Villa Park

[ZZGAMAZZ]

I did my first assignment ever in Villa Park earlier this week. It's a very interesting and beautiful city only a few miles from commercial Anaheim yet a world of its own.

The primary residential zoning is min lot 20000 sqft and most of the parcels I encountered were mini-estates with older improvements and professional landscaping.

I had an interesting conversation with the City Planner who described the efforts of the city to maintain its aesthetical integrity despite relatively small commercial tax revenues.

 

[Sid Pachter]

Median values in VP for 2008 thru April compared to the same period in 2007, have declined each month. April 08 vs. 07 saw the biggest decrease of 38.8% to $1,037,500. Median sales price in 12/07, $2.5M.

 

[ZZGAMAZZ]

38% !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Guess That Pretty Much Reflects Most Every Neighborhood In Every City...

 

[realbiz]

Villa Park is a very nice city, along with Anaheim Hills and some parts of the city of Orange (both are nearby). The decline in value appears to be rather high for that area. I think Orange county as a whole is around 22-25%. You would have to verify the type of data used (for example 30 sales versus 3, or 5,000sf house vs 3,500sf house). It could make a big difference, although we all know Southern California has been in a declining market for some time.

 

[Sid Pachter]

My source is DataQuick and the most recent stats are thru 4/08. If you compare median prices in 1/08 to 4/08, the decline is 33.1% for VP. Orange county as a whole comparing median values in 4/08 to 4/07, the decline is 20.5%. Comparing OC strictly SFR for 1/08 to 4/08 the meidan price decline is 4.8%.

 

[realbiz]

My point is that you can use DataQuick as a guideline, it can not be used as a whole for each neighborhood. Their information covers an entire zip code, which usually consist of several, if not many different neighborhoods. Just for a basic example. If in October to December of 2007 there were only four sales of higher end properties (2@ $2,000,000 and 2@ $3,000,000) in that zip code. The median price would be $2,500,000. Now from January to March of 2008 there are only four sales in a less expensive area of this zip code (2@ $900,000 and 2@ $1,100,000). The median price would now be $1,000,000 for the end of March. Did the values in this market actually drop 60%? I am not disagreeing that values have declined, because I deal with it daily. I am just saying make sure you define your neighborhood and arrive at the correct declining rate. I see too many appraisers, not making negative adjustments for declining markets, and others with excessive adjustments.

 

[EVAUSA]

realbiz is right. DQNEWS is a nice fluffer comment, but it does not speak for the subject property and subject neighborhood. I quote DQNews in my reports, because I know UW and QC likes to see a source and %, but my actual time adjustment is derived from sales in my report in conjunction with an MLS proximity search for the median price of similar homes during effective date compared to 12 months previous. Sometimes my analysis is the same as DQ, some times it's not.

 

[CANative]

I remember Villa Park mostly because it was at about that point on the 55 freeway (except then I think it was Hwy 22) that you first saw the Matterhorn at Disneyland. We would also nag mom and dad about going there on the way to Gramma and Grampa's house. But we always quickly forgot about it because Gramma and Grampa had a beachfront place at Crystal Cove in Laguna Beach. Whooo hoo!!!!

 

[Abzntminded]

realbiz is right. DQNEWS is a nice fluffer comment, but it does not speak for the subject property and subject neighborhood. I quote DQNews in my reports, because I know UW and QC likes to see a source and %, but my actual time adjustment is derived from sales in my report in conjunction with an MLS proximity search for the median price of similar homes during effective date compared to 12 months previous. Sometimes my analysis is the same as DQ, some times it's not.

I completely agree with this post and also regard DQ as fluff, especially in Orange County. Any source that mines data from the OC assessor's office ends up with numbers that are ridiculously sketchy regarding recent sales of condos and newer SFR's. You have to rely primarily on MLS, and then that gets a little brittle when you're dependant on RE agents to be accurate. It's a joke that the press consistantly interview DQ spokespersons to get a story on what's happening with the market in OC.

 

[Lloyd Bonafide]

Using monthly prices by zip code as reported by DQNews as a barometer of home prices can be very misleading - they report prices for each zip code every month, but the sample sizes can be very small for some zip codes, and price changes are all over the map.

http://www.dqnews.com/Charts/Monthly-Charts/OC-Register-Charts/ZIPOCR.aspx

Newport Beach 92660 $1,020,000 -37.8%
Newport Beach 92661 $2,700,000 38.5%
Newport Beach 92663 $2,325,000 160.7%


Irvine 92603 $795,000 -15.0%
Irvine 92604 $650,000 15.0%
Irvine 92606 $509,000 -27.0%
Irvine 92612 $505,000 -17.2%
Irvine 92614 $685,000 22.3%
Irvine 92618 $538,000 5.5%
Irvine 92620 $618,000 -8.5%


Tustin 92780 $458,000 -28.7%
Tustin 92782 $673,409 12.2%