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Vindication

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Dennis J. Black ASA IFAS

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Senior Member
Joined
Mar 5, 2002
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Florida
I know I am not the only one, but I was calling the top of the market in late 2005 and have the publications to back it up. All through 2007 I traveled the state of Florida speaking to appraisers and agents about "Valuing Real Estate in a Changing Market". Many of you attended. There were always a fairly large number of attendees who felt my methods and predications were out of touch with reality. My own Association would not sponsor the course and I had to rent the room and put it on myself. I was perceived in many circles as a bit of a kook as well as a doom and gloomer.

Well Thursday's Wall Street Journal points out my hometown/market and association is #1 King Poop.

Its Saturday morning and I am drinking my coffee and feeling good. Not feeling good about people being damaged by this turn of events. Feeling good about having been blessed with an education and the training to really understand this stuff.

Maybe CNBC needs a Cramer for real estate?
 

Couch Potato

Elite Member
Joined
Mar 15, 2004
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
North Carolina
I still amazes me that more could not see it coming. I know people who where still in dreamland in early 2006. They were shocked when they could not sell their overpriced property. But even more sad is their false hope in a serge in population bailing them out. People don't move in large numbers to expensive areas unless there are high priced jobs waiting. Retirees don't move there under any circumstances (except when their grandchildren are there.)

Florida is a nice place and as sanity returns to the market, it will balance out. There is plenty of money to be made in Florida real estate, by anyone that can call the bottom. Go for that Dennis, and it ought to warrant at least a guest spot for you on CNBC. :rof:
 

Howard Klahr

Senior Member
Joined
Oct 4, 2004
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Florida
I still say you are "out of touch with reality" and "a bit of a kook", real estate prognostications notwithstanding ... LOL
 

David Wimpelberg

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Staff member
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Joined
Mar 30, 2005
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
New York
I know I am not the only one, but I was calling the top of the market in late 2005 and have the publications to back it up.

You're not the only that saw it coming, and I'm 1,000 miles away. There were reports that in some areas of FL 75% of the newer condo units were investor owned...and they were still building. That's an obvious recipe for disaster. It's fun when everybody buying, but it's likely playing musical chairs with 100 people and one chair...you don't want to be one of the 99 people standing when the music stops.

Another thing I found interesting was that Florida real estate agencies started advertisting in the Home and Land magazine out here in the Hamptons. People have money out in this area, and occassionally there will be some ads for NYC, or overseas, real estate, but FL agents were taken up pages in the middle of the magazine.
 

Dale Smalley

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 15, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Florida
So when can you call the bottom?
 

Tom Woolford

Elite Member
Gold Supporting Member
Joined
Nov 20, 2005
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Florida
So when can you call the bottom?

Like Dennis, I saw this coming, and tried to tell my friends who were buying up all kinds of property to knock it off about mid 2005. None of them listened, and now one is bankrupt, and the other has had to cancel retirement and gone back to work, but may not last much longer. I do a monthly analysis for all major markets as well as countywide numbers, and I have no clue when we are going to pull out of this. Right now countywide we are back to roughly mid 2005 values. My best guess is that it will fall back to about 2002 levels and then stabilize. We have a long way to go.
 

mwbode

Sophomore Member
Joined
Jul 5, 2007
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Florida
Over the past couple of weeks among the brains on CNBC the common notion has been said "don't worry about the ARM resets because most of these properties will be in foreclosure before the reset"
 
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