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Sales Of Existing Homes Rise

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Dee Dee

Elite Member
Joined
Jan 16, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Colorado
Mike Garret inspired me to do a closer analysis on home sales in my market area over the past three months, and the results have me stumped.

September
94 sales, average days on market: 86
Average price: $304,003
Median price:$282,187

October
67 sales, average days on market: 78
Average price: $309,762
Median price:$261,000

November (to date)
38 sales, average days on market: 125
Average price: $351,513
Median price: $247,500


Depending on which figures you want to choose (average price vs. median price) you could build a case in either direction (up or down) as to which way the market is headed.
Assuming our local MLS (Denver metro) isn't way out of whack, what would our forum gang make of this? :?
I've got my own theory, but would like to hear the opinions of others.
 

Steve Owen

Elite Member
Joined
Jan 16, 2002
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Missouri
Dee Dee, the basic problem with your data is that it covers too short a period of time. The market is naturally volatile and extreme caution should be used when looking at any one quarter. That is one of the reasons why appraisers are so much better than AVM's. We have years of experience upon which we can base judgements and opinions. When I look at any one year's data, I always think about how that relates to other years. In my opinion, the market in my area should be considered to be "unsettled" at the current time. Just as your data indicates, there are signs of both cooling and heating.
 

Farm Gal

Elite Member
Joined
Jan 14, 2002
Professional Status
Licensed Appraiser
State
Nebraska
Dee Dee;

How many of those sales are outliers?
IS there a central tendency that can be observed by mapping the sales over time? (multicolor scatter graphs are nice for this... :wink: )

A very few 'extreme sales' at the top or very bottom end can seriously skew central tendencies analyes relying on mean & median with that low a number populationto work with. Personally if there is a strong modal tendency I'd rather look at that segment when making 'sales are Up Down sideways' generalizations

who knows?!?!

We are certainly seeing some interesting things happening on the top and bottom end.

Everyone and their dog is thinking they are a RE mogul and paying way too much for low/mid end fixer-uppers. They may be right over the very long haul but when you pay too much up front best be prepared to hunker down for a long long long time. Specially in THIS market :roll:
 

Dee Dee

Elite Member
Joined
Jan 16, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Colorado

Dee Dee, the basic problem with your data is that it covers too short a period of time. The market is naturally volatile and extreme caution should be used when looking at any one quarter.

Hi Steve,
Apologies that I didn't outline why I was looking only at the most recent months.
Recently there is starting to be stronger differences in opinions between many local appraisers and real estate agents as to which way the market is going and how it has been performing.
It's not difficult to guess that local agents and mortgage brokers are furiously pointing at the significant jump in the 'average' home value, while most of the appraisers are pointing at other market factors and shaking their heads.
Added to the somewhat bizarre market that many of us are experiencing, I have to also need to get a feel for how much, if any, the wildfires this past summer may have influenced my primary work territory. In that respect it makes my overall analysis a bit more complicated than the norm. :roll: :(

Lee Ann,
Since our local MLS is lame at computing mode values, I'm going to sit down and get that analyzed over the next few days when I have some free time....yet another angle to look at the problem. I'm also going to double-check their (MLS) average and median values, just to be sure that they're accurate. I also want to throw out any outliers that might be seriously skewing the numbers, though it doesn't look as if that is a major factor on my initial data searches.
I'd really like to get a serious graphing system started that I can easily refer and add to over time. Relying on personal observations and generalized opinions of 'experts' in the real estate biz simply doesn't cut it with me when the market is so whacky.
 

Mike Garrett RAA

Elite Member
Gold Supporting Member
Joined
Jan 14, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Colorado
Where is the linear regression people on this one?

Dee Dee...Darlin

Your population (sets of data in the survey) is most likely too narrow to draw any safe conclusions, but you hit upon my EXACT POINT. Too many people are swagging the information without proper research! We could build a case either way but I feel our market is still strong, values increasing, and will remain so for some time.

One final thought..."Seasonality of Listings and Sales". Most markets tend to slow somewhat over the winter months.
 
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