You might interview a few realtors if there are NO 30 day sales... somebody always knows somebody who HAD to sell for whatever fire sale price made the thing move...
Are you sure there ARE no firesale properties? Sometimes this means you get to do an additional grid, (don't foret to charge accordingly :evil: ) or perform some fancy extraction exercises to estimate dimunition in value for quicksales.
Your goal (impossible though it may be) is to estimate what price the subject would have to be priced at to absolutely get someone to buy it in that 30 day period.... Sometimes this can only be accomplished by describing a property to folks until someone says I'd pay X :roll:
It's tough to do proper extraction in a market with more protracted marketing and exposure times...I would certainly mention heavily that the typical DOM exceeds the clients requested value estimate...
I agree with Lee Ann--perhaps you can locate Realtors in your area specializing in REO properties. If you're in an area similar to the one I'm in you should be able find these individuals with a minimal amount of research in your local MLS.
With the lack of 30 day sales you're left with a subjective estimate based on your experience and discussions with area real estate sources. Disclose that fact in your text addendum.
Thanks for your replies. I am using MLS for may data and there is no sales listed in this subdivision which have sold within 30 days. I will contact some realtors to see if they know of some houses which were not listed. Could I use sheriff sales or use the percentage of the appraised value that most sheriff sales go for?
Since I do a lot of REOs I've started using my old files when a 30 day quick sale value is requested. It also varies with the client. It seems that some only want the 30 day value to fill in a box on one of their forms, while some are quite serious about having a fire sale. I can usually find sales which were truly quick sales. Naturally I might be going back over 12 months or out of the market area, but for those types of requests it far surpasses MLS data and a lot of Real-i-tore puff.......ie. My fave was a call last week about the condition on an REO and this was the agent's answer........."Ohhhhhh yes, 505 Elm......That one was a cream puff and showed really well!"................. Barfo. I believe that one was bank owned and had a hole in the roof and trees in the den.
Probably will make some cringe with this answer. I have had to use my Professional Opinion on things like this. When there is no data (not uncommon in my area) I make an educated guess. If you want a property to sale in 30 days, look at what the normal price is. Then discount that value some percentage. !5%? 20% 30%?
Realtors, if you find one you trust, can be a good source to help form your opinion. See what a couple say it would take to move one in 30 days. Remember you are trained professional, when all else fells use you opinion and just explain what you based it on.
Also like Bobby said, go back in the data and find quick sales and compare them to normal sales. Analyze that data and see if there is pattern. That might give you a percentage adjustment.
I deal with situation quite often here. I can't rely on the realtors for help--the market is too complicated.
Look at inventory....and particularly in the market value range. Here this layering of value is a huge factor. Often this will have to be discounted to the next lower layer, or too a value of the next most inferior area to sell it in 30 days. Inventory is a huge factor.
I don't consider it a guess--I consider it "feeling the value". This "feel" is after full review and analysis of the data available.
In this case, like it or not, it is your professional opinion-provide it.