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Recession?

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Austin

Elite Member
Joined
Jan 16, 2002
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Virginia
How do I know we are in recession? I have an assignment to appraise an 18-hole golf private country club course with modern club house in the middle of city and has been in operation for over 50 years. Couldn't make expenses. The last one I appraised 18 months ago was sucking wind and just getting by. Another was having cash flow/membership problems.
The lower middle class is gone with the wind. It's back to the old bowling alley with the guys from the union hall. Cheers. :fiddle: I alreday have my bowling ball with Dale Earnhart Jrs picture on it.
 

Caligirl

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 27, 2006
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
California
The lower middle class is gone with the wind.

That's been the plan all along. Mindless internationalism paid for by the middle class. The next couple of years will all be about paying the bills coming due, if any of us has any money.
 

Lawrence R.

Senior Member
Joined
Mar 27, 2007
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
South Carolina
Recession? Not so fast.

I thought you needed 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth numbers to qualify as a recession...

So, no--it isn't official. And for God's sake, just because you hear the sky is blue on an internet news site doesn't make it official.

Employment suffers at the hand of inflation...inflation suffers at the hand of monetary policy increasing money supply.

Pay attention to all the economic stimulus packages that promise to raise taxes on people while the value of the money they have goes down.

Pay attention to anyone who wants to lower interest rates to stimulate this economy.

More money in circulation isn't the answer...it isn't the problem.

investors aren't worried about return ON capital...they want return OF capital. Any kind of bailout will send us spinning into chaos. let the chips fall, let the market bring thier money back in when the price is right and we will recover.

The housing market is a large part of our econmy, but not the only part. Other parts are not suffering like we are.
 
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Lawrence R.

Senior Member
Joined
Mar 27, 2007
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
South Carolina
How do I know we are in recession? I have an assignment to appraise an 18-hole golf private country club course with modern club house in the middle of city and has been in operation for over 50 years. Couldn't make expenses. The last one I appraised 18 months ago was sucking wind and just getting by. Another was having cash flow/membership problems.
The lower middle class is gone with the wind. It's back to the old bowling alley with the guys from the union hall. Cheers. :fiddle: I alreday have my bowling ball with Dale Earnhart Jrs picture on it.


Golf courses never make money. How many have you appraised that do? I see OS all day long showing what a bad investment golf courses are. We have had 4 go up for auction or file BK in the past 5 years. Have we been in a 5 year recession.

Look, I agree it is true, when rich people get the sniffles, the middle class gets pneumonia. But golf courses are always on the brink of crisis financially.
 

Howard Klahr

Senior Member
Joined
Oct 4, 2004
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Florida
Larry,

I along with you thought that a recession was defined by two or more consecututive quarters of decline in GDP. However, this is no longer correct, the definition has been changed.

The NBER does not define a recession in terms of two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. Rather, a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.

http://www.nber.org/cycles/

Now this is not to say that I agree with the conclusions of the article posted by Laura, but since the definition has changed it would appear that declairing a recession has now become more subjective.
 

john snyder

Senior Member
Joined
Jul 27, 2002
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Michigan
Dang Austin that has to be a collectable bowling ball. I would have to shelf it for awhile since those return machines keep scuffin up my "blue hammer" every week.

Seriously though, the rest of the country may be headed for the "michigan economic correction" that has been phasing in for oh +/_ 5-10 years.

400,000 manufacturing jobs lost but leveling out and diversification is slowly turning the boat around though agonizingly slow for many middle class.

Hi tech and, I do mean hi tech auto jobs are now much more common with higher education and robotics required.

In the next ten years, 30-60 mpg autos with hydorgen/electric fuel as well and maybe driverless cars on the market in ten years. Think of the number of appraisals you can do with a programmable car toating you around. Well that is if they don't attached a camera to the car to zoom around the property and radio the results to a desk jockey.

Major changes coming up in the tech world.

jbs

jbs
 
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