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U.S. Economy: Housing, Prices, Output Point to Some Stagflation

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moh malekpour

Elite Member
Joined
May 25, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
California
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a.kPGzU8jTrE&refer=home
The U.S. economy may be suffering from its first bout of stagflation since the start of this decade, reports on housing, prices and manufacturing indicated.

Builders broke ground on 975,000 homes at an annual pace in May, the least in 17 years, and construction permits fell, the Commerce Department reported in Washington. Meanwhile, the Labor Department said producer prices jumped 1.4 percent, more than economists forecast. A further report from the Federal Reserve showed industrial production unexpectedly dropped 0.2 percent.
Stagflation is very ugly. It is worse than recession and inflation.
In recession, you have reasonable prices of what you need in the market but you don't have money, income or job to buy them.
In inflation, you have plenty of money but prices are so high that your bulk of money cannot buy them.
In stagflation, you have the worst of both. You don't have income, money or work and the price of everything is unreasonably high.
 

aussie ken

Member
Joined
Mar 11, 2005
Professional Status
Retired Appraiser
State
Australia
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a.kPGzU8jTrE&refer=home

Stagflation is very ugly. It is worse than recession and inflation.
In recession, you have reasonable prices of what you need in the market but you don't have money, income or job to buy them.
In inflation, you have plenty of money but prices are so high that your bulk of money cannot buy them.
In stagflation, you have the worst of both. You don't have income, money or work and the price of everything is unreasonably high.

Lets just cut our throats now and get it over with !!!
 

Greg Bell

Senior Member
Joined
Jul 7, 2006
Professional Status
Gvmt Agency, FNMA, HUD, VA etc.
State
Louisiana
Lets just cut our throats now and get it over with !!!
Well Mate , we didn't cut our throats in the 1930's. 70% of America had a job.This time we may make exception and put up a fence to keep Australians from invading..:rof:
 

Restrain

Elite Member
Joined
Jan 22, 2002
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Florida
Stagflation is what we had under Carter, then first term of Reagan. When they kicked up the rates, they really jumped. Anyone remember 18% home interest rates?
 

Big ole Boy

Elite Member
Joined
Dec 6, 2003
Professional Status
General Public
State
Tennessee
I remember

I was in High School and I made a bet with my best friend that gas would go from 62 cents a gallon to over 1 dollar ......... he said no way ......

.... I also remember that real estate was appreciating during the fast run up in interest rates.

.... This time ..... will real estate prices rise as rates rise?

..... I think not .... 30 years ago we had liquidity ....

.... now we have much larger competiton for capital around the world .....

.... today our oil driven economy infrastruture is a "free market dinasour" .....

.... today we don't have an energy policy to crack hydrogen ....

.... and 580 billion dollars spent on the Iraq war is just a small part of the "opportunity cost"

of government not making a strategic shift into another form of locomotive energy for our

economy .....

... the real stagflation now is rising energy costs and shrinking availablity for that energy .....

.... and further still ....... a new kind of "heavy element" with a density unequaled elsewhere in the universe ......

..... and that substance is ...... "the collective ignorance" .... of human kind ....
 

moh malekpour

Elite Member
Joined
May 25, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
California

Terrel L. Shields

Elite Member
Gold Supporting Member
Joined
May 2, 2002
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Arkansas
Simple. When the pundits say that housing would be a soft landing, they were wrong. When they said that the economy was not nearly so dependent upon oil as they were in the 1970's, they were wrong. When housing prices fell they said there would be no "contagin" in the larger market. They were wrong. When the Fed signaled early that they would take interest rates down as low as necessary to revive the economy, they were wrong. It didn't revive. When they said we wouldn't slip into recession, they were wrong. When they now say we won't have stagflation....well, what else have they been right about?
 
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