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Which Is It?

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BRCJR

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Article by Harney, published by AP, indicated FHA volume was about 25% +/-
Appraisal Today indicates FHA volume about 11-12% +/-
 

gregb

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Per HUD-

https://portal.HUD.gov/hudportal/HUD?src=/program_offices/housing/rmra/oe/rpts/fhamktsh/fhamktqtrly
 

timd354

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Article by Harney, published by AP, indicated FHA volume was about 25% +/-
Appraisal Today indicates FHA volume about 11-12% +/-
Neither are correct. Per the latest market share stats published by HUD (2016 - Q3) which can be found here https://portal.HUD.gov/hudportal/HUD?src=/program_offices/housing/rmra/oe/rpts/fhamktsh/fhamktqtrly
https://portal.HUD.gov/hudportal/HUD?src=/program_offices/housing/rmra/oe/rpts/fhamktsh/fhamktqtrly
The market share for FHA during fiscal year 2016 is 16.9% (22.0% of purchases) based on loan count or 13.2% (17.3% of purchases) based on dollar volume
 

A K

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Table 1 data is pretty interesting stuff. Clearly shows FHA share dipping between 2003 and 2007 when subprime became popular and then big jump in share post financial crisis. FHA pretty much side stepped the bubble years.
 
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A K

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One of them might be correct. We are now in Q1-2017. Harney and appraisal today may be talking about Q4-2016.

If I had to guess I would think Appraisal Today is correct at 11%-12% based on historical data. Does not seem like FHA has ever had 25% market share in it's history. It is possible that Appraisal Today is talking about national and Harney is talking about local.
 

A K

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TimD is probably right that Harney is talking about purchase share and Appraisal Today is talking about total share.
 

timd354

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Table 1 data is pretty interesting stuff. Clearly shows FHA share dipping between 2003 and 2007 when subprime became popular and then big jump in share post financial crisis.
Not only did FHA's market share dip in the 2003-2007 time frame, so did the GSE's as subprime became the biggest source of mortgages during that time period. That is one reason why people who think that the GSE's were a primary cause of the bubble have not analyzed what happened. Here is some very interesting information that shows how much market share the GSE's and Ginnie Mae (the Agencies) lost and how much market share that Non-agency/private securitizations (which included virtually all of the subprime and Alt-A garbage) gained at that time :

upload_2017-3-23_12-26-36.png
 

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BRCJR

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djd09

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Nobody thinks the GSEs caused the bubble but they sure did get a Big Bailout.
 

A K

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Maryland
Nobody thinks the GSEs caused the bubble but they sure did get a Big Bailout.

The bailout benefited the public only. I think they repaid all of the money and then some. Shareholders were pretty much wiped out.
 
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