review appraisals ugggh!

[WadeKoutnik]

I think this is a big area of concern. There really is no EXACT way to determine this.

What is the market?

The city, county, zip code, __ mile radius, subdivision?

What exactly is the neighborhood on rural properties?

What is the time frame?

If the subject is not in a PUD or defined subdivision and there are comparable properties that have sold for similar amounts over the last 6-9 months..
Is this stable?

While most markets have declinED I think some of you do a disservice by simply thinking EVERYTHING is declining because MOST markets are. I think it is on a case by case basis and there are plenty of stable markets amongst declining ones.

 

[444nutman]

I think this is a big area of concern. There really is no EXACT way to determine this.

What is the market?

The city, county, zip code, __ mile radius, subdivision?

What exactly is the neighborhood on rural properties?

What is the time frame?

If the subject is not in a PUD or defined subdivision and there are comparable properties that have sold for similar amounts over the last 6-9 months..
Is this stable?

While most markets have declinED I think some of you do a disservice by simply thinking EVERYTHING is declining because MOST markets are. I think it is on a case by case basis and there are plenty of stable markets amongst declining ones.

That is why I run a graph, analyze the market year by year, month, by month. I think a disservice is having some canned comment on market conditions. What that guy wrote was not an analysis but some drivel he came up with on his own and has been using for the last 5 years. What did his market conditions tell you? I list all listing, pendings and even discuss expired listings, # of sales within the last year, 6 months, 90 days. I also list sales month to month over the last year. I report the number of sales the year prior as well. My adjustment are supported by data which is included in every report. I dont know about Jacksonville but Central florida you have areas with absorption rates coming close to 4 years. There are some cities I have not covered but if you can show me a stable market in Central Florida(other than a few in Polk) anytime in 2008 with data to support your analysis, I will mail you a 6 pack of your favorite malted beverage I have not marked one stable in my 6 counties since I cant remeber. I know I have in 2007 not 2008. I get tired of local guys trying to explain the market is stable but conviently never add any data or numbers to support it.

 

[Bill_FL]

Reviews.....

I have one where there are 46 competing active listings and only 3 sales in the last 6 months (reasonable substitutes). Stable is marked.

Stable, as in values? What you are describing is marketing/exposure time estimates, not values. The fact that a market is increasing, stable or in declination on your form has to do with values, not the number of listings or sales. You need to prove that the sales prices are declining. So far, all you have found is that there are 46 listings and 3 sales in six months.

I certainly hope you reviewers & appraisers are not using the above kind of stats to develop your opinion of market conditions and the resulting pressures they have on sales prices. It may be that there are a lot of listings, but no sellers are taking less than they did last year, year before, etc. So, it simply is a reflection of estimated marketing and exposure times. NOT value.

If an appraisal I had done was reviewed, and that was the kind of info used to attempt to say I had done it wrong, I would simply shred the reviewer.

 

[WadeKoutnik]

That is why I run a graph, analyze the market year by year, month, by month. I think a disservice is having some canned comment on market conditions. What that guy wrote was not an analysis but some drivel he came up with on his own and has been using for the last 5 years. What did his market conditions tell you? I list all listing, pendings and even discuss expired listings, # of sales within the last year, 6 months, 90 days. I also list sales month to month over the last year. I report the number of sales the year prior as well. My adjustment are supported by data which is included in every report. I dont know about Jacksonville but Central florida you have areas with absorption rates coming close to 4 years. There are some cities I have not covered but if you can show me a stable market in Central Florida(other than a few in Polk) anytime in 2008 with data to support your analysis, I will mail you a 6 pack of your favorite malted beverage I have not marked one stable in my 6 counties since I cant remeber. I know I have in 2007 not 2008. I get tired of local guys trying to explain the market is stable but conviently never add any data or numbers to support it.

Only a 6 pack?? My typical fee is at least a 12 pack. Are you taking 6 off the top for yourself?

LOL I was more saying that the whole idea is flawed. Not really singling anyone out. It leaves so much open that you could basically use numbers to prove decreasing, stable and maybe even increasing in some cases.

