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Studying the data

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Bill_FL

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Recently, I ran 3 years worth of sales history from my local MLS. What I am about to type is fictional (because I don't have the data in front of me), but is pretty close to what I had.

Sales from $1 - $119,999

Year Median Median Median Median $PSF
Of Sale Price GLA Yr.Blt Site
2005 $89,950 1299 1955 .25 $65.75
2006 $90,100 1125 1952 .25 $67.30
2007 $90,700 1100 1951 .25 $68.25

Sales from $120,000 to $199,999
2005 $149,950 1630 1986 .50 $85.75
2006 $152,500 1550 1987 .50 $88.30
2007 $153,600 1500 1986 .50 $89.25



Ok, so I broke it down into several price ranges like that. All of the ranges had that same pattern. The number of sales (this was only site built homes) varied by only about 20 sales per year over the 3 years.

This is what I see. I do not see a declining market for single family site built homes. What I see is actually a slight increase. I also looked at DOM, and they have about doubled, and currently, if there are 500 sales a year, there are 500 listings. So, I see a buyers market, bu not declining prices. The median prices increased or remained very stable, however the median home got smaller, so the median price per sf is acutally increasing.

Just looking for input here, is there something I am not seeing in these trends?
 

Tom Woolford

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Bill,


Instead of selecting your data by sales price, try selecting by a GLA/age range.

I think you would get a different result. By selecting price ranges, you are "loading" the analysis
 

Mr Rex

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Costs more per sf to build a smaller house.
 

Lawrence R.

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If I read the post right, you had mentioned that the DOM had increased, but inventory and prices held steady?

I can only guess, but it may be that some sellers have decided to wait it out, and that you may find sales prices have decreased. As Rex said, the smaller houses will skew the c/psft numbers.

If the DOM has doubled, I would guess(only a guess) that if you haven't seen a decline, you are on the verge of it, longer marketing times usually precede a drop in listing prices as realtors and sellers get a reality check.

I would change my filter and let price be a result, and not a qualifier.

Edited to add:

Can you view the number of withdrawn listings year over year? That may reveal something about the market as well.
 

Tudor

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I agree with Mr. Rex, your price per square foot is going up as your square footage goes down.
 

Bill_FL

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I agree that the smaller houses are cost more per sf, but to me, the key is also the median price data.

If over the years you have a median sales price that remains constant, lets say $150,000, but the house that $150,000 buys gets smaller, it would tell me that the median prices are going up. Now, if the median house had gotten larger, then I would say prices are decreasing.

It would be interesting to take the median house in 2005 for a given range, then search homes in that range in 2006 and 2007 and see what their prices were.
 

Mr Rex

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Bill don't forget that over that same time, costs were increasing, so if the median price stayed the same and the houses were getting smaller, it could be argued that the data is indicative in a decrease in value, although negligible, and lost in your statistical data's error factor. Just goes to show how statistical data sets can mean something or nothing, depending on the input and analysis of the data input and output.
 
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Bill_FL

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I just re-ran the data.

The median home price in one market segment, in 2005, was $160,000. IT was a 1500 sf home on .45 acres, built in 2000.

Now, for homes right around that size, site size and age, the median price in 2007 is $168,000.
 

Mr Rex

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Same actual age, or same relative age to when the sales occurred?
 
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