U.S. labor market is losing steam

[Fernando]

MSN

The Unofficial Jobs Numbers Are In and It’s Rough Out There​

In the federal data void, Bank of America this week said it is seeing signs of rising unemployment and slowing job growth in its customers’ data. Private-equity company Carlyle Group, extrapolating from companies in which it owns stakes, said Tuesday that it thinks overall U.S. jobs growth slid in September from an already weak official reading in August. Goldman Sachs said its measure of labor-market tightness fell last month back to levels seen in 2015, indicating a tough landscape for job seekers.

These follow a report from payroll processor ADP last week that said U.S. employers shed private-sector jobs last month.

These and other alternative data sources have their drawbacks—they often only cover a small share of the labor force and using them to estimate the state of the broader job market can be tricky. These numbers don’t always match with government data, though the government numbers themselves have seen some steep revisions lately as the BLS struggles with falling response rates to its surveys.

 

[Fernando]

Bank of America parses its customers’ bank and credit card accounts to see who is receiving wages or unemployment benefits to gauge the state of the labor market. The bank found a “further softening” in job growth in September and a 10% rise in unemployment payments in October compared with a year ago, although wages also rose.

WHAT'S SURPRISING OR SHOULD I SAY NOT SURPRISING IS THAT BANK OF AMERICA IS TRACKING NUMBERS FROM WAGES AND UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS.
NO PRIVACY. DATA IS GOLD.

 

[John Hassler]

If the employment numbers for September were positive for Trump they would have been released, government shutdown or not, and you would hear gushing praise by Trump of his economy.

Since the employment numbers have not been released it’s a safe bet they are not good.

 

[Gobears81]

If the employment numbers for September were positive for Trump they would have been released, government shutdown or not, and you would hear gushing praise by Trump of his economy.

Since the employment numbers have not been released it’s a safe bet they are not good.

I've actually wondered the opposite. He has been pushing for a huge fed funds rate cut, so if job numbers are weak, he can say that Powell is too late to cut interest rates.

 

[Joe Flacco]

The jobs situation is pretty bad in my area. Feds are worried. My friend is not a fed and he has been unemployed for more than a year now.

 

[Joe Flacco]

I don't know what is going on in other markets, but with the way things are going DC area might be in a recession in the next 12 months.

 

[John Hassler]

I've actually wondered the opposite. He has been pushing for a huge fed funds rate cut, so if job numbers are weak, he can say that Powell is too late to cut interest rates.

Interesting thought, but too complex a thought for Trump.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Government jobs are being cut. Illegals are fleeing their jobs. The rest of the country not so much.

 

[George Hatch]

AI is going to make a mark on employment independent of anything the govt does. At a minimum, Trump's tariff war is going to make a mark on inflation and probably also on employment. Cutting down any on the free money handouts govt gives is going to cut into spending. Cutting federal payrolls is going to cut into revenues.

There is no "free". If Trump's strategies have an upside it's going to take at least a few years before they show up.

 

[Airstream]

The problem is the labor market has probably been much softer than people thought. The BLS stated that over 1 million supposed jobs created under Biden didn’t exist. And remember most of those “jobs” under Biden were government jobs, which are now being cut. The problem is Powell had interest rates at 4.25 to 4.5 when inflation was at 9%, and the rates haven’t changed much even with inflation cut 66%. So we are still in contractionary mode based upon the FED rate. I know construction has taken a nose dive in much of Wisconsin. And I just read that 20 states (mostly Democrat run) are near or close to recession. But then again it could be due to the Democrat states tax policies, and people can’t relocate to jobs easily due to housing costs. Then there is the AI element. This isn’t happening in the U.S., but in India the call centers are going AI and have eliminated nearly 80% of call center jobs. So clearly we will see some worker displacement. That’s inevitable.