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What do these numbers tell you?

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Greg davenport

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Joined
Mar 30, 2004
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Arkansas
Looking at all the sales in a small town last year between 1700-2500 sqft.




Sales Average Price DOM Jan 7 159,500 117 Feb 5 167,400 92 Mar 3 172,000 139 Apr 5 164,500 223 May 1 195,500 77 Jun 9 145,000 65 Jul 3 192,000 140 Aug 3 158,000 131 Sep 0 0
Oct 5 160,000 76 Nov 6 179,450 77 Dec 2 167,000 54



Total 49 155,029 99.25
What would you say this market is doing? Both in Values and DOM?
(No sales so for this year.)
2006 numbers are
51 sales 151,000 average price 113 Days on Market.
 

Mztk1

Senior Member
Joined
Dec 3, 2006
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Florida
Looking at all the sales in a small town last year between 1700-2500 sqft.




Sales Average Price DOM Jan 7 159,500 117 Feb 5 167,400 92 Mar 3 172,000 139 Apr 5 164,500 223 May 1 195,500 77 Jun 9 145,000 65 Jul 3 192,000 140 Aug 3 158,000 131 Sep 0 0
Oct 5 160,000 76 Nov 6 179,450 77 Dec 2 167,000 54



Total 49 155,029 99.25
What would you say this market is doing? Both in Values and DOM?
(No sales so for this year.)
2006 numbers are
51 sales 151,000 average price 113 Days on Market.

It tells me four sales a month aren't enough data to show market trends.
 

ROBERT JONES

Junior Member
Joined
Feb 12, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
New Jersey
Neither increasing or decreasing - how about flucuating? A true identifiable/defensible trend could take months or years to accurately formulate. Is a flucuating market a stable market? (I think so). How do these number hold up to the previous 12-24 months?
 

Jill Kinnaird

Junior Member
Joined
Oct 6, 2005
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Ohio
Whenever I prepare statistical analysis I place more emphasis on 'median' sale price than 'average'. Averaging does not account for that million dollar horse farm or group of investor properties sold by the sheriff. Also, analyze like kind property. I'm finding that specific property types and price ranges have completely different absorption rates, sales/list price percentages, DOM, etc... than a general market area. Expireds, withdrawns and canceled listings must be considered as well. Our MLS duplicates addresses in this regard but even then, you know something's up when there's 75 expireds at 145 DOM, 65 withdrawns at 190 DOM and only 30 sales showing 63 DOM. Using excel or a simple word document can assist in gridding monthly, quarterly, bi yearly and yearly stats to analyze trends and will assist your reader in understanding that the 'loss in value' is based on data in their neighborhood and not national trends published in some newspaper or website.
 

hglenbetts

Senior Member
Joined
Dec 3, 2007
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Michigan
I think you'd need to look at previous year and compare month vs month to account for any seasonal fluctuation, especially related to days on market. Also need to be sure you're comparing apples to apples. In my primary market, we see large inceases in sales price "averages" in the spring due to the sales of water influenced properties that tend to sell after the snow melts. :new_xmas:
 

Em Tee

Senior Member
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Jan 14, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
California
I agree with Jill. Averaging can be too easily skewed.
 

Mztk1

Senior Member
Joined
Dec 3, 2006
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Florida
With so few sales, I'd either break them down by quarter or by 1/2 year and go back 2 to 4 years depending on how you do it.

I'd also consider, with such limited data, reporting price per square foot averages and median values on a quarterly or semi-annual basis.

Or perhaps, if you can get more than 25 sales a month by not discriminating on living area, perhaps you can look at the entire town.

I'd also analyze current listings and pendings on a price per square foot basis, comparing that to the sold price per square foot. It isn't perfect, but sometimes it can show market direction.
 

Smokehouse

Junior Member
Joined
May 7, 2003
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Florida
just mark increasing and make the lender happy :)




.......THAT WAS A JOKE !......
 
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