down a great deal of business these last few years just because I would not bow to LO pressure and have no sympathy for those who knowingly escalated values.
 

hovious

Sophomore Member
Joined
Mar 14, 2007
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Illinois
I've been saying that the appraisal profession (yes, I still consider it a profession because I have been in this for over 20 years) will rebound and rebound BIG. What goes around comes around. The way things were done 15 to 20 years ago will come back full circle. NEVER, in this history of this country, are our services more needed than right now! The powers that be will, eventually, realize that. The lenders dictated this industry for too long. We will make it people!
 

David Wimpelberg

Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
Joined
Mar 30, 2005
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
New York
Dream on!!

:)

I agree.

I think there will be a return to quality in residential lending over the next few years...that will be due to the feds watching lenders, and investors demanding it.

But I think appraisers thinking that appraisal volume returning to the days of yore are way too optimistic. A significant amount of work was created by market conditions that do not, and will not exist again, for a long, long time.

I spoke to a big-time RE investor today; I'd be happy to live in his poolhouse. His opinion was that people thinking the market will recover in 2-3 years are nuts. He thinks that it will be much longer and much more severe than what happened in the late 1980's....Parallels my thoughts exactly.
 

hovious

Sophomore Member
Joined
Mar 14, 2007
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Illinois
Dream on!!


Are you aware that Fannie and Freddie no longer accept AVM's for HELOC's? Also, according to many of my clients the "business as usual" model of collateral valuation (that was SO dominant in the late 90's up to 2007) are being thrown out the window. EVERYTHING now is a full appraisal via a certified appraiser with a minimum of 5 years experience. To me, that indicates that things are/will be changing for the better.

You are, obviously, entitled to your own opinion but there are some good things happening in our industry. It just takes time.
 

hovious

Sophomore Member
Joined
Mar 14, 2007
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Illinois
:)

I agree.

I think there will be a return to quality in residential lending over the next few years...that will be due to the feds watching lenders, and investors demanding it.

But I think appraisers thinking that appraisal volume returning to the days of yore are way too optimistic. A significant amount of work was created by market conditions that do not, and will not exist again, for a long, long time.

I spoke to a big-time RE investor today; I'd be happy to live in his poolhouse. His opinion was that people thinking the market will recover in 2-3 years are nuts. He thinks that it will be much longer and much more severe than what happened in the late 1980's....Parallels my thoughts exactly.

Your comments Dave, in my opinion, are 100% accurate. My opinion in stating that residential appraising will rebound was not based upon an increase in volume but rather on the overall nature of the residential lending markets. I would not want the volume of work that I received in the early 1990's! Yeah, made a good buck and was able to sock alot of it away but having those 4 to 6 week turn times were awfully nice!
 

Non Sequitur

Elite Member
Supporting Member
Joined
Feb 14, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Louisiana
Are you aware that Fannie and Freddie no longer accept AVM's for HELOC's?
Considering the HELOC market is deader than sub-prime, how does that help?
 

Lost Cause

Senior Member
Joined
Sep 17, 2004
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
New York
An Old Saying:

The more things change, the more they stay the same.
 
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