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Pumping Air in a Bursting Bubble

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Don Clark

Thread Starter
Elite Member
Joined
Jan 17, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Virginia
On the evening news:

260,000 homeowners in bankruptcy
2.5 million homeowners over 30 days late with their mortgage payments

5.9% long term fixed rate financing available, lowest since 1971

Anyone want to guess if the bubble will burst or just deflate?

My guess, it will burst in 2003 or 2004

Get your check books ready for another bailout.

Don Clark, IFA
 
Joined
Jan 13, 2002
Professional Status
Retired Appraiser
State
Florida
OK, I'll guess.

Mid 2003 - maybe even early 2003 after the new Fannie Mae tighter guidelines go into effect.
 

Terrel L. Shields

Elite Member
Gold Supporting Member
Joined
May 2, 2002
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Arkansas
And when the blame game begins, appraisers will be front line fodder
 

Karl

Elite Member
Joined
Jan 15, 2002
Professional Status
Licensed Appraiser
State
Arizona
This is coming soon to many regions of the country. Nope don't think it's gonna be the Appraisers so much this time. Think gonnnna see lawyer's get involved & go after DEEPER POCKETS. Seeing many cases starting the ground work where people can't afford the homes they've bought. Lawyer's are looking at statements made by SELLER'S, RE Agents Loan Officer's ETC. KB Homes is a big one thats getting into the FRYING PAN here in AZ. Just the very beginning stages @ this time but once 1 or 2 cases get results HOLD ON.
 

Roger

Junior Member
Joined
Jan 24, 2002
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Missouri
Seems to me that at least a part of the bubble is from the number hitters that find ways to grossly inflate values for the huge refinance boom, and, at least in my market to a lesser degree, illegal flips.

I would guess that we will all be painted by the same broad brush, and as a profession we will all look bad.

However, on the bright side, if it somehow leads to the removal of lender pressure to make a predetermined value, it will be for the good.

If and when the bubble bursts, we can all point to the Appraiser's Petition, and say "I told you so!".

The Petition will get a lot more publicity (or at least it should) if and when the bubble finally pops.
 

Restrain

Elite Member
Joined
Jan 22, 2002
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Florida
I am surprised that some buyer that purchased a home from a builder towards the end of 2001, then watched the builder cut his prices by $20-$40K after the closing hasn't gotten a lawyer. That should be an easy one for an attorney looking for quick bucks.
 

Tim Hicks (Texas)

Elite Member
Joined
Jan 15, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Texas
If you want to realy be depressed, look at how many appraisals you are doing for sales. Right now, 90% of my business is refi. Take away 90% of that 90% and that should give you an idea what our business will be like if the refi market dries up. I used to have a 50-50 split, or even 70-30 sales, but the RE sales market has slowed dramatically. I figure it must for everybody, because available sales for the refi market has shrunk dramatically and continues to shrink. I hope everybody is saving their extra income for a rainy day, because I see clouds on the horizon.
 

Dee Dee

Elite Member
Joined
Jan 16, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Colorado
Extra income??? 8O What is that???
 

xmrdfghap

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 15, 2002
Professional Status
General Public
State
Florida
I hope everybody is saving their extra income for a rainy day, because I see clouds on the horizon.

<span style='color:brown'>Actually, I see an opportunity for the honest appraiser. You have to do two things.......get your comps and sales data for the past 5 years in order so you can access it easily, and second, take some classes in litigation appraising and expert witnessing. There will be lots of business testifying about the "bad" appraisals.</span>
 

jtrotta

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 16, 2002
Good pasture;

"There will be lots of business testifying about the "bad" appraisals"

I would be interested to see the expansion of the process to include; how the people got qualified to obtain the loan in te first place :? This may be a period in which the "appraisal" may not, in some instances be the culprit 8O The basic reason for my interest, how many folks now own homes, that had their credit ruined in the last go round :?: and how did they qualify :?:

Should be a very interesting next few years. As I said once before, when the DOW hits 5000 we can start all over again in the real life game of monopoly - it's getting closer by the week :wink:

8)
 
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