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What is going to happen? It's really bad.

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Wendy

Thread Starter
Senior Member
Joined
Feb 23, 2004
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Florida
My area is really circling the bowl and I'm wondering if everything is going to get flushed.

Looking back at the last 18 months it was like this (generalized for the whole county):

Through 3rd quarter of 2006 the charge was still in full swing. Prices were outrageous. People were still buying any and everything. A hint of fear was in the air, but heaven forbid it was mentioned.

4th quarter of 2006 there was a dip in prices and a virtual stop to sales. Dip was mainly attributed to the fact that the only sellers were either desperate or profit taking.

1st quarter of 2007 - everything just kind of stood still and seemed semi-stable. I, like many others, were hoping that we'd just be able to hold on without any major declines. How naive of me.

2nd quarter of 2007 - Dropped off the cliff. Deltona and Florida Shores led the decent. Lenders were chastising and blacklisting for marking the declining box.

3rd quarter of 2007 - Declines continued. Highly over-valued areas continued to drop with active prices under closed sales of 6 months prior.

4th quarter of 2007 - Rarely is a pocket of stable values found. When found, I still suspect that they are just illusionary due to limited sales. REO and short sales are dominating the market. Lenders do not bat an eye at a report marked declining. Mortgage work is at a stand still.
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What is 2008 going to bring? We are already back to 2005 and some 2004 values. Will we slide all the way back to 2001/2002 values? I surely hope not because the debt load on that "lost" equity will be unbearable.

I fear for our profession. I guarantee 95% us who do residential mortgage work have appraised homes that are or are soon to be REO properties. Will we end up taking the blame for the lax lending that drove this whole bubble?

I would like to hope that this will end up being a cleansing of the system. Lending standards will return to sanity, appraiser pressure will stop and skippy will get run out of town.

Or will the baby get thrown out with the bathwater?
 
Last edited:

nauthead

Senior Member
Joined
Nov 26, 2004
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
Florida
The two main counties where I work are a mixture of stable and declining. The sharpest declines are in the outlying subdivisions where investor speculation was rampant from 2004-2006. The areas closest to the major cities are mostly stable. I have not received any flack from a lender about a declining box.

Asking prices are all over the board and every listing says MOTIVATED SELLER!

Work has been steady but not spectacular. I took the time over the past few months to get my real estate broker license and I may knock out all of my con-ed over the coming months.

My wife works for a real estate attorney who handles a lot of foreclosures, so she has been quite busy.
 

Alison Swain

Senior Member
Joined
Sep 13, 2005
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Florida
At dinner after the FREAB meeting, I posed the question of whether appraisers are going to get the blame. A member of the board stated that it is very clear that poor underwriting was the real problem.

Let's hope investigators are as reasonable and not easily influenced by big lender $$.
 
Joined
Jan 13, 2002
Professional Status
Retired Appraiser
State
Florida
Many (most?) competent and honest underwriters have been treated the same as the competent and honest appraisers... "You're Fired!!!"
 

Couch Potato

Elite Member
Joined
Mar 15, 2004
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
North Carolina
Joke?

At dinner after the FREAB meeting, I posed the question of whether appraisers are going to get the blame. A member of the board stated that it is very clear that poor underwriting was the real problem.

Let's hope investigators are as reasonable and not easily influenced by big lender $$.
Read what you wrote. Pause. Now appraise the odds of it working out that way based on the evidence of past actions of the people involved. How much support for the opinion could you garner from history?

I am generally a very optimistic person and always assume the best of everyone. I would like to believe everything is going to be fine, but I just can't find any evidence to support it. :shrug:
 

Alison Swain

Senior Member
Joined
Sep 13, 2005
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Florida
Read what you wrote. Pause. Now appraise the odds of it working out that way based on the evidence of past actions of the people involved. How much support for the opinion could you garner from history?

I am generally a very optimistic person and always assume the best of everyone. I would like to believe everything is going to be fine, but I just can't find any evidence to support it. :shrug:

I know. I was just whistling past the cemetary.

Dang, Greg, can't you just let me delude myself through the holidays?! :new_all_coholic:

:rof:
 

Couch Potato

Elite Member
Joined
Mar 15, 2004
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
North Carolina
Dwayne, from a national perspective, things very well may be much better in 2008. About half the country didn't experience an unrealistic rise in prices like Florida. Recovery on a national level does not mean Florida will recover in 2008.
 
Joined
Nov 7, 2005
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Florida
I have been getting a little tiney bit of foreclosure work and the values are dropping like crazy. I saw a 23% drop since 11- 06 in one lake county area. What drives me crazy is I go curious on the situation and looked their mortgages up. They were in foreclosure within the first 9 mths of owning the home, refinance with about $40k out and was in foreclosure again within 9 months. Why did these people get the money the second time around? The lenders were greedy
 
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