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The Damaclean Sword - When will it fall and Upon Whom?

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Terrel L. Shields

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Elite Member
Gold Supporting Member
Joined
May 2, 2002
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Arkansas
With the sudden turmoil of United System and Day One / Zaio crashing and burning; the numerous AMCs and Banks folding; I am afraid to buy any new programs or tools for fear the company will fold in the next 18 months or so.

I know that that feeling is wide-spread and maybe even wrong-headed. If everyone stops buying it implodes the whole economy.

I have a new GM pickup and now I wonder is Onstar will still be around; if my warranty will be good, will parts get difficult to get? I have a car for sale....good car, 1 looker in 3 weeks. I priced it at low NADA book.

Will Disto survive? Alamode? Bradford? Winsketch? Apex? The list of providers we all use are potentially in financial trouble. How could they not be? Appraisers are under fire, under paid, and cannot continue to buy buy buy software unless we start being compensated for our work at reasonable prices.

No one thinks they will fail. No one would admit it because any hint they are in trouble and the show is over. So we all look around at each other and wonder who is next.

BTW, I spoke with an appraiser today. She told me she is working a second job...washing dishes at the Cherokee Casino. Said, "I do that job and like it because I don't have to THINK about it. I can just do it."...and this lady has RA plus a disabled husband. I know another one who is working 2 days a week for a veternarian and a third with her application in with the new Hotel at the Casino.

Fear has gripped this nation.
 

panappr

Elite Member
Joined
Dec 5, 2007
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
California
Hey Terrel.... I'm seeing allot of the same as far as friends taking 2nd jobs..... Hope we can all look back on this someday from a better perspective.

As far as software concerns, I did receive this today from Dave.

First, for all Day One and United Systems users affected by this calamity, we’re giving you our top of the line “XXXXXXX Enterprise” formfilling system at absolutely no charge whatsoever, permanently. You don’t have to buy anything and it doesn’t “expire”. Download it and start working today.
 
Last edited:

Mztk1

Senior Member
Joined
Dec 3, 2006
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Florida
This, too, shall pass, Terrel. And in this business, it is feast or famine. One day in the not too distant future we'll be so bogged down with work we won't have time for posting.

Here's a list of stores that are supposed to be closing, or have partial closings at least, after the Holidays.

> Circuit City stores... most recent (? how many)
>
> Ann Taylor- 117 stores nationwide are to be shuttered
>
> Lane Bryant,, Fashion Bug ,and Catherine's to close 150 store
> nationwide
>
> Eddie Bauer to close stores 27 stores and more after January
>
> Cache will close all stores
>
> Talbots closing down all stores
>
> J. Jill closing all stores
>
> GAP closing 85 stores
>
> Footlocker closing 140 stores more to close after January Wickes
> Furniture closing down
>
> Levitz closing down remaining stores
>
> Bombay closing remaining stores
>
> Zales closing down 82 stores and 105 after January.
>
> Whitehall closing all stores
>
> Piercing Pagoda closing all stores
>
> Disney closing 98 stores and will close more after January.
>
>
> Home Depot closing 15 stores 1 in NJ (New Brunswick)
>
> Macys to close 9 stores after January
>
> Linens and Things closing all stores
>
> Movie Galley Closing all stores
>
> Pacific Sunware closing stores
>
> Pep Boys Closing 33 stores
>
> Sprint/ Nextel closing 133 stores
>
> JC Penney closing a number of stores after January
>
> Ethan Allen closing down 12 stores.
>
> Wilson Leather closing down all stores
>
> Sharper Image closing down all stores
>
> K B Toys closing 356 stores
>
> Loews to close down some stores
>
> Dillard's to close some stores.
 

Greg Bell

Senior Member
Joined
Jul 7, 2006
Professional Status
Gvmt Agency, FNMA, HUD, VA etc.
State
Louisiana
This, too, shall pass, Terrel. And in this business, it is feast or famine. One day in the not too distant future we'll be so bogged down with work we won't have time for posting.

Here's a list of stores that are supposed to be closing, or have partial closings at least, after the Holidays.
I agree this too shall pass , however I'm afraid "Not too distant future" does not apply to this sudden and brutal worldwide economic crash.This recession/depression has at least a decade written all over it with the possibility of exceeding that unless a worldwide war will come to the rescue(See FDR).Buy the way , just where is the cutoff point between recession and depression???Maybe it's 25% unemployment..........:fiddle:
 

Lawrence R.

