Abolish TAF?

[shrubberyvaluation]

His "proof" of that failure is noting that 90% of appraisers don't make time adjustments. Is that proof of what he asserts?

If appraisers don't do market analysis and don't make time adjustments, how is that the fault of anyone other than the appraisers doing the work?

I would say its part laziness and part capture by the clients. If the clients care more about cheap and fast, and keep working with appraisers who made 0 market condition adjustments during the COVID boom I can place blame on them too.

I don't make time adjustments either, I do make adjustments for changing market conditions however.

 

[shrubberyvaluation]

“The appraiser regulatory system promotes cooperation and a true understanding of different perspectives. My vision for the Foundation is to champion unity and drive collective growth through strong partnerships and purposeful collaboration.”​

Kelly Davids, President of The Appraisal Foundation®

spoken like a true socialist...hey frank, is she even licensed?

Translation, results don't matter, we will say whatever we need to for funding and that is our only goal.

It would be like an organization of referees saying this. Agreeing that a ball down the center is a ball rather than a strike as long as they get money, understanding that different perspective.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

If the clients care more about cheap and fast, and keep working with appraisers who made 0 market condition adjustments

I still question the usefulness of localizing market condition adjustments on the basis of only a few sales, especially in a small sample of the total sales population. Just one or two above market sales, or the apparent above market sale (such as when a given property is in far better condition) skews the sales just as a couple of below market sales 3 months ago or so, skews the results in the same errant direction.

So the question is can I do a "paired sale" that is valid to extract a time adjustment using only 2 sales? Can I extrapolate an adjustment based upon even a handful of sales plotting x y then drawing a trend line? And how big is the variation from the average? Can we use that? Or are we chasing randomness and calling it market conditions? I believe monthly changes in "price" reflect nothing. There is a spring market in many areas. Hard to sell houses in January in Alaska I'd imagine. And to do so might mean taking a lower price than in summer. Then ask yourself, as the number of listings ebb and flow, does it impact the competition in hot markets? You can't buy what is not on the market. But is that trend extended into the future or will the market simply revert to its mean?

 

[Zoe]

I still question the usefulness of localizing market condition adjustments on the basis of only a few sales, especially in a small sample of the total sales population. Just one or two above market sales, or the apparent above market sale (such as when a given property is in far better condition) skews the sales just as a couple of below market sales 3 months ago or so, skews the results in the same errant direction.

So the question is can I do a "paired sale" that is valid to extract a time adjustment using only 2 sales? Can I extrapolate an adjustment based upon even a handful of sales plotting x y then drawing a trend line? And how big is the variation from the average? Can we use that? Or are we chasing randomness and calling it market conditions? I believe monthly changes in "price" reflect nothing. There is a spring market in many areas. Hard to sell houses in January in Alaska I'd imagine. And to do so might mean taking a lower price than in summer. Then ask yourself, as the number of listings ebb and flow, does it impact the competition in hot markets? You can't buy what is not on the market. But is that trend extended into the future or will the market simply revert to its mean?

Yeah. The real property rights is so dymanic. Appraisers appraise real property right. Real property rights are constantly changing.

My concern is many appraisers don't know the local market as much as they think. Local market in real property rights is very important. Crucial.

 

[Joe Flacco]

I was making big adjustments in 2020-2022. Making adjustments based on quarter-to-quarter changes or month-to-month changes is pretty stupid to me. Whoever the people are that came up with that idea probably don't actually perform appraisals or look at data under the hood on a regular basis.

 

[Joe Flacco]

And then if you look at the months of supply, you can see the change in market conditions that flattened the trend. You can see the balance of supply and demand moving away from sellers when It started moving higher off the lows in the second half of 2022. Then the spike in 2024 was the nail in the coffin for the increasing price trend. The months of supply is still moving higher, so we will see what happens, but data from other zips and neighborhoods shows that prices do not decline until the months of supply is much higher.