 

[Bearslide]

Stable, as in values? What you are describing is marketing/exposure time estimates, not values. The fact that a market is increasing, stable or in declination on your form has to do with values, not the number of listings or sales. You need to prove that the sales prices are declining. So far, all you have found is that there are 46 listings and 3 sales in six months.

I certainly hope you reviewers & appraisers are not using the above kind of stats to develop your opinion of market conditions and the resulting pressures they have on sales prices. It may be that there are a lot of listings, but no sellers are taking less than they did last year, year before, etc. So, it simply is a reflection of estimated marketing and exposure times. NOT value.

If an appraisal I had done was reviewed, and that was the kind of info used to attempt to say I had done it wrong, I would simply shred the reviewer.

I agree with you, Bill. But that is how lenders think, at least some of them. I just had to explain to a wet-behind-the-ears UW that while there are a number of actives and few sales, neither sales or listings indicate a decline in VALUE. Now, IF, at some future point in time those actives sell for far less than what they are listed at, and less than their original sales price, well alrighty then, we have a decline - but as of effective date of appraisal, we have a stable market with oversupply.

And I have to agree with someone else who posted - it IS neighborhood by neighborhood. While most of our general area is stable to slightly appreciating, there are pockets of decline - predominantly in the large national builder developments that were geared to Maryland buyers, using a "preferred lender" (can you spell Tan Man). I was just in one and was shocked - 18 actives, all short sales. 4 sales in a year - 1 a relo without benefit of a relo company, 2 short sales and one a dump by the builder at $60k less than same model last year, and 3 pendings, all short sales. Yeah, baby - that's a decline - all of them are offered or have sold below last sales price just 1-2 years ago. Care to guess who the "preferred lender" was, on all of them? Tan, tan, waaaaaay too tan.........(wonder if he has a private tanning bed at FNC HQ)

 

[Bill_FL]

Fun huh Bear? What some appraisers don't understand is that the form is asking about values - not just a decline is "general market conditions". Someone here a few months ago said anyone in Florida not checking declining was an idiot. I replied, then I must be an idiot, because in my market area, I have yet to see a decline. Its VERY flat, but not declining. He asked about numbers of listings to numbers of sales...sigh...

Oh well. At least I am still having fun!

 

[redfish]

Stable, as in values? What you are describing is marketing/exposure time estimates, not values. The fact that a market is increasing, stable or in declination on your form has to do with values, not the number of listings or sales. You need to prove that the sales prices are declining. So far, all you have found is that there are 46 listings and 3 sales in six months.

I certainly hope you reviewers & appraisers are not using the above kind of stats to develop your opinion of market conditions and the resulting pressures they have on sales prices. It may be that there are a lot of listings, but no sellers are taking less than they did last year, year before, etc. So, it simply is a reflection of estimated marketing and exposure times. NOT value.

If an appraisal I had done was reviewed, and that was the kind of info used to attempt to say I had done it wrong, I would simply shred the reviewer.

Smoking Potts, revisit econ 101. I have more analysis than just the current inventory, I was simply keeping my post short and sweet and making a point akin to the OPs. I would love to see a market with that kind of inventory/sale volumes that is not declining.

 

[LordofTexas]

Tim Hicks (Texas) says "Overall, 80% of appraisers are idiots."

Yep, thank God for the other 35% of us!

 

[Smokey Bear]

Fun huh Bear?

Huh? Oh, there's a pretender on this board, thinks she's a bear. Confusing. :-(

 

[Bill_FL]

Smoking Potts, revisit econ 101. I have more analysis than just the current inventory, I was simply keeping my post short and sweet and making a point akin to the OPs. I would love to see a market with that kind of inventory/sale volumes that is not declining.

Redfish. First, please do not call name's. I for one do not appreciate it. I referenced your post, for what it said. I prefer not to assume that you have more info than that, as you did not refer to values anywhere in your post, simply that the number of listings and sales would indicate a declining market. I responded to it because I have seen others post similar statements.

PS. Tommorrow morning, I hope to be catching my limit of your type. Would not mind a few oversized ones to fight either. The tarpon are just beggining to get into my area and will be taking a few casting rods for them as well.