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Real Estate News: Housing Decline

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Steve Owen

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Jan 16, 2002
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Certified General Appraiser
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Missouri
http://www.realtormag.com/RMODaily.nsf/All/C76525D6B

I have thought for awhile that the upper end was slipping a little. However, a lot of our highest value homes here are doctor's or related to medical profession, so they are a little bit more insulated from the general economy. I haven't seen any repos in the high end market yet.

What do others around the country think of their ideas on appreciation? I thought it was not well explained that appreciation rates vary widely by area. I don't think that a nationwide rate (if that was what they were saying) is useful for the most part.
 

Farm Gal

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Jan 14, 2002
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Licensed Appraiser
State
Nebraska
Despite several recent articles trumpeting "Houseing is up, up, up" and citing a "5 year steady value increase" (stories had elements of veracity) but were based more on the huge DIP in the quarter(s) preceding the 'study' (dome by a leading realtor no less :roll: )

Tuesday's paper cites the (obvious to me) fact that the very high end homes are moving very slowly and that there is an extimated 2 years supply currently vacant and sitting... And it is getting to be appriaser beware, as the homes fall off the listings though the few players at that end of the sales market know they are there (DUH). There is a growing realization that if left listed the market stigma may be too much to overcome. :roll:

Most folks in the 'very high end' prefer to build to suit rather than take on someone else dirt and decor.

OF course in this local market very high end housing means 'homes over $400,000' 8O I know you coastal folks are shocked beyond belief. :lol:
 

Dee Dee

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Jan 16, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Colorado
Steve,
I think that the author forgot to address a theory that most economists seem to agree on.
That is, if the wealthy stop spending money in any given market it usually is a fairly accurate indicator that those in lower income brackets are going to see problems as well, if they haven't already.
The only exceptions that I've observed are when wealthy are generating income that is not dependant on the local economy.
 

wyecoyote

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Jan 15, 2002
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Gvmt Agency, FNMA, HUD, VA etc.
State
Washington
Around here the uper end slipped in some areas tremedously (down to 1999/2000 sales prices) but these areas were involved with the Tech Sector of houses. The lower end didn't slip backward yet and have seen it go up some in areas (not tremendously). I think that the housing is not a nation wide phenomena but a local area phenomena. It may do badly in some areas but in others it could go great. We have one county in Washington state that is slipping because of high unemployment (double digits) but this does not mean that the entire state is going down.

Ryan
 

Blue1

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Joined
Jan 14, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
California
Well here there are few lower end homes left. There are plenty of buyers but scant inventory. The upper end remains fairly stable due to an influx from higher priced areas. Builders are furiosly trying to keep up......but those new homes have high price tags.
 

Mike Garrett RAA

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Jan 14, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
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Colorado
And today they announce record existing home sales and annual appreciation exceeding 8%...go figure!

Our market has been outstanding. Granted the higher end home move a bit slower but over all it has been great!
 

Lee in L.A.

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Jan 24, 2002
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Certified Residential Appraiser
State
California
Yesterdays LA Times reported 20.9% increase in median SFR prices LA Countywide for October 2002 versus October 2001. Condos 26.5% increase. 8O Some of the high end $1M+ areas are fairly flat or slightly down, but it doesn't look like the freight train is slowing down yet here.

Lee Ann in a lot of these areas, $400k won't get a decent lot ready for the bulldozer to scrape. :oops: :lol:

Those national stats are much too wide to be much use to me in appraising. Even the countywide stats are too wide to be all that much use. Too many sub markets in the county let alone country, with widely ranging prices.
 
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