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Will Freddie Mac Dilute Shares?

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Marcia Langley

Senior Member
Joined
Aug 26, 2005
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Missouri
Even doomy-gloomy me thought the GSE's were oversold, especially Freddie when it went under $4/share.

But it appears they will be headed back that way with the planned dilution of their stock.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/freddie-mac-commits-raising-55/story.aspx?guid=%7B6CD3FE43-FCD9-448C-A471-DFA814BA9921%7D&dist=msr_9


"While we view the steps FRE is taking to raise capital positively, we believe interest from outside investors is limited and we expect any capital injection will be highly dilutive to common shareholders," Kevin Cole, an analyst at Standard & Poor's Equity Research, wrote in a note to clients on Friday.

I think their total cap is only about $6B.
 
"I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fool's paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future."
- E. H. H. Simmons, President, New York Stock Exchange, January 12, 1928
 
I think fannie/freddie's capital together is about $83.2 billion and their debt is about $5.2 trillion. This is a ratio of 1 to 65. with that margin, no bank or institution could sell security with AAA rating. They were able to do it because investors had illusion that if something went wrong, the US government was going to back them up and they were right.
Now that they are in trouble, the government is going to bail them out or nationalize them. In either case, their stock price may come down.
If they are bailed out, they are going to get more regulations and be limited in their activities, which means less income, and less gross.
If they are nationalized, their stockholders are going to pay the high price for their illusions
If they are bailed out, I don't think regulators are going to let them to do business as usual anymore, I hope not. Did you know that they were buying sub prime and Alt-A loans too and they were using desktop valuation and underwriting for their prime loans? Did you know that the creation of drive by and acceptance of AVM as a valuation for their loans were mainly for getting more loans closed and going around the traditional way of doing business? These all were done because they wanted to get the institution bigger, their shares higher and their salaries and pensions and incentives larger. If they are backed by the government, the service should be their goal not the stock price or their pensions.
 
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"No Congress of the United States ever assembled, on surveying the state of the Union, has met with a more pleasing prospect than that which appears at the present time. In the domestic field there is tranquility and contentment...and the highest record of years of prosperity. In the foreign field there is peace, the goodwill which comes from mutual understanding."
- Calvin Coolidge December 4, 1928
 
Robert Rubin spoke early in 2000 at the height of the internet bubble to a group put together and keynoted speaker Jack Grubman who was a stock analyst and close friend of Bernie Ebbers, the WorldCom creator who is now in jail. Rubin argued "a new paradigm that renders irrelevant so many traditional concerns about downturns, risk and sound policy....would be contrary to all of human history..." Grubman shrugged it off but one on his arch rivals, also at the meeting was one Susan Kalla, an independent telecom stock analyst who oft disagreed with Grubman. The following morning Susan Kalla called her stock broker and sold off all her telecom stocks.....Grubman? He was banned from Wall Street forever and paid a large settlement.

BTW, in the middle of that was none other than Henry (Hank) Paulson...our Tres. Sec'y. The head of the NYSE, a fellow by the name of Richard Grasso was recently exonerated by a court over allegations pursued by former DA and ousted Gov. Spitzer.... Grasso once called Paulson a "snake"....all the above from "Blood on the Streets, a book by Charles Gasparino.

20 years earlier it was a bank called Penn Square in Oklahoma City which sold oil field loans to eager banks like Chase Manhattan, Seattle First, and Continental of Ill. Same mentality. The banker, a man who often showed up at work wearing mickey mouse ears or batman ears that wiggled, etc. by the name of Bill Patterson. His boss was "old family" banker from the small town of Healdton, OK. He lent anyone any amount...millions and Chase Manhattan, etc. goobled these loans up without even proper documentation... so. Who was at fault?.. the crooked banker or the greedy big bank begging to be gored?...The banker flew to NY and Chicago to sell these deals without any proof that the assets claimed even existed. People like that were called "pigeon stalkers"....and big banks should have worn shirts that said "cheat me" on them.

It is hard to keep a score card on who is the crookedest. Fannie management? The banks that sold these crummy deals? The politicos who pushed for more and more loans in the cause of "home ownership"? Insiders off Wall St. now calling the shots for the government like Paulson...they are either sapient fools or incredibly clever thieves.

Fannie/Freddy will be diluted. The liquidity problem remains. Since it is obvious (and should have been from the earliest times) Fannie and Freddie will be bailed out regardless the scope of problem, the presence of fraud, the damage done the taxpayer pocket....Wall Street will ride them to zero because they can and make money all the way down...knowing full well the Government will ride to the rescue, paying off their bribe and cutting the stockholder's value to zero.
 
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