Senior Member
Joined
Mar 27, 2007
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
South Carolina
With the sudden turmoil of United System and Day One / Zaio crashing and burning; the numerous AMCs and Banks folding; I am afraid to buy any new programs or tools for fear the company will fold in the next 18 months or so.

I know that that feeling is wide-spread and maybe even wrong-headed. If everyone stops buying it implodes the whole economy.

I have a new GM pickup and now I wonder is Onstar will still be around; if my warranty will be good, will parts get difficult to get? I have a car for sale....good car, 1 looker in 3 weeks. I priced it at low NADA book.

Will Disto survive? Alamode? Bradford? Winsketch? Apex? The list of providers we all use are potentially in financial trouble. How could they not be? Appraisers are under fire, under paid, and cannot continue to buy buy buy software unless we start being compensated for our work at reasonable prices.

No one thinks they will fail. No one would admit it because any hint they are in trouble and the show is over. So we all look around at each other and wonder who is next.

BTW, I spoke with an appraiser today. She told me she is working a second job...washing dishes at the Cherokee Casino. Said, "I do that job and like it because I don't have to THINK about it. I can just do it."...and this lady has RA plus a disabled husband. I know another one who is working 2 days a week for a veternarian and a third with her application in with the new Hotel at the Casino.

Fear has gripped this nation.

No, fear has not gripped the nation. It seems like it has gripped you though, and you want to spread it.

Stop acting like it is a fact, when it is your own opinion.

Sure, GM will go out of business and not one single solitary person will go after the 500 zillion dollar after market parts market they leave in their wake.

Stop watching so much TV Terrel.

Given the choice between uninformed and misinformed--at this point, we should probably strive for the former.

PS ZAIO- bad business model. Horrible in fact.

AMCs and banks folding--as a result of the economic problems or at the cause of them?

Onstar--take it from someone from the car business..Onstar was a great idea until people could buy a cellphone and a Garmin. It was doomed already.

Just b/c you can't sell your car does not a depression make.

Buck up, things will be bad, but money will still be able to buy things, and you will still have some of it when the time comes.
 

Greg Bell

Senior Member
Joined
Jul 7, 2006
Professional Status
Gvmt Agency, FNMA, HUD, VA etc.
State
Louisiana
Well I see the Pollyanna syndrome is still in full force. (See Avatar)The deflation in the world economy CANNOT stand without a complete capitulation and reorganization of the world debt and currency...If it ain't doomsday it's pretty damn close...Please buy some Beans and Ammo...Don't let me say I told you so , but I did along time ago..
 

The Warrior Monk

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Joined
Mar 30, 2005
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
New York
I don't look at Terrel's post as doom and gloom, simply a reflection of reality. I'm also a realist. Don't get worried or depressed about changing conditions, just adapt to them accordingly.

In my own case, I rarely use credit cards anymore, won't buy warranties, won't buy any item that has the potential of being returned, use my gift cards shortly after I get them, and have cut back spending in general just in case. I also play the volatility in the market...This market is a once in a lifetime event.

There is a Buddhist philosophy that the only thing that is certain is change, which has repeatedly been shown to reflect reality. Current conditions are neither here nor there, just life as normal.
 

Offshore

Senior Member
Joined
Dec 25, 2005
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
North Carolina
Fear has gripped this nation.
It has indeed. For months the media has been telling us we were in a recession and even though the economy was anemic, they grossly exaggerated the facts to enhance the calling for "change" they so dearly wanted in the beltway. Well, they got what they asked for in more ways than one, perception has become reality.
 

Greg Bell

Senior Member
Joined
Jul 7, 2006
Professional Status
Gvmt Agency, FNMA, HUD, VA etc.
State
Louisiana
Well , I agree the current conditions will change which is O.K as long as 1933 was your favorite year.So make provisions accordingly..............
 

Lawrence R.

Senior Member
Joined
Mar 27, 2007
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
South Carolina
Well I see the Pollyanna syndrome is still in full force. (See Avatar)The deflation in the world economy CANNOT stand without a complete capitulation and reorganization of the world debt and currency...If it ain't doomsday it's pretty damn close...Please buy some Beans and Ammo...Don't let me say I told you so , but I did along time ago..


I also see calling people names is still in style too.

I am not at all doubting what is ahead. I am just saying that I will choose to be someone who will look for the opportunities in it all.

There were still PLENTY of people getting rich in down economies, even during the great depression.

I am not about to throw in the towel, that's all.

Edited to add:


Maybe I will open a store that sells beans and ammo, and make a fortune off the naysayers!
 
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