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Why Am I Not Buying It?

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Alison Swain

Thread Starter
Senior Member
Joined
Sep 13, 2005
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Florida
Here's a response by our local realty board's communications dude to comments I and others made on another forum concerning his prediction on local TV of higher home prices in six months (I said that I'd like to get some of whatever he's smoking):

Since I was the one who said it, let me restate for those of you who did not see the interview or hear it properly. I said that over every 5 year period since we started tracking everything, the prices have gone up, and that is what has happened over the last 5 years as well. And if you bought a home today, I can pretty well guarantee that if you sell it in 5 years you will sell for a higher price. And yes, I truly believe that the last two months of slight increases in home prices will be followed by 5-6 more months of slight increases. The bottom hit about two to three months ago, and while all increases will not be the dramatic unprecedented rise of 2001-2005, prices ARE on the rebound.=20 If you have not been tracking the statistics, you might find some surprisingly good news out there.
If you are positive, you will sell more homes to more satisfied people.
We keep criticizing the media, when in fact, we were reporting good news to them and they were listening.
Any more good news, we are more than happy to get that out there as well.
Thanks for sharing!
Gary Balanoff
Communications Committee Chair
Broker-Owner
RE/MAX Select
 

Caterina Platt

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Joined
Jan 17, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
New Mexico
It appears that only a portion of his anaylsis is completed (speaking appraiser wise). He's looking at the market stats in MLS, but forgetting to factor in the national news, Fannie, Freddie, etc. I'm not sure I'd have the guts to say the bottom was already hit, but maybe his pshycic lady encouraged him to believe it. ????

While focussing on our local market experience and statistics is key, we also need to keep our ears to the national and international markets. Mortgage money is tight, the lender guidelines keep changing, and the economy is not making those potential buyers any stronger at the moment.

Were I him, I'd be more than happy to state that I'd seen several months of small increases and it's a good sign, but I'd be damned if I'd proclaim I'd found bottom. I don't think anyone can state that with certainty as of yet.
 
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Charles Witt

Senior Member
Joined
Dec 13, 2002
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Delaware
In my county, only 53% of the sales are reproted in Trend MLS. So if one uses their statistics they are reporting only HALF of the market data.m2:
 

Alison Swain

Thread Starter
Senior Member
Joined
Sep 13, 2005
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Florida
In my county, only 53% of the sales are reproted in Trend MLS. So if one uses their statistics they are reporting only HALF of the market data.m2:

Excellent point. We have over 4,500 foreclosures in the Orlando market area. How many of those are even listed in MLS?
 

Kevin Keck

Junior Member
Joined
Jun 2, 2006
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Ohio
Your local realty communications dude is in sales. The truth frequently escapes those in sales. His statements are amusing but hardly surprising.
 

Vernon Martin

Senior Member
Joined
Jun 8, 2005
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
California
It's always a case of "Consider the source".
 

timd354

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Joined
Jan 11, 2008
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Maryland
A realtor who is telling lies about the real estate market....now there's a real shocker. Remember, according to realtors, the market is really always the: according to the realtors, yesterday was a great time to buy a house, today is even a better time to buy a house and today is the best time to buy a house we will likely see in our lifetimes, and tommorrow prices will be much higher, so you had better buy a house today.
 

Offshore

Senior Member
Joined
Dec 25, 2005
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
North Carolina
I began reading from the bottom. When I saw RE/MAX Select I saw no need to continue. :new_smile-l:
 

Mztk1

Senior Member
Joined
Dec 3, 2006
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Florida
The 5 year thing is an interesting theory but it is totally incorrect. Expensive wars, WWI, WWII, Vietnam, Iraq I, and even a slight dip during a recovery at the start of the Korean War in 1950 show prolonged housing slumps. We are in a very expensive war and the housing slump will be long indeed. Look at the chart below. War is simply not good for our business.

http://www.burbed.com/2006/09/15/a-history-home-value-trends/
 

Marcia Langley

Senior Member
Joined
Aug 26, 2005
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Missouri
If you are positive, you will sell more homes to more satisfied people.


Alison,

I don't know whether you also wear an agent's hat but he is speaking to you as if you did.

That sentence is the sum of his motivation for anything else he says.

It's easy to check the trends in your market. Just run your own statistics out of MLS.

One month uptick is not enough to call a turn in the trend.
 
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