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Zillow Offers $ Million Prize

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AMF13

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California
Winning algorithms stand to impact the home values of 110M homes across the U.S.

Steaming pile from Mr Bull. :fencing:
 

Elliott

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Apr 23, 2002
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So they are going to award the algorithm that best predicts prices in the LA area. How is that going to be applicable to the rest of the US? Some one will guess right over the 8 month period and win the lottery (reminds me of CNBC which gives a monthly award predicting the number of new jobs created. I seriously doubt anyone won the award more than once.).

Big fallacy in their method and thinking.
 

AMF13

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Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
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So they are going to award the algorithm that best predicts prices in the LA area.

Assuming you don't mean Louisiana.

This market is so fragmented. :rof:

Say your prayers snowball. :leeann2:
 

Meandering

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Feb 26, 2006
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Real Estate Agent or Broker
State
Pennsylvania
The algorithm is easy.

Throw out the big data in favor of micro data.

Add in ego factor and lose lending regs and viola!

LA property values solved.

This isn't rocket science Zillow, it's LOCAL science.

.
 

Terrel L. Shields

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(reminds me of CNBC which gives a monthly award predicting the number of new jobs created. I seriously doubt anyone won the award more than once.).
If you write enough algorithms then one will be closer than the other. Same with climate models. Over 1,000 climate models and one matches the actual data closer than the others. You are fooled by Randomness. But before the data were in, could you predict which model was best?
 

techbiker

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Dec 4, 2015
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Throw in enough variables, data, a ton of man hours, and powerful computers and you will get pretty close.

The real stumbling block to Zillow's efforts is they cannot collect enough data. How could Zillow potentially factor in the negative impact of the trash smell that often wafts 100 ft from a daycare dumpster to a home due to prevailing winds without "boots on the ground"?
 

Meandering

Elite Member
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Professional Status
Real Estate Agent or Broker
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When a computer accurately predicts your reactions,

either, that doesn't say much for your creativity,

or that the box you live in is too small.

.
 

J Grant

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Dec 9, 2003
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Florida
Looks like Zillow will pay 1 million $ for nothing more than tweaking algorithms. Neither they, nor any online service can predict with exact precision prices because sold data is behind future prices, and nothing can predict what the future will hold for any particular property transaction.

While their site recommends getting an appraisal, they fail to recognize the essential difference between an appraisal and an estimate.. A "value" estimate is really a data derived price point..

An appraisal is a model of the most probable price a property should bring, (as developed by the appraisal itself) Since an appraisal is not meant to be a price prediction, it does not have to be within X% of a sale price, like a game show where contestants win prizes for guessing the exact price tag of a consumer product. That said, credible appraisal opinions can be equivalent to sale prices when a property is sold at MV terms.

For a million $ I'll come up with a better name than Zestimate ! which sounds like a fruit drink.
 
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Tom Woolford

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Nov 20, 2005
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Florida
If someone accomplished this miracle of computer nerdery, why wouldn't they just make their own site with Zillow as a model, and blow the big Z out of the water? Million be damned when there are 100's of millions at stake.
 
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