When will residential business begin to turn around?

[masmia]

The residential market is miserable, when do you think it will improve.

 

[GCJim]

Here in the Northeast, there is actually some movement, if one's property is priced correctly. However, if the 'changes' that we are all anticipating go AGAINST appraisers, sorry to say, maybe NEVER for residential appraisers, unless you like doing appraisals for AMCs for peanuts.
I am very optimistic that this will not happen, and that somehow (I have a feeling) some sanity will be restored to residential lending. I sincerely hope I am correct.

 

[Frederick R. Ruffell]

I am busy (5 to 10 orders a week) but 95% REO work. 2 regular clients, FNMA and an AMC, I get FNMA standard fee and the AMC is only $25 below that. However, if they want a rush, which happens 20% of the time I can an extra $50. Also I have received fees of $400 to $550 for high value (read large GLA = more work measuring and greater liability) SFR's. I must say that I am surprised at the loyalty I feel towards this AMC. Sure they are demanding in their turn times, but after I have worked with them a short while and have developed a relationship with their staff (especially the head reviewer who is a licensed appraiser) I don't mind this AMC. I can always declin an assignment if I don't like the fee, I have yet to get them to pony up an appropriate fee for reviews or 2-4 units. They system is automated and if I keep them up to dat via the web site I do not get those annoying phone calls. I now have several of their staff members calling me directly to do assignments that require a certified appraiser rather than putting it out to bid.

Now I know I am in a bad position having only 2 regular clients but I don't know what else to do.....Comp checks maybe??????????????????? (of course USPAP compliant)

 

[realbiz]

The residential market is miserable, when do you think it will improve.

Here in my area we have over a year supply of REO homes that need to be sold, and no buyers. Everyone is waiting on the market to hit bottom. Someone please tell these borrowers exactly when we will see the bottom so they can reduce the inventory. All of my residential work is REO's.

 

[athome77]

Depending on what hapens 01/01/09, my business will never be the same.

 

[Artemis Fowl]

Seeing a little more action around here. Could be seasonal. Could be me trying a little harder to get work.

 

[Esox]

Obviously the market varies from location to location. Some parts of the country have remained stronger than others. That being said, last Wednesday at the national ERC Conference, I listened to an economist by the name of Dr. Gaines give his opinions about the state of the national market in general. His believes the market in general will require until 2010 to recover and clean up the foreclosure mess that is so prevalent in many markets.

He provided statistics showing the many 2006 vintage adjustable rate mortgages that are due to reset in 2009. These loans were generally poor in quality; low Ficos, high LTVs, poor income verification, etc. He did not elaborate on the possibility that many of the properties backing these loans were more than likely considerably over valued when they were originated. He feels these types of loans will continue to go bad, as will a significant percentage of 80/20 loans originated during that same period. The good news is origination of these types of loans faded and then disappeared early in 2007 when the feces hit the fan.

Only after that next round of foreclosures is absorbed will the market be able to move forward. There are factors that can improve this situation or exacerbate it. He feels unemployment will worsen (bad thing), but he also expects a Fed bailout of lenders (kind of a good thing). He does not predict a significant reduction of long term interest rates due to the weakness of the dollar, bonds, etc. The loss of equity in many parts of the Country has made refinancing to improve one's debt position very difficult (bad thing).

He really gave an interesting presentation. As I said, his name was Dr. Gaines. He works out of the Real Estate Center at Texas A & M University. He had graph after graph, and chart after chart. Lots of cool demographic info regarding Baby Boomers who will in many case be selling homes, and the generations following them that will be potential buyers.

I have not visited the Real Estate Center's web site as of yet, but all the info he offered is apparently available there.

Kevin

 

[REM sleep]

Busy? When will the market turn?

My crystal ball hasn't worked in a while. Any prognosticating on my part would be pure hot air! Tell the media outlets to tell the sheep that the bottom has hit and all the sheep will flock to all the REO's and end the stalemate absorb oversupply. Banks want to unload and buyers want the deal of the century. Tell CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CNN, FOX and all the other big guys to lead he sheep to the REO's and things will get better. The media is that powerful just the idea that something is getting better and people tend to feel better. Eg. the price of gas will magically drop 20 cents, everythings ok, everybody will jump back into their escalades and excursions. Magic. Same with real estate. Just feed them the idea that it's better and everyone wipes their brow with relief. Hey because Bill o'reilly or Chris Matthews told me so!!!!!!
I am busy because I have let go of my entire staff. I am back to a solo act. The nice part with blackberrys, call forwarding and laptops I can take my solo act on the road everyday. Will we get busy?.....let's hope so........................................................................................My guys are praying on it and I'd love for them to get busy again, too. good night.

 

[Tim The Enchanter]

I see I'm in the optimistic 1/3, guessing 6 -12 months.
I'm most interested in my local market of course.
Which is a former bubble market at this point in time. :new_popcornsmiley:

 

[EVAUSA]

In my County, over 2000 people entered default the first quarter '08, that's more than double the amount first quarter last year. Knowing that foreclosure can take about 6 months from NOD, then a couple more to get it sold, AT LEAST A YEAR before we hit bottom.