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Where We Are Headed - Predictions

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SANDY

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Sounds accurate to me!
 

PropertyEconomics

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A Dow 3000 sounds like opportunity to me.
 
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Outstanding article PE. The guy is spot on. I think, basically, all of his 2009 predictions will prove to be accurate. He's right about the mortgages as the Alt-A poop has yet to hit the fan. Again, good article.
 

Vernon Martin

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A very thought-provoking article, PE, and not unlike the sentiments I've had for the last year. I think most of us on the forum have been personally witnessing the reasons for much of the mess.

My question to everyone is: What are you doing with your own investment portfolio?

Normally, I've not been more successful than average at investing, but at the beginning of 2008 I took large positions in ultra-short ETFs SRS (real estate) and SKF (financial), while also shorting Lehman Brothers, Freddie Mac, Flagstar and Staples. I was long in solar and oil stocks at the beginning of the year, sold the solar but staid too long in oil.
I closed all my short positions in mid-November, in expectations of the typical year-end rally (which even happened in 1929). The results were the best year I have ever had as an investor.

I bought Yamana Gold at $3.97 per share in the fall and am now wondering if I should sell it now that it's at $7.65 per share. I bought gold because I thought the overwhelming stimulus packages and printing of funny money was inherently inflationary, but the subject article predicts strong deflation as a result of debt implosion.

I also bought back SRS at $51 per share on Friday anticipating bad news for commercial real estate all year long. It was at $234.20 per share when I sold it in November. SRS is designed to go up at twice the rate that real estate stocks go down. In actuality, I don't see SRS following this pattern and wonder if I should be concerned.

You all are the real estate experts. What do you think?
 
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PropertyEconomics

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Elite Member
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Jun 19, 2007
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New Mexico
A very thought-provoking article, PE, and not unlike the sentiments I've had for the last year. I think most of us on the forum have been personally witnessing the reasons for much of the mess.

My question to everyone is: What are you doing with your own investment portfolio?

Normally, I've not been more successful than average at investing, but at the beginning of 2008 I took large positions in ultra-short ETFs SRS (real estate) and SKF (financial), while also shorting Lehman Brothers, Freddie Mac, Flagstar and Staples. I was long in solar and oil stocks at the beginning of the year, sold the solar but staid too long in oil.
I closed all my short positions in mid-November, in expectations of the typical year-end rally (which even happened in 1929). The results were the best year I have every had as an investor.

I bought Yamana Gold at $3.97 per share in the fall and am now wondering if I should sell it now that it's at $7.65 per share. I bought gold because I thought the overwhelming stimulus packages and printing of funny money was inherently inflationary, but the subject article predicts strong deflation as a result of debt implosion.

I also bought back SRS at $51 per share on Friday anticipating bad news for commercial real estate all year long. It was at $234.20 per share when I sold it in November. SRS is designed to go up at twice the rate that real estate stocks go down. In actuality, I don't see SRS following this pattern and wonder if I should be concerned.

You all are the real estate experts. What do you think?


Vernon .. I have read that commercial real estate will fall to the tune of something between $2 and $5 TRILLION ... if SRS holds true to history that will bode well for you.
As for me personally, I am dabbling right now. Nearly all of my holdings are in cash ... I purchased Ford at $1.05 per share and believe they will be the winner in the Big Three Shake out. I would love to get into gold but I want gold coin instead of gold stock but dont think that is the play just yet. I have always thought a Dow of 6,000 was reasonable but reading this article, and it jives with what I thought, around March or April, so I will be sitting on the sidelines until then. Cash will be king and fortunes are to be made in this comming collapse. That is my thought.
3M, Johnson&Johnson, GE (at the right price), Proctor & Gamble, all things I am lookign very seriously at.

By the way, I dont own anything, other than Ford because it was so cheap, that doesnt pay a dividend. I want to be paid to own the stock. I think Mutual Funds are a joke and will not pay someone else to buy for me, because essentially thats all they do. I use DRIPs (Dividend Re-Investment Plans) directly from the companies as my investment vehicle when I invest. I pulled out of the market about mid summer, I may have not achieved some gains I had potentially, but I didnt lose anything like my friends ... tough year.

My $0.02
 
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moh malekpour

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Boy, I thought Roubini and Schiff are bear. This guy is a real Grizzly bear. His only positive prediction was that consumer saving is going to change from negative saving rate to 4% or maybe even 10% in 2009 but with his economic prediction, how in the world people are going to save when they are all in debt? You can only save what you have. You cannot save what you don't have. 4% or 10% saving of nothing is nothing.
The US Consumer will go from a negative savings rate to a seriously-positive one. I am predicting 4% in 2009 but it could go as high as 10%
 

PropertyEconomics

Thread Starter
Elite Member
Joined
Jun 19, 2007
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
New Mexico
Boy, I thought Roubini and Schiff are bear. This guy is a real Grizzly bear. His only positive prediction was that consumer saving is going to change from negative saving rate to 4% or maybe even 10% in 2009 but with his economic prediction, how in the world people are going to save when they are all in debt? You can only save what you have. You cannot save what you don't have. 4% or 10% saving of nothing is nothing.


Moh .. I believe that consumers are saving right now. While they have mountains of debt, they are ceasing to create more, and they have cut back severely on consumer spending and are saving every nickle they can in fear of whats next. I think consumer saving falls right in line with the predictions, although I would think 10% is a bit aggressive.
 
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